2022 Christmas Racing Tips and Previews – DS
2022 Christmas Racing Tips
Tis the season to be jolly, and tis also the season of top quality equine action. In both Ireland and the UK there is a feast of horse racing action to get stuck into and hopefully, we can land a winner or two. Our racing analyst Dave Stevos has found a quartet of horses, all at big prices, that might be worth sticking in a sneaky Festive e/w Lucky 15 (small e/w singles recommended too). Get Dave’s 2022 Christmas racing tips below.
1.58 Down Royal Monday – 20f Handicap Chase (0-102)
Some trainers tend to prime their horses for certain meetings at certain times of the year. Sarah Dawson has managed to produce Magic Sea in top form at Down Royal’s Boxing Day meeting for two of the past three years and at huge odds, it might be worth chancing him in this 20f handicap chase.
Admittedly, this horse has not shown much on his last few runs. However, I wouldn’t be too concerned. Dawson has likely been training him with this race in mind and he arrives off a mark of just 95 with Conor Brassil claiming another 5lbs. That means he is 7lbs lower than when beat a head here over hurdles on this day a year ago and 4lbs lower than the mark he won (by 15L) off in 2019.
Back in March the 7yo son of Born To Sea produced his best chase run to date. He was beat just 3L into 2nd off 98 at Downpatrick and with his jockey’s claim, he is effectively 8lbs lower today. He likes this track, the ground should be soft enough for him and at odds of 50/1, Magic Sea can hopefully bounce back to form and make his presence felt.
2022 Christmas racing tips: Magic Sea e/w @ 50/1 (5 Places)
2.50 Market Rasen Monday – Lincolnshire National Handicap Chase (Class 3)
With Theo Gillard taking off 3lbs, Innisfree Lad is a very interesting contender in this valuable class 3 marathon. Trained by David Dennis, this 10yo pulled up last time out at Haydock (28.5 sft). However, he previously ran a massive race in a decent heat at Carlisle, beat into 2nd off a mark of 127. He is 1lb higher today but Theo Gillard’s claim means he is effectively 2lbs lower.
I usually like backing horses with previous course form but Innisfree Lad doesn’t have any. However, he has a more than decent record on similar sharp, mostly flat and right handed courses. His form figures going right handed at 24f or further read 20511162362 and the last time Theo Gillard was on board, he ran a blinder in the Eider, beat 8L into 3rd by Win My Wings.
That was off 135 and he is now rated 8lbs lower and in a much weaker race. You’d imagine that the Eider will be on his radar again but even if he won here, he’d still probably get in off a lower rating than last season. If he is trying, Innisfree Lad is more than capable of hitting the frame here at odds of 40/1.
2022 Christmas racing tips: Innisfree Lad e/w @ 40/1 (5 places)
2.50 Chepstow Tuesday – Welsh Grand National (Premier)
As ever, staying is the name of the game in this grueller of a race. You want a horse that stays longer than the mother in law and for me, Fortescue looks a fascinating contender. We have backed this horse in the past, at Haydock when he was 3rd in the Peter Marsh (25f sft). He of course won next time out over 24f at Ascot before unseating when beaten in the Aintree Grand National.
His return at Bangor in November (23f sft) was nothing to write home about. However, he shaped much better back at Aintree last time out, running on very nicely late on for 4th in the Becher over 26f. The handicapper has given him a pound back for that run but he’ll be running off the same mark of 145 here.
His last win came off 144 so he isn’t badly handicapped and he has run well over shorter at Chepstow on his sole previous visit. Henry Daly won this back in 1999 with Edmond so he knows what a Welsh National winner looks like and the owner has 2 winners and 5 top 4s from just 14 runners at Chepstow. Soft/good to soft ground is perfect and at odds of 20/1, Fortescue is the each way selection.
2022 Christmas racing tips: Fortescue e/w @ 20/1 (4 places) NB
3.00 Leopardstown Tuesday – Paddy Power Chase (Grade B)
The one I am interested in here now stepping up to 3 miles for the first time is Take All. Trained in Kildare by Seamus Fahey, this son of Golden Lariat shaped extremely well behind Farceur Du Large last time out at Punchestown (22f yld). Dropped out in rear by Kevin Sexton, he made up lots of ground on the final circuit and he just failed to reel in the winner.
The handicapper gave him 2lbs for that 1.75L defeat. He had subsequent Porterstown Chase runner up Fakiera 10L behind and he was conceding 7lbs to that horse. It was a pretty big pot at Punchestown and he was nibbled from 50s into 33s before the off so presumably, Fahey was expecting the step up in trip to bring about another chunk of improvement.
At last year’s Xmas meeting he ran a blinder behind Grange Walk to finish 3rd off 135 over 17f (sft), his second place from two previous visits to Leopardstown. His sire is a big stamina source (sire of Lord Lariat) and the way this horse has been campaigned suggests that his trainer believes he has a big one in him at this sort of distance. Luck will be required given his racing style but if he avoids trouble, hopefully Take All can run a massive race at odds of 33/1.
