2022 Fairyhouse Winter Festival Tips – DS
2022 Fairyhouse Winter Festival Preview
Saturday was a good day. Percussion ran a massive race in the Becher and rewarded our e/w support. It got even better with our e/w NB Romeo Brown. He defied a drift to 50s to win in gutsy style. Gwencily Berbas travelled well but emptied quickly. Empire Steel was only out for a Saturday stroll and Dunvegan wasn’t ridden as I hoped. The top quality action just keeps on coming, get Dave Stevos’ 2022 Fairyhouse Winter Festival tips below.
12.25 – Bar One Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 3)
I looked at the opening handicap but couldn’t see any angles at big odds. The ground is yielding at Fairyhouse but with overnight rain and showers tomorrow, it’ll probably turn soft. It won’t be too testing though so most horses should be fine on it.
Surprisingly, it has been slim pickings for Willie Mullins in this race. He hasn’t won it since 2015 but he has the 2/1 fav here in Zarak The Brave. A 200k purchase from France, I was at Fairyhouse for his debut. He stood out a mile in the parade ring and he won in the style of a talented horse. Calico was 18L behind him in 4th and she ran a huge race in a Listed heat at Aintree today so the form is strong.
French Winner
Mullins has another three runners so surely, he’ll end his drought in this contest this afternoon. French winner Lossiemouth carries the Ricci colours and on jockey bookings, she is the second string. She absolutely hosed up in a Fillies’ hurdle at Auteuil and she is out of a half-sister to Lord Glitters so she is bred to be a good horse. Her odds of 3/1 suggest a decent run is expected.
Risk Belle is the mount of Rachael Blackmore and she has a similar profile. She is also a French winner, landing two 3yo hurdles at Nantes and Auteuil. She beat a horse called South Lodge by 3.5L on her second run. Lossiemouth beat the same horse by 11L but she was off levels and Risk Belle was conceding 2lbs so that narrows the gap slightly.
JP Triple Handed
Risk Belle is owned by JP and he also runs impressive Navan winner Comfort Zone. I flagged him up as one to watch on his hurdling debut and he won easily. A classy flat operator, he looks to be a useful hurdling recruit and he should have learned plenty from that outing. Soft/yielding ground is fine and he has obvious claims. Sundial also represents JP but he needs to take a big step forward from Punchestown and he might need much softer ground.
I was tempted to put up Risk Belle at 12s here but her price collapsed as I was writing the preview. If it was good ground I’d give Brown Eagle an outside squeak of a place on his run behind War Correspondent. Common Practice would be tempting if the heavens opened properly and Aghaboy would prefer it drier. The market leaders are most likely to dominate here so we’ll keep the powder dry. No Bet.
2022 Fairyhouse Winter Festival Tip: No Bet
12.55 – Bar One Porterstown Handicap Chase (Grade b)
Our old pal Lord Lariat is favourite for this valuable handicap chase. He made a grand return to action at Punchestown and this is his track. His record at Fairyhouse in handicaps is mustard but will he be going all out to win this? Surely his main aim this year is a tilt at Aintree and he’d almost be guaranteed to get in off his current rating of 146, especially with the extra weight he’d get from the UK handicapper. If he was mine, I’d be minding his mark so the percentage call is to take him on today.
We were on Regina Dracones in the Troytown but she fell early on. Last season she did the same first time up and then she came out and won at Clonmel (16f yld/sft). She also won here over 25f off 116 before chasing home her stablemate Velvet Elvis at Navan off 124. She is now racing off 127 and Darragh O’Keefe takes over from a 5lbs claimer in the saddle.
This locally trained mare will like the ground and I think she’ll stay this trip. She has tried 31f before but on good ground at Punchestown and she was still bang there when a mistake three out knocked the stuffing out of her. She is a prominent racer, which I like at Fairyhouse, and the 7yo could have more to come at marathon distances. At odds of 14/1, Regina Dracones is the e/w selection.
2022 Fairyhouse Winter Festival Tip: Regina Dracones e/w @ 14/1 (4 places)
1.25 – Royal Bond Novice Hurdle (Grade 1)
Champ Kiely is 3/3 under rules and he is 11/10 for this fascinating G1 Hurdle. A son of Ocovango, he has won on yielding, good and good to yielding so he probably won’t want too much rain. Marine National is his main market rival. I was at Punchestown to see him win and he is a cracking looking horse. By French Navy, he did a lot wrong on his hurdling debut (16f gd) but he still won in commanding fashion. However, he is unraced on softer than good to yielding and that has to be a worry.
Irish Point is already a G1 winner, in a 12f heavy ground bumper in France. He jumped a bit to the right on his Irish debut at Cork but that didn’t stop him from winning easily. How strong is that form? It remains to be seen but the runner up in his G1 win has since won four in a row, including a G3 and a G1 hurdle. Surely Gordon Elliott’s son of Joshua Tree is well overpriced at odds of 9/1 on that evidence.
Solid Form
Path D’oroux’s form looks solid too. He has won both his starts under rules and he beat a subsequent winner handily last time at Galway. Keith Donoghue is having a season to remember and it would be no surprise if this son of Coastal Path made it into the shake-up. Willie Mullins also runs Ashroe Diamond, a G2 bumper winner last season, and Hercule De Seuil, a G3 winner last time out.
Ashroe Diamond landed a Naas maiden hurdle on her return to action. However, the horse she beat by 1.25L was beat 13L in a maiden here on Saturday. Hercule De Seuil is more interesting. He hosed up in a Tipp maiden on his first run of 2022 and he followed up in a 16f G3 at Naas.
Willing Attitude
He wears a hood and a tongue tie so he isn’t straightforward but he has a very willing attitude. In that Navan G3 he seemed to lose concentration approaching the last but once the runner up got to his quarters, he just kept on pulling out more and he probably won easier than the margin suggests.
To be honest, I’m a big Marine Nationale fan and I wouldn’t mind if he won but at the prices, Hercule De Seuil has to be the e/w bet. Hopefully it turns out to be as good a race as it looks on paper.
2022 Fairyhouse Winter Festival Tip: Hercule De Seuil e/w @ 18/1 (4 places)
1.55 – Drinmore Novice Chase (Grade 1)
Another barnstormer of a race. Obviously, it would be preferable if almost half the field wasn’t trained by Willie Mullins but that’s par for the course these days. He doesn’t have the favourite this time though. The market leader is Banbridge and he made mincemeat of his rivals in a Cheltenham G2 last time over 16f (gd). The step up to 20f today isn’t a worry, but the easier ground is. His form on a sounder surface is streets ahead of what he has produced on soft so he might be worth taking on.
Gordon Elliot has the next two in the betting and they’ll both like the ground. Jack Kennedy rides Mighty Potter, an easyish winner at Down Royal on his first chase start. Davy Russell is on board Three Stripe Life, also a facile winner at Naas on his chasing debut. Three Stripe Life came out on top when they met at Leopardstown but Mighty Potter was arguably unlucky that day. However, Russell’s mount jumped better than his stablemate on their last outings and that could make the difference today.
Experience
The shortest of the Mullins runners is Gaillard Du Mesnil. He is a maiden over fences but he has run some huge races in defeat in hot handicap and G1 company. My worry would be the trip but with Banbridge, Authorized Art, Three Stripe Life and Mighty Potter all likely to go forward, they might make it enough of a stamina test for the Irish National 3rd.
The Devilscoachman won his sole chase start at Galway for Noel Meade. Simon Torrens rides with Mark Walsh out injured. He is a proper mudlover and the more rain that falls tonight, the better his chance will be. Adamantly Chosen impressed me at Punchestown but he is best on genuine good ground.
Hewick Form
El Barra is similar to Gaillard Du Mesnil in that he has had lots of previous chasing experience. He was only 3L behind Gold Cup hopeful Hewick at Galway and he goes on all sorts of ground. He’s never finished out of the first three when completing over fences and as we have seen in the last couple of weeks, it can often pay to side with experience over potential in these Graded Novice chases.
Sebastopol and Darrens Hope have proved that theory recently so I’m going to stick to the plan. Gaillard Du Mesnil is short enough so instead, I’ll take a chance on El Barra. Jack Foley has ridden him twice before and won on both occasions. His last two wins have come at this trip but he stays further, which should be an asset in what is likely to be a strongly run race. He has form figures of 12 at Fairyhouse, hopefully he can add another 1,2 or 3 to that sequence today. At odds of 20/1, El Barra is the e/w selection.
2022 Fairyhouse Winter Festival Tip: El Barra e/w @ 16/1 NB (4 places)
2.30 – Hatton’s Grace Hurdle (Grade 1)
After Constitution Hill’s spectacular display, now it is time for Honeysuckle to lay down her marker for the season. Henry De Bromhead’s magnificent mare is 1/2 to bring her record under rules to 17/17. Three of those wins came in this race and she should be gaining her fourth win if she runs to form.
The one I’ll take her on with today is Ashdale Bob. Jessica Harrington’s horses are finally hitting form and this lad ran a grand race on his return at Navan. This admirably consistent son of Shantou was a Grade 2 novice winner here back in April 2021. He has only won three races during his career but he has faced some very tough assignments.
On his final start of last season he ran a huge race in the Irish Stayers’ Hurdle at Punchestown, finishing 1.25L behind Klassical Dream. Over this trip, he might just be able to turn that form around. He won’t mind if there is a lot of rain and I don’t think he should be four times the price of Klassical Dream (who lacks a recent run). At odds of 20/1, Ashdale Bob is the each way selection.
2022 Fairyhouse Winter Festival Tip: Ashdale Bob e/w @ 20/1 NAP
3.05 – Bar One Handicap Hurdle (Grade A)
Local trainer Shane Crawley is a trainer well able to line up one for a big pot and Cotteemcavennigoal could go well for him here. By Kalanisi, this Navan maiden winner has had just the three runs in handicap hurdles. Sent off at 8/1 on his first handicap start at Galway, he was narrowly beaten by Easca Peasca off a mark of 115. He then ran a respectable race when 6th of 18 at Leopardstown at Xmas and that was the last we saw of him until Navan three weeks ago.
Crawley’s charge made a satisfactory return to action in that 16f handicap hurdle. He was bang there between the last two and he was just getting a bit tired when making a mistake at the final obstacle. The handicapper has left his mark alone so he remains just three pounds above the mark off which he was narrowly beaten three runs ago.
He had the 119 rated Brides Hill almost two lengths back in 3rd that day and she landed a nice pot at Leopardstown two runs later off 121 and she ended up rated 137 over timber. My main worry with this horse would be if it turned bottomless but yielding/soft should be fine. Once the heavy rain stays away, hopefully Cotteemcavennigoal can reward e/w support at odds of 28/1.
