Monday 2023 PDC World Championship Tips – JP
Monday 2023 PDC World Championship Preview
Another very good night for James Punt at the Ally Pally last night. Three of his four tips won, including Clemens to beat Price at 5.00. His outright ‘MVG and Smith to reach the final’ tip is still alive, as is his headline tip on Smith to win it all. Let’s hope both men progress tonight. Check out his Monday 2023 PDC World Championship tips below.
Gabriel Clemens vs. Michael Smith
Gabriel Clemens, The German Giant, is the biggest thing from Germany to hit the Ally Pally since that Doodle Bug in 1944. He ended our bet on Price to make the semi-final with a 5-1 thrashing, but that was covered by backing Clemens at 5.00 yesterday. It was a very impressive performance by Clemens, which is easy to overlook after Price’s minor meltdown with the ear defenders and threatening never to return.
Clemens averaged 99.9 and but for some sticky legs on the doubles, it would have been higher still. His tournament average stands at 96.65, comfortably better than his seasonal 92.43. Clemens does not fit the profile of a World Champion. He has never won a PDC title of any description, never mind a major, so were he to go on a win, it would be the biggest of shocks for the ante post 301.00 shot.
Will Reality Hit?
There will be a point where the reality of what he is doing hits him. He has lost five pro-tour finals and his only other TV semi-final was in the 2020 World Cup of Darts, which Germany lost. His season has not been one of notable success, two Euro Tour quarter finals late in the season were the only hints that he was returning to form. He has now won seven of his last ten matches so he is in good form, but he is the weakest link of the remaining four players.
Michael Smith’s tournament average is 96.67, virtually identical to Clemens. Smith’s 12 month average is 97.0, so he is playing at his ‘normal rate’ so far. However, he does tick the right boxes when it comes to a potential champion. He has won a major title this year along with five other titles, he is a two time finalist here and his biggest weakness is that he has lost eight major finals. However, when it comes to ranking major semi-finals, he has played eleven and won six, including two from two here at Ally Pally. He beat Nathan Aspinall 6-3 and James Wade, also 6-3.
Mixed Performances
Smith’s performances so far have been mixed. He wasn’t great against Martin Schindler but came back from 1-3 down to win 4-3, he was impressive when beating Joe Cullen 4-1, he was outscored by Stephen Bunting yesterday, but still managed a 5-3 win despite averaging 5.50 points lower than Bunting. He has kept head up when being outplayed, not given up and found a way to win. Before his major win would he have been able to do that? He appears to have added mental toughness to his armoury.
However, he is going to have to up his game at some stage if he is to land the big one. His 180 hitting has been poor by his standard and while he is still banging in plenty of 140s, he could do with upping his scoring to make life easier. His doubling, a bit of a weakness under pressure in the past, has been consistent and generally around his 12 month rate of 41%.
Can Clemens Keep Delivering?
This match revolves around Clemens. Can he keep it up? Will he be able to play his A game in the biggest match of his life? He has already earned £100000 for getting this far, so whatever happens, he has moved up the rankings and will trouser a big pile of cash. If he can just convince himself that he is rolling now, anything else is a bonus, he might be able to relax enough to play his game. If he starts to get ahead of himself and thinks about the final and being Champion, he is likely to start feeling it.
Smith has been there, seen it, got the t-shirt. He knows what he has to do, and his nerves are much more likely to be a problem in the actual final, should he get there.
In terms of their relative form in this year’s event, there is nothing between them. In terms of big match experience, Smith has a huge advantage. Clemens will have around 1000 German fans in to cheer him on, but his opponent will not be getting barracked and jeered to anything like the same level as Price was yesterday.
Smith Dominates H2H
Their H2H record is 4-1 to Smith and he won their only TV match 10-8 in this year’s UK Open. Clemens didn’t fold in that match, but Smith prevailed in the end. I can see something similar here, but Smith to win by a bigger margin. Clemens has overperformed so far, and he is likely to find it hard to keep his standard up in a best of 11 set match.
Smith is the 1.33 favourite with Clemens 3.50. I won’t argue with those odds.
The fact that Smith has played in two previous World Championship semi-finals and won both 6-3, shows that he knows what is required and he knows that he can do it. He is a mentally stronger player thanks to his recent major win, and he should be able to break down the German’s defence, especially if he can find more 180s. His finishing kept him in the match with a higher scoring Bunting yesterday, but it would be better if he was bossing the match, rather than chasing for most of it.
We are on Smith to meet MVG in the final and that is almost enough interest in the match for me, but I cannot resist the odds on Smith having another 6-3 win in an Ally Pally final.
Monday 2023 PDC World Championship tip: 0.5 point Michael Smith to win 6-3 @ 6.00 with SpreadEx
Michael van Gerwen vs. Dimitri van den Bergh
Van Gerwen dispatched Chris Dobey 5-0 last night. He is the 1.15 favourite to win this and Van den Bergh 6.00. MVG’s tournament average is 103.0, better than his 12 month average of 98.77. The best player in the game based on 12 month form, is playing better than his very high average.
MVG has won 10 titles in 2022, he has won his last ten matches in a row, won three World Championships and played in seven previous semi-finals at Ally Pally, winning five. Van den Bergh has won one ranked major title, has won two World Series titles in 2022 but it has been a fairly disappointing season for him otherwise.
Second Best v Ferret
Van den Berg’s tournament average is 94.6, a little below his 12 month average of 95.6. He beat Jonny Clayton 5-3 yesterday despite being very much second best for the first five sets. He clung on and then took advantage when Clayton started missing. It was a decent performance, but Clayton will see it as a chance that got away.
Their H2H record is 11-1 to Van Gerwen. I thought Van den Bergh would have won a few more than that. He is a slow, deliberate player and MVG prefers a fast pace, but he has learned to cope with the slower players. Van den Bergh’s only win came back in 2018, at the German Masters World Series event.
That was played in front of 20000 people and Dimitri is not shy in front of a big crowd. They met four times in 2022 and all went MVG’s way, including in two ranked majors on TV. There was a 17-14 win in the World Matchplay semi-final and a 10-6 win at the recent Players Championship finals.
MVG Hard To Oppose
It is very hard to make a case for anything else than a win for Van Gerwen. He has Van den Bergh’s number; he is playing better and he knows how to win semi-finals at Ally Pally. A bit like with Clemens, Van den Bergh is carrying the flag for his nation.
Like Germany, Belgium is darts mad and they are desperate for success. That will inspire Van den Bergh, but the reality is that he needs MVG to have an off day, and he hasn’t looked like having one so far.
I can’t see another win to nil for MVG, Van den Bergh is a more mentally robust player than Chris Dobey, but he is trying to stop a Juggernaut and he may struggle to get too many legs on the board, never mind sets.
In the last ten years, 40% of the semi-finals have been won by a 6-3 margin but getting three sets looks like a very stiff task for the Belgian. 65% of the semi-finals have been over 8.5 sets and you can get even money over 8.5, which makes for a decent stats bet, but I will go against the stats and say that MVG wins comfortably.
