2023 Naas Lawlors Novice Hurdle Preview and Tip – DS
2023 Naas Lawlors Novice Hurdle Preview
It was a blank for us at Sandown on Saturday. It was a sign of things to come when the front runner High In The Air was held up out the back. Gladiateur Allen was backed off the boards but the quirky customer wasn’t motivated by the application of cash. I thought Colonel Harry ran a cracker, if Jamie Snowden can straighten his jumping out he has a very nice horse on his hands. Kauto Riko was still travelling well when unseating, Tiger Voice ran no sort of race. Dave Stevos is back in action in Ireland on Sunday, check out his 2023 Naas Lawlors Novice Hurdle preview below.
2.20 – Lawlor’s of Naas Novice Hurdle (grade 1)
The first few races provide no betting opportunities so we start off in the big one. Nine are due to go to post and after a soggy Saturday in Ireland, the ground is going to be closer to heavy than soft. For most of these novices, that won’t be an issue. Grangeclare West is fav and he is 3/3 on soft, winning a P2P, bumper and maiden hurdle. The form of his last win isn’t overly strong but he couldn’t have won more impressively. It wouldn’t surprise me if he won but his odds are on the skinny side.
Irish Point ran the hugely promising Marine Nationale to within a short head in the Royal Bond. I’m a big fan of the Connell horse having seen him win at Punchestown and that’s the best form on offer in this race. This 5yo son of Joshua Tree will relish the ground and his dam won over 21f so there’s a good chance he’ll stay this extra 4f. If I had to pick between the top two, he’d probably be the one I’d go for at the prices.
Unbeaten
Gavin Cromwell has had a couple of useful hurdlers for JP and Inothewayurthinkin looks another decent prospect. He remains unbeaten after two starts, both on heavy ground. His Cork maiden hurdle win hasn’t really worked out but his Gowran Novice win looks decent form. He picked off the front running Imagine close to home in that 16f contest and the first three were 30L clear of the 4th. There’s loads of stamina in his pedigree so the trip should be fine and it’ll be interesting to see if the money comes.
Champ Kiely was 4.5L behind Irish Point at Fairyhouse. His three previous wins came on yielding and good, so maybe he found the going a bit too testing last time. Unfortunately, he faces a similar scenario today. He can lead and he often races freely so he could well play a part in shaping the early stages of the race. On the forecast ground he might struggle to get home but he’ll be one to keep an eye out for on better ground in the Spring.
Improving
Dawn Rising is improving rapidly over hurdles. A good ground maiden winner on the level, the son of Galileo showed a liking for soft ground last time at Navan. I think he had Affordable Fury’s measure when that horse fell at the last in that G3. The Meade horse’s tank was emptying and there was only a couple of lengths between them at the final flight. I’d fancy Dawn Rising to uphold that form and he should be finishing stronger than most.
Monbeg Park and Kalanisi Star both drop back in distance after failing to stay last time. The McKiernan horse beat Monbeg Star by 16 lengths when they met over 18f in a heavy ground Gowran bumper and the Doyle horse was also 3L behind Affordable Fury when they met over 22f at Galway. As is often the case, the bookies have underestimated the chance of an Oliver McKiernan horse and I don’t think he should be a 66/1 poke. He could outrun his odds.
Imagine Could Go Well
Gordon Elliott runs two in this and on jockey bookings, Imagine is the second string. By Montmartre, this 5yo was just reeled in late on in a Gowran novice by Inothewayurthinkin. He was previously a close 2nd behind Hercule De Seuil in a Navan G3. That horse let the form down next time but Three Card Brag, almost 2L behind Imagine in 3rd, was narrowly beaten in a G2 here subsequently. That’s solid form and if Jordan Gainford rides this horse more patiently today, I think he might sneak into the first three.
It was a gallant effort from the front here last time but the Cromwell horse just did him for speed in the last 50 yards or so. Only 0.5L separated them at the finish so I’m not sure Elliott’s charge should be 4x the price of that rival. If he takes on the likely front runners for the lead here, i’m not sure that will work. However, if Gainford can drop him out and get him settled, like Jamie Codd did when winning a bumper on him, this lad could run a lot better than his odds of 28/1 might suggest. A modest each way interest is advised in what looks an intriguing race.
