2023 Cheltenham Gold Cup Ante-Post Preview & Tip – DS
2023 Cheltenham Gold Cup Ante-Post Preview
Now that we are well into the New Year, it would be rude not to have a sneaky look at the 2023 Cheltenham Gold Cup. In 2022 it was A Plus Tard that ran out an easy winner and this year, the bookies reckon Galopin Des Champs is going to do the same. Does Dave Stevos agree with the oddsmakers? Find out what he is backing below.
17th March: 2023 Cheltenham Gold Cup
Will there be an Irish winner of the Gold Cup on Paddy’s Day? The bookmakers reckon so and their 6/4 favourite to do so is Galopin Des Champs. A faller at last year’s festival with the Turner’s at his mercy, he has won both starts since by a combined distance of 31 lengths. However, both of those wins came over 20f and while he won over timber at 3 miles, he has yet to race in a proper Grade 1 chase beyond 21f.
Speed and Stamina
I’m a big believer that a horse needs a touch of speed as well as stamina to win a Gold Cup. So, it is a plus that Galopin has the pace to be winning Grade 1s at 20f/21f but will he be able to do it over 26f at Cheltenham? On pedigree, there has to be serious doubts. His sire Timos is by the sire of Gold Cup winner Don Cossack, Sholokhov, but his damsire is Marchand de Sable and the top NH horses with Marchand de Sable as the damsire have not been strong stayers (Sceau Royal, Taquin Du Seuil, Old Guard).
We’ve yet to see him run in, let alone win, in G1 company over fences at 3 miles plus. He fell at the Festival last year and while yes, he is clearly an extremely talented horse, I don’t think he should be a 6/4 shot. If he is able to maintain his high cruising speed for 24f and then stay up the hill, it’ll be some performance. However, he might just set it up for a stronger stayer.
Reigning Champ
You’d imagine A Plus Tard will be perfectly suited by what will likely be a strong gallop. Rachael Blackmore will take her time on Henry De Bromhead’s charge and try to pick off the pace makers coming to the last, just like last year. However, the 9yo son of Kapgarde has to bounce back from a bitterly disappointing run in the Betfair Chase at Haydock.
To be honest, I wouldn’t be too concerned about that effort. It was testing ground and all his peak efforts at 24f+ have come on good to soft and yielding. It was far from ideal that he hurt himself en route to Leopardstown over the Xmas and couldn’t run, so perhaps we’ll see him at the Dublin Racing Festival. He’s 8/1 at the minute, if he runs at Leopardstown and runs well, it is hard to see those odds lasting too long.
Home Challenge
The biggest hopes for a rare home win in the Cheltenham Gold Cup look to be L’Homme Presse (7/1), Bravemansgame (9/1) and Protektorat (9/1). Shishkin was left in at the latest forfeit stage but he looks a pale imitation of his former self. L’Homme Presse is a horse I have huge respect for. I wouldn’t judge him too harshly on Kempton.
Running him in an ultra-competitive Newcastle handicap carrying 12 stone on his seasonal comeback probably wasn’t the best idea Venetia Williams has ever had, especially just 4 weeks before the King George. That run probably took its toll on him at Kempton and you’d imagine he’ll be far fresher come March.
He does tick a lot of boxes (right age, multiple course winner) but I just worry whether that experience last time out, on top of his hard race at Newcastle, might have left a mark. Hopefully I’m wrong because he’s cracking horse on his day and I wouldn’t mind seeing him win.
Track Concerns
Bravemansgame was undeniably impressive at Kempton in the King George. However, it must be said that the race fell apart for him with L’Homme Presse, Hitman and Envoi Allen all disappointing. His first run of the campaign saw him win a pretty weak renewal of the Charlie Hall, getting weight from three of his rivals.
There is no doubt that this horse is talented and he is one of a couple in here that had a wind-op in the off season. The King George was the first chase he has won with more than five runners and he was well beaten on his only previous visit to Cheltenham. 26f there is a different kettle of fish to 24f at Kempton and I think the jury is still out on whether this test will suit the 8yo son of Brave Mansonnien.
Unfinished Business
Protektorat has unfinished business in this contest. The Skeltons’ stable star hacked up at Haydock in the Betfair Chase, jumping like a bunny and running strongly through the line. He was only a 7yo when 3rd in the 2022 renewal and it wasn’t Harry Skelton’s best ride. An uncharacteristic mistake at the last checked his momentum but he stayed on stoutly up the hill afterwards to hold on to third spot. He then flopped at Aintree but the wind-op he had in the off season has clearly had the desired effect.
If his wind was bothering him in last year’s race, it was some effort. He should have learned a lot from that experience and I thought that Haydock win was an extremely impressive performance. Yeah, A Plus Tard didn’t show up on the day but the way he won suggested that there was plenty more left in reserve if required. Of those at the head of the market, he’s the one that represents the best value at around 9/1.
Best Of The Rest
Conflated hacked up at Leopardstown over Christmas in the Savills Chase. A shock winner at the Dublin Racing Festival last year, Gordon Elliott’s son of Yeats fell in the Ryanair when coming with his run. He proved Leopardstown was no fluke when keeping Clan Des Obeaux honest at Aintree and he’s definitely worth his place in the race. You couldn’t discount him completely but a career best will be required from the 9yo.
10yo Minella Indo and Stattler fought out a thrilling finish at Tramore on New Year’s Day. The 2021 winner of this race came out on top in a photo over a trip of 21f on bad ground, fending off the Mullins horse by a neck.
Stattler won the 30f race at the festival last year and as an 8yo, time is on his side. I’m just not sure he possesses that turn of foot that will be needed to win a Gold Cup. He’ll definitely stay all day so if they go an insane gallop and the ground is soft (which is a strong possibility) it could just play to his strengths. No 10yo has won since 1998 so maybe Minella Indo’s chances of a repeat win are slim. Neither horse appeals at their odds of 10s and 20s.
Noble Form Questions
Last year’s Grand National hero Noble Yeats announced himself as a contender for this with a very visually impressive G2 win at Aintree. He took a while to hit top gear but once he did, he swept past Dashel Drasher and Ahoy Senor to score by 3.25L. The son of Yeats will clearly get the trip, being a Grand National winner, and he is still a relatively young horse.
Even though I am a huge fan of Dashel Drasher, he is no Gold Cup horse. Either is Ahoy Senor on this season’s evidence. The fact that those two were within 4L of Noble Yeats at Aintree last time has to raise doubts about the strength of the form.
I wouldn’t read anything into his poor run at the Festival last year, he was clearly being lined up for Aintree. However, he’s never run in Grade 1 company at any point and that alone is enough to put me off, let alone the question marks over the form of his last run. If you were on at 66s or 50s, obviously you’d be delighted but 8/1? I’d be happy to let him go at those odds. He still has plenty to prove and the Gold Cup is a hell of a race to make your G1 debut in.
Shark Circling
Hewick is another one that well deserves a mention. The Shark has found himself another bargain with this son of Virtual. He forked out a whopping 850 euros to land him at the sales and he has now won almost £400k in prize money. A journeyman hurdler, Hewick has been transformed since tackling the bigger obstacles. Considering he fell twice in P2Ps, it was an unexpected development.
On his last four chase runs he has won the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown (29f gd) off 149, the Galway Plate (22.5f gd) off 155, he unseated at the last when coming to win the Kerry National and then last time out he hacked up in the G1 US Grand National at Far Hills.
It is bonus territory for connections at this stage and if the ground is good, his fairytale run may continue. If he handled soft ground, I’d be tempted to back him at 25s, but his odds probably won’t shorten too much before the race so it makes sense to wait until closer to the day before betting him.
Take A Flyer On Franco
He doesn’t tick the course form box, he’s only won two of his sixteen chase starts and he has a heap to find on the official figures. All that said, I saw enough in Franco De Port’s Leopardstown run last time, and also on his seasonal comeback at Gowran, to suggest he might just outrun his odds if he turns up here.
At Leopardstown he was given a very strange ride by Danny Mullins. He was very keen at around the halfway stage yet Mullins kept him wide with no cover and even after he took a big pull and dropped him back, he still never really tried to get cover.
At the fourth last Mullins asked his mount for a big jump but he didn’t oblige. After that, at the next two fences he was slow and it was just when Conflated made his race winning move. It looked like he’d finish out with the washing but he stayed on very nicely late on and in the end he was 6.75L behind the winner and just under 2L behind Kemboy in 2nd.
Promising Run
His seasonal bow at Gowran (20f gd) was also a promising run when again, he was ridden tenderly. This time Sean O’Keefe was in the plate and I think he could have finished a lot closer than the 3.75L he was beaten by Easy Game. His jockey never really got serious with him and he was again within touching distance of Kemboy who finished 2nd.
Mullins has kept him in G1/G2 company since that run. He ran just okay on bottomless ground in France on his two starts post Gowran but he is more effective on soft or better, as he demonstrated at Leopardstown. He’s a G1 Novice Chase winner at 17f so he has speed and I think that he is one of those horses that will win a massive race when everything drops right for him.
Strong Pace Might Suit
An end to end gallop should help him to settle better and if his jumping holds up, I can see him finishing well off a strong pace. He’s been strong in the betting (10/1 & 8/1) for both previous visits to the Festival so Mullins must think the place will suit him and to be fair, 17f against a Prime Shishkin was a big ask on his last trip to Cheltenham.
Last season the first time this horse tried was in the Thyestes (25f sft). He ran a massive race to finish 2nd, beat 0.75L off 154. He is now rated 157 and it wouldn’t surprise me if he ran in it again later this month, this time under a 7lb claimer. Mullins has used the race as a prep for his Gold Cup hopes in the past (Djakadam won it and was then placed in the main event) and if he went one better in it this year, his price for the big one will surely tighten up.
Franco De Port beat Conflated a distance when they met in a G1 Novice at Fairyhouse back in 2021 so it is now 1-1 in the H2H between the two of them. The Elliott horse is around 12/1, Franco De Port can be backed non-runner no bet at 66/1 with a couple of firms. Mullins might not even run him in this but if he does go elsewhere, at least we get our stake back. If he does run in the 2023 Cheltenham Gold Cup and the ground is soft or better, hopefully we can nick some place money.
