2023 Leopardstown DRF Sunday Preview & Tips – DS
2023 Leopardstown DRF Sunday Preview and Tips
What a nightmare we had on Saturday. Deep Cave was narrowly edged out of the places but apart from that, it was a complete shitshow from start to finish. I’m not going to dwell on such a poor day and hopefully, we can get back on track at Leopardstown this afternoon. Dave Stevos’ 2023 Leopardstown DRF Sunday preview is below.
1.10 – Mares Handicap Hurdle (Grade B)
Usually, I steer well clear of handicap debutants due to them lacking experience but Michael Grassick’s mare, Mollys Glory, has loads. She has had eight runs over hurdles and she also ran seven times in bumpers. On her last maiden hurdle run at Thurles she went down by 0.5L to Belle The Lioness. She was carrying 5lbs less but even so, the winner had previous placed form in Listed company behind Liberty Dance, finishing 5L behind her off level weights.
Today, Liberty Dance is the market leader at 11/4 off a mark of 129. With Michael O’Sullivan’s claim Mollys Glory is effectively in off 104 and she’ll be getting 25lbs from the jolly. Interestingly, Grassick’s mare finished 1.25L behind Party Central in a Listed bumper at Fairyhouse off levels back in April 2021. She won this race last season off 121 and Mollys Glory is effectively 17lbs lower. My confidence has taken a blow after Saturday but hopefully this mare gets us off to a flyer at 25/1.
Ground Ideal
At even bigger odds, Scenic Look is another very interesting contender. I was afraid the rain yesterday would scupper her chances but it’s good to yielding today and that should be perfect. Adrian Murray’s daughter of Workforce ran a nice race on her handicap debut at Navan when the 22f trip was probably too far. She still managed to finish 5th, 12L behind the then rated 103 Maxxum. He is now rated 138.
The assessor left Scenic Look’s mark alone following that Navan run and Murray put her away for a couple of months, presumably to wait for Spring ground. He gave her a spin on the flat at Dundalk a couple of weeks ago and that should have her spot on. Dillon Maxwell claims 7lbs and at odds of 33/1, hopefully he can steer Scenic Look into the first six.
2023 Leopardstown DRF Sunday Tips: Mollys Glory e/w @ 20/1 NAP; Scenic Look e/w @ 33/1 (both 6 Places).
1.40 – Novice Chase (Grade 1)
It is hard to get too enthusiastic about this race. Just six run and five are trained by Willie Mullins. Gordon Elliott is the only other trainer with a runner and Mighty Potter is the 5/4 fav. He has won both chase starts to date and he handles all sorts of ground. He had Gaillard Du Mensil 4.5L behind him last time at Fairyhouse and it wouldn’t be the biggest surprise to see a similar outcome here.
James Du Berlais is the only other horse at single figure odds and he impressed in a weak Fairyhouse chase last time. He has placed G1 form over hurdles and he looks the most likely to threaten the top two. Kilcruit is talented but unreliable and the other two have lots to find. A race I am more than happy to swerve. No bet.
2023 Leopardstown DRF Sunday Tips: No Bet
2.10 – Dublin Chase (Grade 1)
Another race with a low turnout and a long odds on fav in the form of Blue Lord. He has been in super form so far this year. A neck defeat of Tornado Flyer at Clonmel (20.5f hvy) was followed by an 11L victory ahead of Captain Guinness at this track (17f yld) and he now has won six of his seven starts over fences. His sole defeat came at last year’s Cheltenham Festival behind Edwardstone and Gabynako.
Gentleman Du Mee is next best in the betting but he’s had a disastrous season. An unseat at Naas was followed by comprehensive defeats at Sandown and Leopardstown and it is hard to know what to expect now. Sceau Royal could be the one to chase the jolly home but this is another no bet race.
2023 Leopardstown DRF Sunday Tips: No Bet
2.40 – Leopardstown Handicap Chase (Grade A)
A big field (for a change) of 23 runners and it looks wide open. We backed Take All last time out and he ran a nice race without getting into the money. His owner has since taken him out of Seamus Fahey’s and he is now trained by the Shark. Jody McGarvey takes over in the plate and it’ll be very interesting to see how he gets on for his new yard. The way he travelled last time suggests this drop back in trip might suit but I’m going to take a chance on one at much bigger odds.
C&D Form
I was tempted to put Charlie Stout up when he ran over C&D at Xmas. I lived to regret the decision not to tip him as he ran on late for a place to finish 4th off 118. Yes, he was beaten 21L for the win but it was a decent second of the season and he improved on it next time at Thurles (21f yld). In that race he finished a good 2nd, 12L behind Stumptown and 19L clear of the 3rd.
Now, obviously it isn’t all good news as his odds of 66/1 suggest. He is a 12yo now, so he isn’t getting any younger and he also has to race off 122, 6lbs higher than his actual mark. However, Mikey O’Connor’s 5lbs claim means he is effectively only 1lb wrong and racing off 117.
At this meeting in 2020 Charlie Stout ran a cracker in the Matheson (17f yld), beaten just 2.75L off 136. Now, a lot of water has passed under the bridge since then but he is racing off a 19lbs lower today and I think his three runs this season have demonstrated that he does at least retain some of that old ability. At odds of 50/1, hopefully the old boy can run on late for a place.
2023 Leopardstown DRF Sunday Tips: Charlie Stout e/w @ 50/1 (6 Places)
3.10 – Irish Champion Hurdle (Grade 1)
Yet another small field but it should be an interesting race. Will Honeysuckle retain her crown? I thought the reaction to her last run was a bit over the top. It was obviously disappointing that she lost her flawless record but it wasn’t that bad a seasonal return for a horse that isn’t getting any younger. I’d expect her to be a lot sharper today and it’ll be fascinating to see how she gets on against the new kids on the block, Vauban and State Man.
State Man is on a five race winning streak and he has beaten Sharjah and Vauban on his last two starts. The 2022 County Hurdle winner is an exciting prospect and he is the pick of Paul Townend. Danny Mullins rides Vauban and he is another interesting contender. He landed the Triumph back in March and he is entitled to strip fitter for his comeback behind State Man. It looks between the top three and if a gun was put to my head, I’d probably back Vauban. Odds of 4/1 do not appeal though and I’ll keep the powder dry again. No bet.
2023 Leopardstown DRF Sunday Tips: No Bet
3.40 – Novice Hurdle (Grade 1)
Just the seven run here but at least they aren’t all trained by Willie. Facile Vega is his main hope of three and he is bidding to maintain a six race unbeaten record. Three of those have been G1s but he wasn’t that impressive here last time when beating Il Etait Temps by 4L. It was workmanlike rather than spectacular and in this tougher race, he’ll need to be better than that.
High Definition was a high class flat horse for Aidan O’Brien and he made a taking hurdles debut for Joseph. In that maiden hurdle here over Xmas he beat Jetara by 4.25L and she has since placed in G3 company. Diverge was miles back in 6th and he was a wide margin winner at Punchestown this week so there is a bit of substance to the form. The soft ground should pose no problems for this lad and he is an intriguing runner.
Unbeaten
Inthepocket is also undefeated after two runs under rules (and one in a P2P). A 6yo son of Blue Bresil, he landed a Wexford maiden on heavy in October before following up in G2 company at Naas (20f sft). The runner up has since won a Novice and Absolute Notions, who was 5L back in 3rd, ran a massive race here on Saturday. The worry is whether this drop back to 16f might count against him.
Dark Raven is another one who has yet to taste defeat. He has landed two bumpers, one here, and also a C&D maiden on St Stephen’s Day. Doctor Bravo franked that form by beating The Big Doyen in a maiden next time, solid form. Il Etait Temps is Mullins’ third runner and he chased Facile Vega home here last time. He has 3L to find with his stablemate but he had no excuses and he is likely to be reeled in late on again.
Irish Point has finished 2nd the last twice behind some decent sorts. At Fairyhouse he went down by a head to Supreme hope Marine Nationale and then over 20f last time, Champ Kiely had his measure. Dropping back in distance should suit the son of Joshua Tree and he is no forlorn hope at odds of 12/1.
Tough Task
No Looking Back beat Brazil in a match on bottomless ground at Limerick last time. Oliver McKiernan’s son of Kingston Hill is a lovely horse, I just think he might need softer ground than today’s to show his best. It could be a tough task for him today. With just seven runners this is a race I’ll give a wide berth to. No bet.
2023 Leopardstown DRF Sunday Tips: No Bet
4.10 – Handicap Hurdle (Grade B)
At odds of 20/1, I had selected Fortunedefortunata as my NB today but as I was doing the write up, his price collapsed. Now into single figure odds, he is too short for the blog but if you are considering backing him, I wouldn’t put you off. Instead, I am going to take a chance on Nibiru for Tony Martin and Philip Enright.
This 8yo has won twice already this season, at Navan (16f gd) and a valuable race at Down Royal off 117 (17f sft). If you look at the times, it wasn’t actually that soft the day he won at Down Royal and he is a horse that likes yielding or better. His last two runs came on much softer ground than today’s, here over 16f and also over that distance at Fairyhouse. That Leopardstown Xmas run wasn’t too bad and it was the third time he has run well at this track.
The handicapper has dropped him back to 122 so he is only 5lbs higher than when winning at Down Royal. The return to better ground here is a big plus and so is the return of Enright in the saddle. The horse he beat into 3rd at Down Royal, Pinkerton (off 130), went close in a big Fairyhouse handicap off 3lbs higher next time out and is now rated 136. His form figures on good to yielding read 3351, hopefully Nibiru can add a similar number to that sequence today.
