2022 Navan Troytown Chase Day Preview and Tips – DS
2022 Navan Troytown Chase Day Preview
Saturday was a let-down. Only Windsor Avenue ran with any credit but he missed a place in 4th. Senior Citizen’s jumping wasn’t up to scratch and I don’t think Tommy’s Oscar looked 100%. Yorksea was out for a Saturday stroll and both Busselton and the loose horse did Annsam no favours. I still firmly believe he has a big pot in him. We are back in Ireland on Sunday, check out Dave Stevos’ 2022 Navan Troytown Chase Day preview below.
12.20 – 3yo Maiden Hurdle (3yo Only)
These big field Irish maidens usually all unfold the same way. The triers set off in front and there is normally a big gap back to those looking for handicap marks. It is usually the horses from the major yards at the forefront and the unraced, JP owned Tekao is odds on to make a winning debut over timber. He was a soft ground flat winner in France (solid form) and the son of Doctor Dino is a half brother to a G2 flat winner.
My worry for him would be the testing ground. Soft in France is more like yielding in Ireland and Doctor Dino’s progeny have a far superior strike rate on good (52% winners to runners) than on soft (33%) or heavy (29%). Comfort Zone is JP’s other unraced one and he’s trained by Joseph. He has flat form on proper soft ground and he is rated 85 in that sphere (12lbs higher than New Year Honours). If I were having a bet, it would probably be on him at 13/2 but to be honest, this race is best watched.
2022 Navan Troytown Chase Day Tips: No Bet
12.50 – Maiden Hurdle (4yo+)
Another race where the market leaders will likely come to the fore. Grangeclare West brings a 2/2 record into the race having won a point and a Punchestown bumper. The horse he beat easily in that bumper is now rated 144 over timber so the £430k purchase should be winning this on that form. £370k point winner Kudasheva is a half-sister to the mighty Don Cossack. By Pour Moi, if she has anywhere near as much ability as her brother, he’ll be some horse.
Firm Footings was a bargain £220k and he is proven on bad ground. He won a bumper last month so he’s fit and he’s another one that should be trying. My Trump Card was a £230k buy and he too is trained by Gordon Elliott. He’s a full brother to Airlie Beach, a G1 placed Listed winner who liked half decent ground. The top 4 in the betting, all geldings bar Kudasheva, cost a cool £1.25 million between them. Insane money.
Kilbree Warrior looks sure to give his running again for Oliver McKiernan. He went off like a scalded cat here last time but he managed to keep on bravely for 2nd. He’s only rated 104 but the horse that finished 3rd behind him is a nice prospect and I’d have given him a rating of maybe 117/118 for that run. That’s unlikely to be enough to place here though and the ground is much softer too. This is another no bet race for me, the big money horses will likely dominate.
2022 Navan Troytown Chase Day Tips: No Bet
1.20 – Monksfield Novice Hurdle (Grade 3)
American Mike, a maiden hurdle winner last time, is odds on for this G3. A Listed winner in bumpers, he chased home Facile Vega in the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham. Soft/heavy ground is ideal and he looks a nice prospect. However, this 2f drop in trip might be a slight worry. He didn’t jump that great over 22f last time and they’ll likely go quicker in this better race and that could be an issue if he hasn’t improved in that department.
Three Card Brag won his maiden at Galway last month on heavy ground over 16f. He came up short in a G3 last time on yielding but this ground will suit better. The step up in trip should suit him too on pedigree, my only concern is whether three runs in just four weeks might be too big an ask. The ground is a huge worry for Dawn Rising, a good ground winner last time. He finished well beaten on his sole start on slow ground.
Unbeaten
Affordable Fury is trained by Noel Meade and he has yet to taste defeat. A P2P winner last March, he landed a bumper (16f sft) and then a maiden hurdle Galway (22f sft) on his first two rules starts. He clearly has pace as well as stamina and I don’t think the drop back in distance today will inconvenience him too much. The horse he beat into 2nd at Galway, Monbeg Park, franked that form at Punchestown. He should go well.
The only previous G3 winner in this field is Kilbarry Chloe. The bookies have completely dismissed her chances, presumably because of her low key return at Limerick. However, she should come on bundles for that outing. The Limerick G3 she won last season wasn’t the strongest of heats but even so, it’s arguably better hurdling form than what most of her opponents have achieved.
She’s guaranteed to go on the ground too so in the hope that all five run, I’m backing her e/w for small stakes. A reproduction of that Limerick form might be enough for 2nd.
2022 Navan Troytown Chase Day Tips: Kilbarry Chloe e/w @ 66/1
1.50 – Handicap Hurdle (80-130)
One that looks potentially well handicapped at a price here is Mercury Lane. Trained by Paul Nolan, this horse showed plenty of ability over hurdles two seasons ago. He got to within a length of the well fancied Troytown contender Velvet Elvis in a maiden at Cork (24f sft/hvy). Then, he was only beat 2L by the 127 rated Dunboyne at Thurles (23f hvy) and he signed off for the season with a wide margin win in a weak maiden at Limerick (24f hvy).
Last season he went chasing but he just never took to the game. His best run came here off 116 when he was 5th, beat 17L by Velvet Elvis. Good ground was no use to him on his return to hurdling at Punchestown in April. However, he shaped with definite promise at Galway last time (22f sft/hvy) when the run was most likely needed.
His handicap mark is now down to 118, a rating he is surely capable of going well off. The excellent Jordan Gainford keeps the faith with the son of Stowaway and he should strip a lot fitter with that Galway run under his belt. With trip and ground both to suit, Mercury Lane is the e/w selection.
2022 Navan Troytown Chase Day Tips: Mercury Lane e/w @ 50/1 (6 places) NAP
2.20 – Bar One Troytown Handicap Chase (Grade B)
We have nicked a couple of nice places in the Troytown over the years. Mr Diablo at 50s finished 2nd and last year, we had Peaches and Cream at the same odds in 4th. I’ve already had an ante-post bet on Velvet Elvis for this race. However, he has been very well backed now and the value is gone from his price. My main angle when backing him was his impressive win in a C&D handicap chase on soft here last year. That came off 133 and he is now 10lbs higher but I think his Irish National run showed he is capable of being more than competitive off his current rating.
Instead, I am going to recommend a bet on local trainer Tom Gibney’s other runner, Regina Dracones. In that race that Velvet Elvis won she finished a fine 2nd, finishing just 4L behind her stablemate off a mark of 124 with Jack Foley taking off 5lbs. Gibney has enlisted another 5lbs claimer today so off 127, she is 3lbs higher.
However, she’ll be getting 21lbs from Velvet Elvis today, 5lbs more than she got when they last met. According to her trainer she is more than fit enough to do herself justice and she has run well back from a break in the past. If you are planning on backing Velvet Elvis, I wouldn’t put you off but he’s too short for the blog. Regina Dracones isn’t though, so she is the e/w selection at 33/1.
