2023 Kempton and Warwick Saturday Tips – DS
2023 Kempton and Warwick Saturday Tips
Last Sunday our selection Imagine was a non runner at Naas. In the end it was the well backed Champ Kiely who made all in pretty impressive fashion, landing a few bets in the process. There wasn’t quite as much rain as I had anticipated and he handled the conditions well. Of the seven live ITV races on Saturday, only three have more than seven runners. It is a tricky time of year for punting in any case and small fields make things even harder. We’ll do our best to try and find a bit of e/w value, get Dave Stevos’ 2023 Kempton and Warwick Saturday tips below.
1.30 Kempton – Handicap Chase (Class 2)
The ground is currently soft at Kempton but with 15mm forecast overnight, it will surely be heavy. The fav, Tile Tapper, has won on heavy, off 116 at Chepstow (19f) just under a year ago. He has shaped well on both his runs since off his revised mark of 124/25, finishing runner up in decent races at Exeter (19f) and Kempton. This ground could be just what he needs to get back to winning ways and he looks to be a worthy favourite.
Annsam is a horse I rate extremely highly but heavy would be a worry. The son of Black Sam Bellamy has won on soft and he has gone well around here in the past, however, it was good to soft for his signature win at Ascot in December 2021 and it was similar ground for his last win at Newbury. He can be keen and headstrong so you’d have to worry about him seeing out the trip on this ground.
Enrilo has been pulled on account of heavy before so he doesn’t make any appeal. Smarty Wild handles heavy and has plenty of course form but the bookies haven’t missed him. Percussion ran a cracker for us in the Becher but again, the ground is a big concern. Only Belargus makes any appeal at big odds but he looked a suspect stayer over 23f on heavy at Chepstow. Smarty Wild probably represents the best value of the fancied ones but he’s too short for the blog. No bet.
2023 Kempton and Warwick Saturday Tips: No Bet
1.50 Warwick – Hampton Novices’ Chase (Grade 2)
It’s going to be attritional ground at Warwick on Saturday. It’s currently heavy, soft in places and there is more rain forecast in the morning. Complete Unknown will be fine on the ground but does he stay 24f? The furthest he’s won over is 21f and he weakened over this trip when well beat at Haydock (24f sft) back in November.
The Skelton horse Galia Des Liteaux won easy on heavy at Bangor (17f) before pulling up after jumping badly at Kempton over 3 miles. She too weakened on her sole start at 24f. Gordon Elliott’s horse would probably prefer nicer ground too. Gentleman At Arms has failed to reproduce last season’s smart form so far but he has won on heavy and he ran a blinder over 24f at Aintree last April. If this wasn’t a win only race, I’d probably chance him at around 12/1. Only four run though so we’ll keep the powder dry again. No bet.
2023 Kempton and Warwick Saturday Tips: no bet
2.05 Kempton – Silviniaco Conti Chase (Grade 2)
Pic D’Orhy’s best recent form is all on much better ground than today’s. However, if you look back through his form he has had four runs on heavy with one win and a head defeat over timber at Taunton off 150. He handles the ground and Paul Nicholls will be very keen to win the race named after one of his former stable superstars.
Nicholls also runs Saint Calvados, now owned and ridden by David Maxwell. He has been a very frustrating horse who finally got back to winning ways after a near three year drought at Sandown in April 2022. This ground (3/5 on heavy) will suit much better than the good ground he got last time out when he was well beat by Coole Cody. If even 80% of his ability remains, he should be turning that form around back on this softer surface.
Ground Concerns
Paint The Dream is the biggest threat to the fav according to the bookies. He enjoys a bit of cut but whether this ground will suit is another matter. He’s won a handicap on soft off 147 but most of his best efforts have arguably come on good to soft or better. Angels Breath will relish the conditions but too much has to be taken on trust after a mammoth layoff. Clondaw Castle is also back from a 400+ day break. If you put a gun to my head I’d probably back Saint Calvados but unfortunately, he is another one that’s too short for the blog. No bet.
2023 Kempton and Warwick Saturday Tips: No bet
2.25 Warwick – Leamington Novices’ Hurdle (grade 2)
This is an intriguing contest. Tom Lacey’s last time out C&D winner, Ginny’s Destiny, is the narrow fav at around 7/2. That win came on soft, his bumper win came on good so it’ll be interesting to see how the son of Yeats handles heavy. Mexico chased him home but there was a big gap between them and it is hard to make a case for him reversing that form. His main hope is that he handles heavy and the Lacey horse doesn’t.
Grey Dawning is by top NH sire Flemensfirth, as is Knowsley Road. The former has won 4/5, including wins on soft (16f & 21f) and heavy (16f). Harry Skelton landed a handicap at Kempton on him last time off 123, this will clearly be a lot harder. Knowsley Road is 3/3 on good to soft and 0/2 on heavy. In fairness to him, he did run well on both those heavy ground starts so he does handle it. However, that form is miles off what he has achieved in recent runs and he’s arguably best watched here.
Well Bred
The best bred horse in the race is Givega. By Authorized, his dam is a half sister to the mighty Quevega. He is 2/2 under rules and 3/3 if you include his P2P win. A 13L Lingfield (16f sft) win in a novice hurdle on debut was followed by another 5L win at Fontwell (17f gd/sft) and on pedigree, he should handle the conditions. He has already won a P2P so he should improve for this 21f trip and he is a fascinating runner.
Snake Roll has won both starts on ground with good in the description. On soft or worse he is 0/4, beat 31L, 48L, 2L and 5.75L. The son of Jetaway is best watched on this ground. Moon Hunter is another one with it to prove on slow ground.
So, that leaves Mexico. It is hard to see him turning that form with the fav around but unlike many of his rivals, he is at least proven on heavy. I was going to leave this race alone but quite a few firms are paying 3 places and there is enough juice in Mexico’s odds to warrant an e/w interest at 16/1.
2023 Kempton and Warwick Saturday Tips: Mexico e/w @ 16/1 (3 places) NB
2.40 Kempton – Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)
If he is fit and fully ready to go on his seasonal comeback, Up For Parol can outrun his odds of 28/1. Jamie Snowden is having a fine season and he is well able to ready one first time up. This son of Flemensfirth was a decent 6th in this last year, though with a better trip, he might have finished even closer than the 8L he was beaten by Cobblers Dream.
That effort came off a mark of 133 and he is back for a repeat bid off 4lbs lower. He is now just 2lbs higher than he was when winning a decent handicap hurdle at Haydock (19f sft) just five runs ago. I’d imagine his trainer has targeted this race given how well he ran in it last year and he’ll be absolutely ecstatic with the rain that is forecast. This lad loves soft ground and he absolutely hacked up in a P2P on his sole start on heavy, beating a couple of subsequent rules winners by nearly 20 lengths.
This fella had excuses for his last two runs of 2022 (ground and inadequate trip). He has no such excuses this time. The obvious concern is that he’ll need the run and without inside information, it is impossible to know how fit Snowden has him. Given the size of the pot on offer, hopefully he has him piping fit and if he does, Up For Parol can run into the money at least at odds of 28/1.
2023 Kempton and Warwick Saturday Tips: Up For Parol e/w @ 25/1 (6 places) NAP
3.00 Warwick – Classic Handicap Chase (Premier)
Gail Haywood is a trainer I always keep an eye on. She isn’t well known but she has a knack of landing winners at insane prices. The bookies always overlook her horses and they are doing so again with Grand Mogul. Formerly trained by Nicky Henderson, he lost his form last season. A bumper winner in Ireland, he landed a Chepstow Novice for Henderson in October 2020 (19f sft) and at the end of that season he scored in a novice handicap chase off 128 (23.5f gd).
This lad has had one start so far on heavy and it was over 2 miles at Sandown. He finished 2nd, beat 9L, so while it wasn’t a brilliant run it wasn’t awful either. Haywood snapped him up for £11k at the sales and he had his first run for the yard in the Welsh National trial at Chepstow (23.5f gd/sft). Grand Mogul ran a very nice race on his first start for months, finishing 3rd of 10, beat 11L behind Farinet.
Ben Poste is 1/18 with 6 places for the yard and he retains the ride. Both of Grand Mogul’s UK wins have come going left handed and his dam is a half sister to Thunder And Roses, a winner over today’s trip of 29f. There is a chance he might prefer better ground than this over this distance but at odds of 28/1, it is worth taking the risk for small stakes.
2023 Kempton and Warwick Saturday Tips: Grand Mogul e/w @ 28/1 (4 places)
3.35 Warwick – Pertemps Qualifier Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)
The last live race of the day on ITV4 is this Pertemps Qualifier. Unfortunately only seven will run and I can’t make a case for anything at massive odds. Lieutenant Rocco has won on heavy but we have already backed him this season and he was bitterly disappointing, just like he was five days ago at Taunton. Level Neverending would prefer nicer ground and On The Blind Side is equally hard to fancy. I’d imagine Ronald Pump will be thereabouts but I’d guess he will be aiming to qualify rather than win off a mark of 145. Another no bet race.
