Sunday Evening PDC World Championship Tips – JP
Sunday Afternoon PDC World Championship Preview
James Punt has already penned outright winner and side market previews. He had just one winner this afternoon, but at least it was a 2.5 point selection. His Sunday Afternoon PDC World Championship tips are below.
*Please note that today’s session times have been moved to accommodate the World Cup Final. This session will start at 20.15 pm local UK time.
Mike de Decker vs. Jeff Smith
A more competitive affair than many of these first round matches. De Decker has played here for the last two years, going out at this stage two years ago to Japanese qualifier, Edward Foulkes and last year he beat Darius Labanauskas 3-1 before losing 0-3 to Dave Chisnall. His record in TV majors is very poor, winning just four from fifteen played.
His recent form, however, is good, winning seven of his last ten, all with averages over 91 and half over 95. Solid and consistent. The question is, can he do it on TV? He is 27 years old now and might finally be maturing into the player he has threatened to be for a while. He has been hitting a very healthy number of 180s (ranked 6th for 180s per leg in the last 12 month) and that will improve his chances if he can take his recent form onto the biggest stage in the sport.
Commuting Issues
Jeff Smith has struggled to play on the pro tour while commuting from his home in Canada. It is probably too big a handicap to make work and it must be hard to see your modest prizemoney eaten up by big travel expenses. He has been doing it for years but has never made any great progress. This year his win rate has dropped to 47%, his lowest on record.
His recent form is decent, winning six of his last ten, but he is not scoring as well as De Decker. He hasn’t been hitting many 180s and if De Decker starts to fire, Smith could find himself in trouble. Smith has played in four previous World Championships here and won just the one match.
Their H2H record is 3-0 to Smith which will give him some confidence coming into the match, but he should be facing a much improved De Decker.
Sunday Afternoon PDC World Championship tips: 1 point Mike de Decker to win and have the most 180s @ 1.91 with Betfair
Scott Williams vs. Ryan Joyce
A bit of a clash of styles, both sartorially and sporting. Williams is a non-tour card holding qualifier who has won on the pro tour in 2022 and won four Challenge Tour titles. He has picked up quite a bit of stage experience on the Euro Tour and he played in the Grand Slam and Players Championships finals where he beat Alan Soutar and Dave Chisnall.
He has won five of his last ten matches, three of them on TV. His A game is very good, but he does lack consistency. This will be his first time at Ally Pally and even if he is a bit of a showman, he will be feeling it.
Journeyman Joyce
Ryan Joyce is a more restrained character, a journeyman pro who can hit the high notes on his day. He reached the quarter finals here in 2019 and has won three of his four first round matches here. Six of his ten matches here have gone to a deciding set, including three of his four first round matches.
He is a bit of a grinder, but he is strong on the doubles, ranked third for checkout % for the last 12 months. If he gets a chance, he is good at taking it. His recent form is good with seven wins from his last ten matches with eight averages of 92 or more, so showing decent consistency.
I expect that Joyce’s greater experience at this level will tell in the end, unless Williams can bring his A game, and let’s face it, we haven’t since many A games so far.
Sunday Afternoon PDC World Championship tips: 1 point Ryan Joyce to win @ 1.73 generally available
Sunday Afternoon PDC World Championship tips: 0.5 point Ryan Joyce to win 3-2 @ 5.00 with Betfred, Betfair
Matt Campbell vs. Danny Baggish
The big North American derby. Both players have been here before and shown a liking for it. Campbell is yet to win a match in his three previous visits, but he has never been whitewashed and he has played well enough and he will not be overawed by the big stage.
He has relocated to Europe to go full time and it paid off when he won the 2021 European Challenge tour and a two year tour card. He had his best run in a TV major at the recent Players Championships finals, reaching the third round where he took Danny Noppert to a deciding leg, losing 9-10.
Last Chance Saloon
Danny Baggish is drinking in the last stand saloon here. If he doesn’t win enough prizemoney to keep his tour card (he needs to reach the 4th round), he will not return to Q school. He has found it too difficult to up roots and relocate to the UK while his family are in the US. That is a big ask, but at least his decision is made and his mind is clear.
The Gambler has won here before. He has won both his first round matches and made the third round in the 2021 championship, beating Damon Heta and Adrian Lewis before losing 2-4 to Glen Durrant.
Both players have lost six of their last ten matches. Baggish is averaging 89.8 over the last 12 months, Campbell 91.3. They have met twice before, both this year and both on the North American CDC pro tour, and it is one win apiece.
Campbell Fav
Matt Campbell is the 1.53 favourite, Baggish 2.75. Campbell deserves to be favourite but his odds are on the short side. There is some value in Baggish’s odds but I do fancy Campbell to get his first Ally Pally win.
Both players have been hitting 180s at 0.19 per leg in the last 12 months and I’ll have a small play on a tie in the 180s market.
Sunday Afternoon PDC World Championship tips: 0.5 point most 180s a tie @ 4.75 with SpreadEx
Nathan Aspinall vs. Boris Krčmar
The Asp’s record here is a bit mixed. Back-to-back semi-finals in his first two visits, but back-to-back 3rd round defeats in the last two years. His recent form sees five wins from his last ten matches, but he has had a good season, winning a Euro Tour title and two Players Championships. He has reached two major finals but lost both.
Big Boris got his first win at Ally Pally when he beat Toru Suzuki 3-0 in his first round match. It was an OK performance but he will need to improve considerably. He has played Aspinall twice, both this year and it is one win apiece. They have not met in a TV event before and The Asp is a far better player on the big stages than Krčmar. Boris has hit a 107 average on TV, in last year’s Players Championships finals, but still lost the match to Michael Smith. He has a good A game but over this longer format you have to fancy that the experience of Aspinall will prevail.
Aspinall’s Turf
Aspinall is the 1.29 favourite to win with Krčmar 4.20. In a floor event and first to six format, Boris has a chance, but to win a best of five sets match on TV, he is playing on Aspinall’s turf.
Aspinall has won all four of his second round matches here but none to nil, and three have gone to a deciding set. That suggests he is a bit tight in his opener and that may let Boris get something from the game.
