Tuesday 2023 PDC World Championship Final Tips – JP
Tuesday 2023 PDC World Championship Preview
Another winner for James Punt on Monday night and also an outright preview winner. He advised Smith and Van Gerwen to be finalist at 15.00 and they play in the decider later tonight. Check out his Tuesday 2023 PDC World Championship tips below.
Michael van Gerwen vs. Michael Smith
It is nice to have got the main bet landed before the final kicks off. An MVG vs. Smith final always looked likely and the odds of 15.00 surprisingly generous. Now, the only thing to decide is which Michael wins. Will it be title number four for Van Gerwen, or can Michael Smith fulfil his destiny and win a World Championship? If it is to be the latter, Smith is going to have up his game or hope that Van Gerwen has an off night, which looks unlikely.
MVG At Brilliant Best
MVG has been the best player in the tournament and comfortably so. His tournament average is 104, he has averaged over a ton in all five matches so far, dropped just three sets and his first nine dart average is 117. His checkout rate is 45% and he is hitting 180s at 0.314 per leg. All top-class stats.
His form shows ten wins from his last ten matches, and he is going for back-to-back major titles, having won the Players Championship finals before this one. I think we can say that he is at the top of his game, and he has a great game.
Smith A Touch Inconsistent
Michael Smith has been a bit more inconsistent in his performances, he has won all five matches reasonably well, but he has dropped nine sets. His tournament average is 97.7, his checkout rate 42%, he is hitting 180s @ 0.344 per leg and his first nine dart average is 107.8. All excellent stats, but just not as good as MVG’s. Smith is in excellent form, winning nine of his last ten. Again, not as good as MVG.
Their H2H record is 37-13 to Van Gerwen. In 2022 it was 5-3, on TV 17-7 and in World Championship finals 1-0. Again, the stats favour MVG. The one straw that Smith can cling to, is that he has won their last three matches. He lost five of their six Premier League matches in 2022 but three required a deciding leg. Smith has been getting closer to MVG in matches and he isn’t as cowed as maybe he once was.
MVG is the 1.30 favourite and Smith 3.50, exactly as I make them, so no value there. We have backed Smith each way at 9.00, so the place part of that bet has also landed. I will be laying off at least some of the win stake but how much is up to the individual, you can’t go broke taking a profit.
Side Markets
Correct score wise, we shouldn’t expect a close match based on past finals. In the last ten years only one match went to a deciding set. A 7-3 score line has happened four times, 7-4 and 7-5 both twice and there was one 7-2.
Michael van Gerwen has played in five previous finals and won three. His winning scores were 7-4, 7-3 and 7-3, and losing scores 4-7 and 3-7. Michael Smith has played in two previous finals and lost both, one 3-7 to MVG and last year, 5-7 to Peter Wright. 7-3 is a popular result, it was the result of their previous final, and it would be no surprise to see it again.
MVG Flawless Last 2 Rounds
MVG won his quarter and semi-finals to nil. Dobey and Van den Bergh are not as good as Michael Smith, and I can’t see him not getting on the scoreboard, but he is likely to find Van Gerwen very hard to resist.
Smith has struggled to dominate his opponents, only beating Nathan Rafferty to nil. Gabriel Clemens was giving him a good game last night and didn’t deserve to lose by a 6-2 margin. Bunting was the better player for much of their quarter final and Schindler had him on the ropes.
Van Gerwen has basically swatted all of his opponents aside, with just a bit of resistance from Suljovic making him engage beast mode.
Tuesday 2023 PDC World Championship tip: 0.5 point Michael van Gerwen to win 7-3 @ 7.00 with Skybet, Fitzdares
We have backed Smith to have the most tournament 180s and the good news is that after he hit 19 last night, Smith is sitting on 44 and MVG 32. Only MVG can deny us that winner and Smith gets a head start of 12 maximums in the final. He is the 1.53 favourite to have the most 180s tonight, so we are sitting pretty.
Last year’s final saw Smith hit 24 over the 12 sets played. It is unlikely he will have the number of sets played to get close to that, but he hit 19 in eight sets last night, so he might not be far away. MVG has been hitting plenty himself, not quite at the same rate as Smith, but he is not far off at 0.314 per leg compared to Smiths 0.344. Smith has played more legs, hence the big gap in 180s hit.
Looking at the last ten World Championship finals, under 32.5 maximums came in seven times. Only in 2022, 2017 and 2016 did we see more. Only the 2017 final saw over 32.5 maximums with less than 12 sets being played. I don’t expect a long match tonight and an unders bet looks the way to go. When these two met in the 2019 final they hit 27 between them in a match that ended 7-3.
Tuesday 2023 PDC World Championship tip: 1 point under 32.5 180s @ 1.70 with Ladbrokes
The total sets market looks to have some value. In the last ten years, five finals have seen over 10.5 sets played. In the last six years, only one was over 10.5. Going back to 2000 when the final was made best of thirteen sets, only ten of the twenty two finals had more than 10.5 sets. It is not huge value but under 10.5 sets makes enough appeal.
