2023 Cheltenham and Musselburgh Sunday Tips – DS
2023 Cheltenham and Musselburgh Tips
We finished 2022 with a flourish. Potters Hedger and Fagan both ran poorly but the rest all ran very well. The well backed Mongol Emperor and Warranty both finished in 4th. Bread And Butter missed out on a place by a nose and You Wear It Well ran a massive race to land our place NB at 18/1. The Kings Writ was the highlight, staying on dourly close to home to win. Advised at 40s, he returned at 11s. Here’s hoping we get off to a good start in the New Year, check out Dave’s 2023 Cheltenham and Musselburgh Tips below.
1.20 Cheltenham – Dipper Novices’ Chase (Grade 2)
Ground on the soft side at Cheltenham! Who’d have thought it. It was described as good to soft on Saturday morning but plenty of rain was forecast to fall on New Year’s Eve. That won’t inconvenience the favourite here, Monmiral. Paul Nicholls had a big winner in these silks on Saturday and this talented but frustrating horse will bid to give him more to shout about.
There was plenty to like about his chasing debut behind Jonbon but you’d wonder why he hasn’t run at Cheltenham before. He didn’t win a race in three starts last season and that sequence continued in November. Would I be steaming in at short odds on a horse with his record? No chance. Thunder Rock is the main market rival and he has won both chase starts well. The son of Shirocco wasn’t as good over hurdles as Monmiral but he seems to have taken to this game very well.
Jumping Concerns
At 6/1 Beauport will like this ground. He lowered the colours of the useful Millers Bank on his chasing bow at Carlisle (20f sft). The Twiston Davies horse was admittedly getting 12lbs from that rival but even so, it was a solid performance. He didn’t jump well at Haydock last time though and connections will be hoping a more truly run race will help him in the jumping department today.
This trip looks a bit too short for The Real Whacker, a 3 mile winner here last time. He might prefer quicker ground too. Harpers Brook was a decent hurdler but he has a lot of improving to do to trouble the top two or three in this race. The more rain that falls, the better his chance will be. If there was 8 runners, I’d probably back him e/w in the hope that he’d stay on late for 3rd. However, with just six going to post this is a race I’m happy to just watch. No bet.
2023 Cheltenham and Musselburgh Tips: No Bet
1.35 Musselburgh – Auld Reekie Handicap Chase (Class 2)
Raymond Anderson Green is always an owner to be feared in these Northern handicaps. He runs two here and while Gold De Bois is shorter, Cedar Hill could be the one to be on at around 12/1. By Frammassone, this 9yo has won around Musselburgh over a shorter trip. He has never won at beyond 17f but he did run a pretty good race when 3rd here behind Gaelik Coast over 20.5f on soft back in October 2021.
That run came off 124 and he was only beaten 4 lengths for the win. This will be his first run at the distance since and on his comeback at Ayr, he stayed on pretty well over 16.5f to finish 3rd, 2L behind the winner.
Last time at Kelso he ran a stinker, making a couple of uncharacteristic jumping errors. I’m willing to put a line through that effort and he is now back down to 122, a pound lower than he was when hacking up over 16f here back in February. Hopefully Derek Fox drops him out, gets him jumping and produces him late for place money at odds of 12/1.
2023 Cheltenham and Musselburgh Tips: Cedar Hill e/w @ 12/1 NB
1.55 Cheltenham – New Year’s Day Handicap Chase (Premier)
It’s a real pity that Harry Kimber isn’t riding Deyrann De Carjac today. He got a serious round of jumping out of him here last time and in another 50 yards he would have passed Il Ridoto and finished 4th. He had to settle for 5th at the finish, 0.75L behind Il Ridoto and 5.75L behind the winner, Ga Law.
Deyrann was running from 4lbs out of the handicap last time off a mark of 130. The assessor hiked him 3lbs so he is in off his correct rating today and King has enlisted another 5lb claimer, Alex Thorne, to further ease his burden.
The recent rain is not a worry and he is effectively racing off 124 today, 7lbs lower than when 5th in this race last season. How the bookies have Il Ridoto at 13/2 and Deyrann De Carjac at 33/1 is a bit puzzling. Alan King’s charge has finished 5th in his last three runs in big handicap chases around here and with most firms paying 5 places e/w, hopefully he can repeat the trick again today.
2023 Cheltenham and Musselburgh Tips: Deyrann De Carjac e/w @ 33/1 (5 places) NAP
2.15 Tramore – New Year’s Day Chase (Grade 3)
Another race where a watching brief is advised. Stattler might find the trip and track a bit sharp and who knows what version of Minella Indo will show up. He’s winless since his Gold Cup win and has failed to complete on two of his last four starts. The other two runs were fine efforts in G1 company so it all depends on what side of bed he gets out of.
El Barra bled two runs back and won but he is not one to trust. Cilaos Emery and Roi Mage complete the field but neither are betting propositions. If Minella Indo is 90% right he should win, but odds of 15/8 don’t appeal. No bet.
2023 Cheltenham and Musselburgh Tips: No Bet
2.30 Cheltenham – Relkeel Hurdle (Grade 2)
A tight betting affair with Marie’s Rock a narrow 3/1 favourite for Henderson and De Boinville. She has won four of her last five, including a pair of G1s on her last two starts. She is a course winner, she gets weight from the boys and if fully fit, she is the one to beat.
I Like To Move it is another promising sort. He just failed to reel in Glory And Fortune in the Betfair Hurdle and after a poor run at the Festival, he showed what he was capable of when winning back there on his seasonal bow off top weight. Nigel Twiston Davies said afterwards he’d prefer softer conditions so it will be very interesting to see how he gets on today.
Ground Worries
The rain will be a worry for Knappers Hill. He is a progressive horse and he has won his last four in a row. All of those wins came on quick ground though and his last three runs on ground with soft in the description have resulted in defeat. First Street has a similar profile to I Like To Move it. Second in the County behind State Man (to whom he was giving a pound), he landed a Newbury handicap off 146 on his return to action. State Man sluiced up in a G1 at Leopardstown this week so First Street has to be seriously feared.
The softer it is, the bigger chance Dashel Drasher will have. He is an exceedingly tough mud lover who is equally effective over fences and hurdles. Last time he found just Noble Yeats too good at Aintree over 25f and he has winning C&D form. Jeremy Scott’s stable star is now a 10yo though and unless it turns heavy, he might just lack the speed possessed by some of his rivals. However, if it turns into a scrap, he won’t be easy to pass.
Stronger Renewal
Of those at double figure odds, Brewin’upastorm has the ability to run well, if in the mood. Olly Murphy’s 10yo fell at the last hurdle in this last season when looking like he might win. He again unseated early on his return to action at Aintree before running a decent race behind Goshen at Ascot in November. He’ll be fitter now but this arguably looks a better renewal than last season and I’d imagine his main aim will be the valuable hurdle he landed at Lingfield’s big meeting in three weeks’ time.
Tritonic’s 4L 2nd behind I Like To Move it when conceding 8lbs would give him every chance here. He beat Goshen off 98 at Goodwood over 12f in October before running poorly in the November Handicap at Doncaster. If it were good ground, I’d probably take a chance on him at the prices but his record on softer than good isn’t great.
Well Regarded
That leaves us with Langer Dan. He’s always been well regarded by the Skeltons. The son of Ocovango has run very well on all of his completed starts at this track and he had his big day in the sun when winning a valuable pot at Aintree on his last run of the season. This year he has run below par at that venue twice, including in a handicap behind our 50/1 winner Romeo Brown.
On his first run back he finished 8L behind Dashel Drasher (20f sft) and they meet on the same terms here. He put it up to Galopin Des Champs over this C&D in the Martin Pipe in 2021 when only getting 7lbs and he was 9L ahead of the 3rd.
I’d imagine the Skeltons have been looking forward to getting him back to Cheltenham and it might be a bit too soon to write him off at this level. He is still only a 7yo and it wouldn’t be impossible for him to find the 7 or 8 pounds of improvement needed to sneak a place. I Like To Move it probably wins but at 33/1, I’m going to have a small e/w bet on Langer Dan. Fingers crossed he runs a decent race.
2023 Cheltenham and Musselburgh Tips: Langer Dan e/w @ 33/1
2.45 Musselburgh – Hogmaneigh Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)
Lucinda Russell landed a nice winner for us last year at this meeting, maybe she can repeat the dose with Thereisnodoubt on New Year’s Day 2023. Derk Fox gets the leg up on this 10yo son of Primary and he is lurking off a very dangerous mark of 117. He admittedly hasn’t run brilliantly on his first two outings of this campaign but his last run at Catterick when 4th wasn’t a complete disaster.
After he made the move from Ireland he ran a couple of crackers at Wetherby (19f gd) and Carlisle (19f sft). He finished 2nd in both those runs, beat a neck off 121 and then 1.25L off 123. His best form in Ireland came on soft ground and his last win over there came at Navan off 117, the same rating he races off today.
A horse with his profile is unlikely to get many chances to run in races as valuable as this so you’d imagine he’ll be trying. His owner has never had a jumps winner but she has had 8 on the flat and she is 1/11 with six top 4 finishes at this track. Derek Fox has finished in the first 4 in 8 of his 15 rides for her. At odds of 18/1, hopefully Thereisnodoubt can run into the money for him today.
2023 Cheltenham and Musselburgh Tips: Thereisnodoubt e/w @ 18/1 (4 places)
3.05 Cheltenham – Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)
In the hope that there has been enough rain, and that the first time visor sparks a revival, Brinkley is the e/w selection here. Trained by David Pipe, Tom Scu rides this son of Martaline and he loves it when the mud is flying. He did win a novice chase on good but his other three career wins have come on soft or heavy, including a 23f handicap hurdle at Exeter in Feb 2021 off a mark of 140.
On his final run of last season he finished 3rd behind Ballyandy at Chepstow, beat 10L off 142. He had pulled up on his previous start which proves he can bounce back from a poor effort. He’ll have to do that again here. At Haydock he ran well below his best on his seasonal comeback but to be fair to this horse, he has needed the first run back in two of the last three years.
Visor Magic
The fact that he is in a first time visor is another cause for optimism. When he wore cheekpieces for the first time, he hacked up at Wincanton. Then, the first time he sported a tongue tie/cheekpieces combination he also won. Let’s hope the visor has a similar effect. Brinkley is 4lbs below his last winning mark, rain is a huge plus and his trainer had a welcome winner at Uttoxeter on Saturday. At odds of 16/1, he is the e/w selection.
