Tuesday Night Grand Slam of Darts Tips – JP
Tuesday Night Grand Slam of Darts Preview
Our struggles continued on Monday but surely a change of luck is imminent. Check out James Punt’s Tuesday night Grand Slam of Darts preview below.
Favs Dominant
The final night of the group matches, which it must be said have largely been a money pit. I must remember this for next year. It has been a good tournament for favourite backers and by and large, most of the matches have been won by the favourites, but not by the margins that they should have.
Danny Noppert, for example, won all three matches, but he needed deciding legs in two of them, and against the weaker players in his group. He did win our group bet but that didn’t cover the losses on the handicap bets against Perez and Suljovic.
Jermaine Wattimena vs. Leonard Gates
It had to happen. I finally had to back Wattimena to win a match and of course, he reverted to type and got beaten 0-5 by Jonny Clayton who only averaged 89. Wattimena missed all five of his doubles and that crushing defeat may have knocked the wind from his sails. He has won eight of his last ten matches, but he has now got to the must win part of the tournament.
Despite that defeat, he may have done enough to qualify if Clayton beats Heta. Sadly for Wattimena, the Heta match is played after his, so he won’t know what he has to do. Getting a win is the simplest thing to do for him, but that puts pressure on him, and he is not one for pressure.
Gates Out Of Form
He is helped by facing the weakest player in the group, Leonard Gates. The American has won just 4 legs, all of them against Damon Heta, another favourite not covering the handicap. Gates just about played to his seasonal average against Heta (89), but he is not in good form, losing seven of his last ten matches and he looks out of his depth at this level. He needs to find his best form, and then hope that Wattimena plays like he did against Clayton.
Wattimena is the 1.44 favourite with Gates 3.20. Wattimena should be another winning favourite but I’m not backing him again, certainly not as a short priced favourite. Gates hasn’t shown enough to think he can pull off a surprise. He might cover a +2.5 leg handicap, but he is just 1.62 to do so. This is a match which is best avoided. No bet.
Tuesday night Grand Slam of Darts tip: No Bet
Damon Heta vs. Jonny Clayton
This is a must win match for Heta, otherwise it will be another major tournament with an early exit. He won three matches to reach the quarter final of the UK Open in March, won the World Cup in June but since then his TV record is played ten, lost eight. His two wins came against Gordon Mathers and Leonard Gates. That’s not good, especially for a player with the third highest 12 month average in the game.
Jonny Clayton is the player Heta should be. He has made the most of his talents, maybe not so much this year, but he can handle the big matches, he can play on TV, and he has won a shed load of money doing so. He doesn’t freeze or lose his form just at the wrong time. He just plays darts and performs consistently on the whole.
Below Par Ferret
It must be said that he has been below par so far, despite winning both his matches 5-0. Averages of 92.7 and 89.4 are very un-Ferret like, but he hasn’t dropped a leg. That’s getting the most out your game, even when not playing great.
We have a small e/w bet on Heta to win the tournament, but I have written it off already. Heta is turning into the Aussie Chisnall. Brilliant player, a great talent, will be around for ages, will win loads of money, but will be a major winner? I have my doubts.
Their H2H record is 5-3 to Heta and in 2022 it is 4-0 to Heta. That may be a reflection of Clayton’s drop in form in 2022 but it still wouldn’t make me think that Clayton is not the favourite going into this, and the bookmakers agree. Clayton is the 1.75 favourite, Heta 2.10.
Their H2H record says Heta is the call, but Clayton is coming into this on the back of two 5-0 wins and he hasn’t got out of first gear yet. Heta’s recent TV form is a worry, and he is the one under the cosh again.
Tuesday night Grand Slam of Darts tip: 1 point Jonny Clayton to win @ 1.75 with Ladbrokes
Luke Woodhouse vs. Nathan Rafferty
Woodhouse is still very much in the hunt for a place in the knockout stage, thanks to his 5-4 win over Ross Smith in the first match. He was easily beaten by MVG in his second match, and he needs a win here. That may be enough to get him through, so long as Smith gets beaten by MVG.
Rafferty hasn’t played his best so far, averaging in the high 80s and losing both matches 2-5. Losing to MVG and Ross Smith was to be expected but a player like Woodhouse is more within his range, especially as Woodhouse needs to win.
Consistency Concerns
Woodhouse has won seven of his last ten matches and is in good form, but he is not a hugely consistent player. Rafferty has lost six of his last ten and half have seen sub 90 averages and he will need to find some better form if he is to get something out of this match. He still has a mathematical chance of qualifying but he will need a comprehensive win and Smith to get a tonking.
Woodhouse is the 1.80 favourite and Rafferty the 2.20 outsider. It is a match that makes little appeal betting wise, but there is one market of interest. Both have been knocking in a healthy amount of 180s. 13 between the two and a combined rate of 0.88 per leg. The bookies expect the match to be around 7-8 legs long and the chances for over 3.5 look good.
Tuesday night Grand Slam of Darts tip: 1 point over 3.5 180’s at 2.10 with SpreadEx, Boylesports
Michael van Gerwen vs. Ross Smith
It will be interesting to see how Smith gets on against MVG now he is a major champion. Their H2H record is 6-1 to MVG but they have not met since 2020. They have met twice on TV, Smith beat MVG 6-5 in the 2019 European Championships but lost 2-5 in Grand Slam group match in the same year.
MVG is a better player in virtually every measured metric, but Smith is in good form, and his good form is a lot better than his seasonal form. He has hit a patch of consistent heavy scoring and is up to 9th in the 180s per leg table (MVG 21st). If he is banging in the 180s he is hard to beat.
Van Gerwen has won eight of his last ten and has been faultless in his first two group matches, dropping just three legs. He has won his last 12 Grand Slam group matches.
Van Gerwen is the 1.40 favourite and Smith 3.00. Everything points to an MVG win but Smith will be up for the challenge and he is in good form as well. The handicap market looks a bit tight and the outright odds about right but hopefully Smith gives a good account of himself and we get a close match.
Tuesday night Grand Slam of Darts tip: 1 point over 7.5 legs @ 1.91 with Hills, Boylesports
Alan Soutar vs. Fallon Sherrock
Soutar’s performance against Peter Wright just about sums our luck up so far. I think it was six missed match darts before Wright fell over the line to win 5-4. It was effectively the group win in his hands, six times, and he couldn’t hit one of them. He now has to beat Sherrock heavily and hope that Wright beats Aspinall to qualify, and there is no guarantee of that happening.
Soutar has won seven of his last ten and is in good form, hitting some big averages and feeling confident.
Faltering Fallon
Sherrock has lost eight of her last ten matches playing against the men, and her grip on the Women’s game has weakened. She has been complaining that everyone hates her and clearly can’t cope with the choppy seas she is in. The men playing against her have realised that they can’t pussy foot around or she can beat them, so they are being more ruthless and less chivalrous.
She made the quarter finals here last year, but she was playing a lot better, all five matches saw 90+ averages, but this time, an 83 and 88. Her doubling has been really poor, hitting just two from sixteen.
There is no H2H form to go on, but this would seem to be a case of by how much Soutar wins by. Sherrock has lost both matches 1-5 and something similar seems likely if she continues to flounder on the doubles.
Tuesday night Grand Slam of Darts tip: 1 point Alan Soutar to win -2.5 legs @ 2.00 with Betvictor
Tuesday night Grand Slam of Darts tip: 0.5 point Soutar to win 5-1 @ 5.40 with Unibet
Peter Wright vs. Nathan Aspinall
We have to assume that only a win will do for Aspinall here. Soutar is likely to be on four points and have a healthy leg difference after his match with Sherrock. The same goes for Wright, if he loses, he could be out on leg difference.
Their H2H record is 7-5 to Aspinall and on TV, 4-2 to Aspinall. Wright has averaged 87.5 and 89.6 in his opening two matches which is way short of his usual standard. The reason is that his wife has had to undergo more surgery and he had considered pulling out before his last match. He is not 100% focused on his darts.
Aspinall is not in good form, losing six of his last ten. He is not playing badly, but he is not at his best.
This would seem to be about Wright and his state of mind. If he is half thinking he’d be better off at home, then he is likely to be flat and beatable. If things are going better, he might be ready to go again. It is not a good betting proposition. No bet.
Tuesday night Grand Slam of Darts tip: No Bet
Ryan Searle vs. Scott Williams
Searle played poorly against Josh Rock and lost and played great against Humphries and got stuffed. That sums his recent form up, five defeats from ten and his doubling has been a problem for him. In those ten matches he has hit a checkout rate of 33% or less in six, and in his first two group matches 25% and 24%. That makes it hard to win.
Williams took josh Rock to a deciding leg, but he has now lost six of his last ten matches. He is an inconsistent player and that makes this a hard match to call. Williams definitely has a chance if Searle continues to struggle on the outer ring
The money has been going down on Williams and certainly Searle makes no appeal at 1.47. Williams is backable at 2.90, but it is a bet as much about Searle’s troubles with doubles as Williams potential.
Tuesday night Grand Slam of Darts tip: 1 point Scott Williams to win @ 2.90 with Ladbrokes, Betfred, Hills
Luke Humphries vs. Josh Rock
Rock will know what he needs to do when he steps on stage. Humphries is already through, but he will want to make sure he qualifies in first place and avoid a likely meeting MVG in the next round.
With a win rate of 74% in 2022, Humphries is hard to oppose, but he is up against a great talent here. We have not seen the best from Rock, not by a long way, but his experience on TV is minimal, so perhaps we shouldn’t expect a big ton plus average every time he steps up to the oche. He might need to, however, as Humphries has hit six ton plus averages in those last ten and hit a 107 average when beating Searle 5-1.
Humphries has won seven of his last ten matches and one of those defeats was against Josh Rock. Humphries averaged 102.96 in that match and lost 5-8 in a Players Championship final. Rock averaged 108 in that match.
Fond Memories
Rock will have good memories of playing Humphries as he won his first senior title against him just a few weeks ago. He has also won seven of his last ten matches, but he has only ever played five TV matches and lost three.
I suspect that experience could decide the winner here. Both players are in good form, and both are capable of very big scores. It could be a classic. Humphries has the advantage of experience of playing in big TV matches and the luxury of having already qualified for the knockout stage.
Humphries is the 1.85 favourite and Rock 2.02. The market finds them hard to split and hopefully it will live up to its potential and we get a humdinger that goes to a decider, or close to it.
