Newbury and Newcastle Saturday Tips – DS
Newbury and Newcastle Saturday Preview
What a dinger of a horse Sebastopol is. I was worried when Beauport pulled out and the field was reduced but the race panned out exactly as I hoped. There was a Rule 4 on the 25/1 but the place stake going onto the win was nice compensation. Skandiburg was given a shocker and could only manage 5th. Check out Dave’s Newbury and Newcastle Saturday preview below.
1.20 Newbury – Handicap Chase (Class 2)
With a run under his belt and off a mark of 135, perhaps Senior Citizen can go well here for Alan King and Adrian Heskin. This horse has run below par on his last three outings, all on ground with soft in the description. However, the last time he had genuine good ground at Market Rasen (21f gd), he landed a valuable pot off 134 by 2L. He has won once on soft (off 125) but his three other wins all came on genuinely good ground.
His last two victories came off 134 so he is weighted to go close if on a going day. Another cause for optimism is his course form. He has run twice at Newbury (once on unsuitably soft ground) and he has finished 3rd (on soft off 144) and 4th, beat 3.5L, on good off 134. That second effort came over 20f and the way he finished off his race suggested that today’s trip around here would be ideal.
Alan King’s horses continue in decent form. He has had five winners in the last fortnight as well as a string of places. Adrian Heskin is 19/136 when riding for him with a further 68 top 4 finishes. Once they don’t put too much water down tonight, Senior Citizen can hopefully hit the frame at odds of 20/1.
Newbury and Newcastle Saturday Tips: Senior Citizen e/w @ 16/1 (4 places) NB
1.35 Newcastle – Novices’ Handicap Chase (Class 3)
A trappy handicap with five runners, all single figure odds. Not a race I’ll be getting involved in. No bet.
Newbury and Newcastle Saturday Tips: No Bet
1.55 Newbury – Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)
Gary Moore’s horses are starting to hit top gear in the last few days. He’s fired in nine winners in the last fortnight and he runs two here. The oddsmakers seem to think Porticello is his best chance. Jockey bookings suggest he is the first string but good ground has to rate as a huge worry. The son of Sholokhov has shown his best form by far on testing ground and this will be very different. On the other hand, Imphal should love the conditions.
Like his stablemate, he is having his first run of the campaign. He was last sighted at Haydock in April (24f gd) where he ran a massive race in a valuable handicap off 116. He was only 1.25L behind An Tailliur off a mark of 116 and the winner is now rated 10lbs higher. Moore’s charge only got 1lb for that run so with Niall Houlihan’s 3lbs claim, he is effectively 2lbs lower today.
Trip A Worry
On the downside, he has never won over this short over hurdles but in May 21 he did manage a decent 2nd over this distance at Chepstow. He has run well enough when fresh in the past and though he was well beaten on his last start after a long break, the ground was soft. His form figures over hurdles on good ground going left handed read 72412 and Niall Houlihan is 31/201 with 81 top 4s when riding for Moore. He might need the run but hopefully he can stay on late and hopefully nick place money at odds of 50/1.
Newbury and Newcastle Saturday Tips: Imphal e/w @ 40/1 (4 places)
2.10 Newcastle – Fighting Fifth Hurdle (Grade 1)
Will Constitution Hill turn up? It’ll be amusing if Henderson pulls him out again given the furore after Ascot. He’s well within his rights to withdraw any horse he wants if he doesn’t feel the ground is safe. It’s unfortunate when such a high profile animal is involved but at the end of the day, he’s the trainer and whatever he says goes. If he does run here, he’ll go off at prohibitive odds. Clearly, his Novice hurdle form is top drawer but I think comparisons with the likes of Istabraq and Buveur D’Air are a shade premature. Does nobody remember the last second coming, Samcro?
Epatante dead heated with Not So Sleepy in this last year and they are both back for another go. The McManus mare also won this in 2020 so connections would love to see her get the hat trick. However she too lacks a recent run and Not So Sleepy is unreliable so how Tommy’s Oscar is chalked up at 28/1 is beyond me.
Regular readers need no introduction to this fella. He has had two novice chase runs already this season, including a solid 2nd in a G2 at Cheltenham behind Banbridge. The Hamilton’s stable star is as slick a hurdler as they come and you can put a line through his last start over timber in the Champion Hurdle. In my opinion he’s more than capable of beating Epatante and Not So Sleepy and he has a race fitness edge on the former. 28/1 is an absolute insult and at those odds, he has to be worth backing e/w.
Newbury and Newcastle Saturday Tips: Tommy’s Oscar e/w @ 28/1
2.30 Newbury – Intermediate Handicap Hurdle (Premier)
Just the eight runners in this valuable Premier Handicap. Again, Gary Moore runs two and again, the longer priced of his entries is interesting. On his last return from a break he got to within 3L of Knight Salute in a G2 at Cheltenham. Since then he finished a good 2nd in a class 2 conditions race back at the same track before getting off the mark at Fontwell in a weak maiden.
With Niall Houlihan’s claim he is in off effectively 120 here. Knight Salute, 3L ahead of him at Cheltenham is now rated 144. The fact he hasn’t been seen since that Fontwell Boxing Day win is a worry but he’ll like this ground and on that Knight Salute form, a mark of 123 looks exploitable.
Moore also runs Teddy Blue, the mount of son Jamie, and he too got to within almost 3L of Knight Salute at Kempton. However, he was in receipt of 5lbs that day and Yorksea was off levels so theoretically, Yorksea’s effort was better. He’ll be getting 8lbs from his stablemate today yet he is 5x the price of Teddy Blue. Yorksea might need the run, so this isn’t a lump job but if he is even 80% fit, I think he has enough ability to challenge for a place at least at odds of 20/1.
Newbury and Newcastle Saturday Tips: Yorksea e/w @ 20/1
3.05 Newbury – Coral Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Premier)
I’m all over Annsam for this Premier Handicap Chase. We backed this horse last year a couple of times, when he won at Ascot and when he was placed at Kempton. The son of Black Sam Bellamy is an extremely talented individual when on his game. He is a very strong traveller, he is a solid jumper and he should come on bundles for his comeback run at Ascot.
I’ve no doubt that this horse is capable of winning a big handicap off his current rating. The 26f trip should not pose any problems, once Adam Wedge can get him to settle. He can be a bit headstrong at times but hopefully that Ascot outing has knocked the edge off him. At just 7yo he is still a young horse and Evan Williams is never one to rush his best chasers.
He has run in two handicap hurdles at this track, finishing 3rd in one and winning the other. We know he handles the track and I’d imagine Williams has had this race in mind for him for a while. He’s only 3lbs higher than when hacking up at Ascot and in my opinion, this horse is capable of running to 150+ if he is at his best. Hopefully he puts it all together tomorrow and if he does, he’ll run a massive race at odds of 16/1.
Newbury and Newcastle Saturday Tips: Annsam e/w @ 16/1 NAP (5 places)
3.25 Newcastle – Rehearsal Handicap Chase (Premier)
A field of nine have declared for this handicap chase and it is all about one horse. L’Homme Presse swerved his intended comeback at Ascot and now takes his chance in this handicap chase. Rated 164, it won’t be an easy task carrying 12 stone and conceding lots of weight to his rivals but he is a cut above the rest of these. Venetia Williams got a welcome winner last weekend and this could well be one for favourite backers.
I’d imagine all roads lead back to the Grand National for Dingo Dollar and connections won’t want him finishing too close to the fav as he is on a mark of 150 now. Aye Right ran a blinder off top weight on his return at Kelso and he won this last year. There was no L’Homme Presse to deal with though and he is also 6lbs higher today.
Long Absence
Happygolucky was in superb fettle when last seen, but that was almost two years ago. He could be on a fair mark but surely he’ll need the run after such a long absence. Into Overdrive gets almost two stone from the fav and Mark Walford’s charge is a progressive horse. He’s shot up the handicap since winning off 112 last March and he is now rated 26lbs higher. It’ll be fascinating to see how he gets on now but he’s only a 4/1 shot so he’s not much use to us.
Head Examined
I probably need my head examined putting a horse up that’s been pulled up on four of his last five starts but that is what I’m going to do. Windsor Avenue had excuses for those three runs and he was pulled up the run before his last win at Doncaster (24f gd) back in January. After that win off 144 he was pulled up on unsuitable ground at Kelso, he then didn’t take to the National fences at Aintree and he had a huge burden of 12 stone on his return to action at Aintree.
The 10yo was beat less than a length on his sole run at Newcastle over hurdles and he should enjoy today’s ground. His mark has fallen to 144, the same rating off which he won so easily at Doncaster. Brian Ellison’s horses are hitting form and I just think that with so many of his rivals having questions to answer, it is worth having a small bet on Windsor Avenue in the hope he is in the mood. If he is, he can nick some place money at odds of 33/1.
Newbury and Newcastle Saturday Tips: Windsor Avenue e/w @ 33/1
3.40 Newbury – Handicap Chase (Class 2)
A poor race to finish the day and with Navan coming up on Sunday, there’ll be much better fare to get stuck into on Sunday. I’d love to see Bun Doran win but at 15/2, he doesn’t appeal as a betting proposition. Keep that powder dry, no bet.
