2022 Brazil GP Raceday Update and Betting Tips – JP
2022 Brazil GP Raceday Update and Tips
Our luck went from bad to worse with the self destructing Alpines in the Sprint Race yesterday. Onwards and upwards, now, it is time for his 2022 Brazil GP Raceday Update, see who he is backing below.
2022 Brazil GP Raceday
Nothing much has gone as expected so far this weekend but let’s try and find something to repair at least some of the damage.
It has been a confusing weekend with the relative form of the cars moving around more than usual. A result of the Sprint race weekend format? Possibly.
The final grid for today’s race has now been set and it is like the old days with Mercedes locking out the front row and the two Red Bulls the second row. Russell won the sprint race and the question now is, did he win it because the Mercedes is a faster car, or did Verstappen lose it because his car was damaged, and he was on the wrong tyres.
Strange Decision
Red Bull deciding to run the medium tyre as opposed to the soft was a strange one. The soft was going to be faster but the thought was that the mediums durability would mean it was the better tyre for the last 12 laps or so. By that stage Verstappen had picked up some damage after hitting debris and then lost a wing endplate when being overtaken. Clearly, we didn’t see the true pace of Verstappen’s Red Bull.
What can’t be denied is that the Mercedes was quick. Hamilton made up a lot of places from his 8th place and he beat Perez fair and square. That they start on the front row is a big pointer, six of the last seven winners came from the front row here, and five from pole position. Advantage George Russell.
Nervy Russell?
Russell is going for his first Grand Prix win of course, and no sprint races don’t count. He might be a bit nervous, and he might need a bit of help from the team. But do the team interfere or let nature take its course? If it’s the latter, it could get messy.
Russell is not the cleanest driver in wheel-to-wheel racing. Not in a dirty way, just clumsy, and we have seen teammates come together here, both in the past, and this weekend. Mercedes say they will let them race, but the drivers suggested that their strategies could be split and who gets to choose the best one?
Understeer
The Red Bull has been suffering from understeer all weekend and that has, and will continue to, hamper Verstappen, but not Perez who copes well with an understeering car. Red Bull would usually fix these set up problems on Friday night, but the set ups in a sprint weekend race are fixed at the qualifying stage on Friday and that is it for the weekend.
Verstappen was sliding in the slow and medium speed corners, degrading the tyres and that is going to be a problem in the race, which may allow Perez to get the better of Verstappen. It also reduces Verstappen’s chances in the race and makes things look easier for Mercedes if the main man is handicapped.
2022 Brazil GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Perez to beat Verstappen @ 3.95 with Unibet
Perez might be able to close the gap, especially if tyre management becomes an issue and it is going to be hotter today, but you’d still really want to be starting on the front row at Interlagos unless you were in a significantly faster car. That said, the tow on the home straight is powerful and the two DRS zones do give the chasers a chance to pass, but then it’s about not being repassed.
I will go with Russell to get the job done. He starts from the right place for this track and he has been faster than Hamilton in most sessions this weekend. Verstappen has all but conceded defeat and Perez says he is worried by the Mercedes pace. Ferrari have made a pig’s ear of things so far and starting 5th and 7th usually doesn’t get you anywhere here.
2022 Brazil GP Raceday Tip: 1 point George Russell to win @ 3.75 with Hills, Unibet, BET365, Boylesports
Outside of the big three, Lando Norris leads the best of the rest race. He isn’t well and has looked very pale and has been suffering with a tummy bug. That is not ideal and despite taking part in all the sessions so far, his fitness may be tested over a race distance.
He is helped by the fact that his main rivals in terms of pace, Alpine, start 17th and 18th after the pair clashed twice on the opening lap of the sprint race. That meant a new front wing for Alonso, while Ocon struggled on with a damaged car and just went backwards. His car then caught fire in the pit lane.
Alpines Could Make Places
On an overtaking track and with their good straight-line speed, the Alpines should make up places, but they are a long way back from Norris. Norris should win the best of the race market, so long as illness doesn’t hamper him too much.
We have an ante post bet on Magnussen to finish in the points and he has done a good job so far, starting 8th. The Haas has looked handy on the track and Schumacher backed that up with a 20th to 12th in the sprint race. Hopefully he can do enough to squeak a point.
The weather forecast is for cloudy but dry weather with any rain arriving after the race. That should help the DNF rate to be low as it tends to be here, when it is dry. There have been one or two not classifieds here in five of the seven races the turbo Hybrid era and as a stat bet, odds of 2.40 look OK for over 17 classified finishers.
