2023 Stayers Hurdle Stats That Matter – DS
2023 Stayers Hurdle Stats That Matter
In 2022 the stats managed to uncover Commander Of Fleet but unfortunately, he went and won the Coral Cup instead. Like with our Gold Cup stats preview, Dave Stevos has slightly changed his approach this year. The 2023 Stayers Hurdle stats will still have the final say, hopefully this time we can find the winner.
Age
The first statistic we’ll use to narrow the field is age. The last horse aged older than 9yo to win this race was Crimson Embers back in 1986. He was an 11yo and no 10yo has ever managed to win. It breaks my heart but it means that the old boy Paisley Park is discounted at this stage. Emma Lavelle’s stable star ran a cracker in this last year to finish third and even though I think he could run into the places again, the stats say no.
Another former festival winner in Summerville Boy is also counted out at this point, as is Sire Du Berlais, another 11yo. Dashel Drasher, a horse I love, also comes a cropper as he is a 10yo now. Indefatigable loves Cheltenham but she is ruled out, as are both Sharjah and Chacun Pour Soi, two unlikely runners in any case.
CUT: Paisley Park; Summerville Boy; Sire Du Berlais; Dashel Drasher; Indefatigable; Sharjah; Chacun Pour Soi.
Previous Course Form
Over hurdles, course form probably isn’t quite as important as it is for chases. However, in this particular race, since 2009 all but one of the winners had run at least once at Cheltenham and eight of those had previously won at the track. For the purposes of this piece, we will now eliminate any horse which has either never run here before, or any horse that has failed to place at Cheltenham.
Beacon Edge was 4th in this two years ago but he was well beat in the Gold Cup in 2022 and even though he showed more last time, he fails to make it past this stage. Hewick is more likely to pitch up in the Gold Cup but if he does run here his lack of course form counts against him.
The enigmatic Goshen fell when the Triumph was at his mercy in 2020 and he has flopped on two subsequent course runs so he is a goner too. Buzz is also discounted due to a dearth of course form. Last year’s sixth Home By The Lee and Teahupoo are both near the head of the market but on what they have produced at this track in the past, they are the two highest profile casualties so far.
CUT: Beacon Edge; Hewick; Goshen; Buzz; Teahupoo; Home By The Lee.
Class
To be a Stayers’ Hurdle winner a horse needs to have previously shown form at either Grade 2 or Grade 1 level. Of the last thirteen winners, a dozen had already won a G1 or G2. This enables us to whittle the field down even more.
Langer Dan has plenty of good handicap form but that is unlikely to suffice here. Saint Sam, who would want rain, is another outsider to falter, as is his stablemate Haut En Couleurs. So, that is sixteen horses that we have now counted out, we’ll next try and narrow the field further using recent form.
CUT: Langer Dan; Saint Sam; Haut En Couleurs.
Recent Form
Last season I discounted any horse that didn’t win during the season before the Stayers Hurdle. This eliminated two of the first three home, so we are going to change it up a bit. Instead of eliminating horses that haven’t won, we’ll instead count out horses that haven’t run within 80 days (10 of last 12 winners ticked this box) and also any horse that has failed to place this season.
So, this means it is the end of the road for Zanahiyr, unplaced on all three runs this term. Asterion Forlonge hasn’t run at all this season so he is cut, as is the dual former winner Flooring Porter, only 4th in both of his outings during this campaign. Klassical Dream ran well last time out but it will be 102 days since that run on raceday so the 14/1 shot is another faller at this hurdle.
CUT: Zanahiyr; Asterion Forlonge; Flooring Porter; Klassical Dream.
2023 stayers hurdle stats: THE VERDICT
We have five horses left standing and one of those, Sir Gerhard, is an unlikely runner. He’s single figure odds for both the Brown Advisory and the Turners so he will probably run in one of those two races. The biggest priced survivor is Botox Has. Gary Moore’s charge is 100/1 after back to back below par runs at Grade 2 level at this track.
Maybe the ground was a shade too soft for him because otherwise, his Cheltenham form is pretty solid. Excluding those last two runs, his course form reads 211P8232 so he clearly likes it here. His rating of 150 puts him right in the mix with the likes of Ashdale Bob and Maries Rock and if he happened to be on a going day in March, he could outrun his odds.
Will Rock Run?
Marie’s Rock is also entered in the Mares’ Hurdle, for which she is a 4/1 shot. She is 8/1 for the Stayers Hurdle and connections have yet to commit to either race. She has won at 21f but Nicky Henderson’s mare has never raced beyond that distance.
Most of her relations were best at 16f but her dam is related to one 24f winner and on run style, it looks like the trip won’t pose a problem. If Honeysuckle wasn’t running in the Mares’, I’d imagine Marie’s Rock would have run in that but if she does decide to come here, the stats say she has every chance of hitting the frame.
Bob No Back Number
He isn’t the easiest to win with but Ashdale Bob is an admirably consistent horse and he ticks a lot of the required boxes. Jessie Harrington’s charge is the right age, he ran a cracker behind Home By The Lee at Leopardstown last time and he has placed festival form in the book. He has finished runner up on his last two runs in G1 company at this distance and at odds of 14/1, he looks a very tempting each way candidate.
Blazing Khal booked his ticket to Cheltenham at Navan on Sunday (21f gd). A dual Cheltenham winner, including at this distance, he missed last season’s race due to injury. There is no doubt he was visually impressive at Navan, but what did the 7yo actually beat?
Too Short
He finished 3L in front of Meet And Greet, a horse that previously finished 3.5L behind Home By The Lee and 0.5L behind Ashdale Bob. Yes, it is ok form but does it justify his current odds of just 5/2? It does look a weaker renewal this season, especially with some of the race regulars getting on a bit, but 5/2?
The form of his two course wins doesn’t look that spectacular now and there is always the risk of the dreaded bounce factor on his second run of the season given the length of his absence from the track. Those odds look a shade too short for my liking.
Bob and Botox The Value
If I was having an ante-post bet on this race now, my e/w money would be going on Ashdale Bob at 14/1 and I’d also have a little nibble at Botox Has at silly odds. Marie’s Rock would be an intriguing runner if she did pitch up here but given that she is unproven at the distance, she doesn’t make any appeal as an e/w betting proposition at her current odds of around 8/1.
Blazing Khal is obviously a nice horse and clearly a very talented one. He has winning C&D form, he won well on his return from a long break and he looks sure to run a big race for a trainer that won this race with Solwhit in 2013. Of the horses that remain, he does look the most likely winner but from a betting perspective, odds of 5/2 are a bit too skinny.
2023 Stayers Hurdle Stats Prediction
- Blazing Khal @ 5/2
- Ashdale Bob @ 14/1 (back e/w)
- Botox Has @ 100/1 (back half stakes e/w)
- Marie’s Rock @ 8/1
