2022 Breeders Cup Friday Preview and Tips – DS
2022 Breeders Cup Friday Preview and Tips
Unfortunately, it wasn’t to be for our 2022 Melbourne Cup selection. It was all going to plan initially. Interpretation broke well, got a lovely forward position on the rail and a mile out, I was rubbing my hands with glee. However, he stopped as though shot and was pulled up, seemingly due to a wind issue. Let’s hope we back healthier horses in America on Friday and Saturday at Keeneland. Check out Dave Stevos’ 2022 Breeders Cup Friday tips below.
7.00 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (Grade 2)
The sprint track at Keeneland is pretty fair as it goes. Golden Pal won this race the last time it was held at this track and he bounced out from the outside stall to make all. Having a fast start is pretty important no matter where you are drawn because there is a bit of time to get into a decent position before they start turning. Some say it is a disadvantage to be drawn on the inside but if a front runner is drawn 1 and pings the gates, I don’t see how that can be a negative.
From stall 1, I don’t think Lady Hollywood should be anywhere near as big as 25/1. Ok, she flopped in the Lowther but that was over 6f and her form over 5f is mustard. I was at Naas the day she won her Listed and she was far too quick for her rivals. The 2nd won a Listed next time out, the 3rd has since won a Listed and a G3 so it is pretty rock solid form.
After her Lowther run, Alice Haynes’ filly headed to Longchamp where she won a G3 quite comfortably. The runner up, 1.25L behind Lady Hollywood, was only beat 2.75L in a G1 next time so again, the form stacks up. This filly has already won going round a left handed bend at Lingfield and a decent, US based jockey has been booked. 25/1 looks a wrong price to me and at those odds, Lady Hollywood is worth backing e/w.
2022 Breeders Cup Friday Tips: Lady Hollywood e/w @ 25/1 (4 places) NB
7.40 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (Grade 1)
The first Breeders’ Cup dirt race of the weekend is this one for the 2yo Fillies. A max field of 14 will go to post and it’s 4/1 the field. On the dirt track at Keeneland it is usually a disadvantage to be drawn wide, even over middle distances. The extremely classy Songbird defied a wide draw when winning here in 2015, so it is not impossible, but she was head and shoulders above her rivals that day and she would have won from any draw.
The one I like at huge odds here is Sabra Tuff for Dallas Stewart and Paco Lopez. By Cross Traffic, this filly’s sole win came over 5f. However, she shaped as if in need of further on her first couple of starts in stakes company and her last run, over today’s C&D, was her best. She was drawn 13 that day and her jockey took a pull at the start and switched her all the way to the inside. That manoeuvre probably cost her 3 or 4 lengths and she was dropped out in rear.
She cut through the field nicely as they turned for home but the first three home had flown. Stewart’s charge did finish off her race really nicely though and she ended up in 5th, just over 6L behind the winner Wonder Wheel. It’ll be a big ask to reverse that form but Sabra Tuff has a better draw today in 4 so her jockey won’t have to give as much ground away at the start. If she can get to within 2L of Wonder Wheel and Chop Chop, that might be enough to sneak place money. So, at odds of 66/1, Sabra Tuff is the e/w selection.
2022 Breeders Cup Friday Tips: Sabra Tuff e/w @ 66/1 (4 places)
8.20 – Juvenile Fillies Turf (Grade 1)
Meditate is the jolly for this 8f heat and this could determine where she starts off next year. She holds an entry in the Irish Guineas and she has already won over 7f, so you’d imagine she’ll be fine on a flat track like this over a mile. Her form is rock solid and it is hard to see her finishing out of the frame. However, I am going to take a chance on another Irish raider, Spirit Gal from the Willie Browne yard.
Charles Fipke sent Browne this horse and he has done a great job with her. By Invincible Spirit, she needed the experience of her first couple of runs but the penny has now dropped. She landed a Naas maiden (6f gd) on her third start and she then took the step into stakes company in her considerable stride, hacking up in a 7f Listed contest at Dundalk.
She had Cairo over 2L back in 2nd and she hosed up in a G3 by a similar distance next time. Pearling Path, rated 97, was 5L back in 3rd. She is already proven on good ground so conditions are ideal and judging by how she ran through the line last time at Dundalk, this trip should hold no fears. 18/1 looks a big price about this talented filly, she is well worth backing e/w.
2022 Breeders Cup Friday Tips: Spirit Gal e/w @ 18/1 (4 places) NAP
9.00 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (grade 1)
Cave Rock is odds on for this 8f dirt G1. He is 3/3 now, winning those three races, including a pair of G1s, by a combined distance of 16.5L. An uncomplicated, prominent racer, he has a lovely draw in stall 3. National Treasure chased him home at Santa Anita last time but he could only get to within 5.25L of the son of Arrogate. It is hard to see a different result tonight and this could be one for the fav backers.
One that might stay on for a place at a price is Lost Ark. He was mightily impressive on his first two starts. A debut win at Belmont (5.5f) was followed by an even wider margin win at Monmouth Park over 8f. Last month he stepped into G1 company for the first time over today’s C&D and it went wrong early. An early bump saw him shuffled back to the rear of the field, not ideal for a horse that is usually up with the pace.
Found More Trouble
However, Todd Pletcher’s charge showed he had stomach for the fight by staying on late to finish 6th of 14, 10L behind his stablemate Forte (a 4/1 shot today). He again found trouble turning for home but when Flavien Prat gave him one smack he really quickened in the home straight, even though the race was over as a contest. Luis Saez now takes over and if he can thread a clearer passage, Lost Ark has the ability to get a lot closer to Forte tonight. At 25/1, he is the e/w selection.
2022 Breeders Cup Friday Tips: Lost Ark e/w @ 25/1
9.40 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (Grade 1)
A pair of European challengers head the market for the night’s feature. Silver Knott is the clear 11/8 fav for Appleby and Buick. He has won three of his last four, including successive G3s on his last two starts. It seems that good ground is key to the son of Lope De Vega so he should be right at home here. Appleby has won two of the last four renewals so clearly, this horse is entitled to maximum respect.
The next best in the betting is Victoria Road for O’Brien and Moore. They have combined to win this race a record four times, the last coming with Mendelssohn in 2017. Coolmore will be extremely keen to get a G1 win into his sire Saxon Warrior. He has had one place at the top table but so far, a G3 winner is the best he has produced. This colt has won his last three, his last win coming over 9f on easy ground at Chantilly. Will this speedier test suit him? I’m not so sure.
Go With Good
The last US trainer to win this was Michael Maker last year with Fire At Will. He returned at 33/1 and he has another one at a similar price tonight. Really Good, a son of Hard Spun, shaped very nicely in a C&D G2 last time out and while he has 3.5L to find with Andthewinneris on that run, that doesn’t tell the whole story.
Maker’s charge was bumped early and had to travel four deep throughout. His jockey had to rein him back as a horse lost ground directly in front of him half a mile out. Then, in the straight he got mullered by the winner as he came down the outside and his jockey had to snatch him up. That cost him any chance but once he got daylight, he finished off very nicely for 3rd.
This horse has a serious amount of ability, it has just possibly been a lack of experience that has held him back the last twice. He also got squeezed for room on his previous start at Kentucky but on the plus side, those two runs should have taught him plenty. It might be the case that he needs another race or two to show his full ability but even so, at odds of 33/1, it is worth chancing that Really Good puts it all together tonight.
