2023 Ascot and Haydock Saturday Tips

We had to make do with a solitary place at Navan last weekend. Banjaxed did his best but he found the odds on favourite too good. Glorious Singer was ridden more positively than usual and the tactics didn’t work. Aaron’s Day ran well to a point but in the end, he was outclassed. Dave Stevos is back on the hunt for more big priced winners (or places) this weekend, check out his 2023 Ascot and Haydock Saturday tips below.

1.50 Ascot – Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase (Grade 2)

A Grade 2 Chase for the novices that does not set the punting pulse racing. Just four run and the ground is described as good at Ascot with no rain forecast. On paper, the favourite Bold Endeavour should win. He’s rated 8lbs higher than his closest rival and he’s landed handicaps off 130 and 139 on nice ground the last twice. The bookies are taking no chances with him though and he is odds on.

Kinondo Kwetu could be the biggest danger. Trained by Sam England and ridden by Jonathan, on pedigree this horse should be effective at 7f to 8f on the flat but he has developed into a prolific staying chase handicapper. Since he won a Novice at Stratford (22f gd) his form has taken off.

Winning Habit

England sent him chasing on his next start at Market Rasen (24f gd) and after winning that off 107, he added another three wins off 117, 124 and last time off 132. The form isn’t that strong but he knows how to win and it’ll be very interesting to see how he fares.

Jay Jay Reilly is in decent form too and given how Skelton horses usually run on Saturdays, you couldn’t completely discount him. Oscar Elite is a good horse on his day but unfortunately, those days have become few and far between. With no each way betting this is a race I’m happy to swerve. No bet.

2023 Ascot and Haydock Saturday tips: No Bet

2.05 Haydock – Rendlesham Hurdle (Grade 2)

Another small field, a recurring theme in recent months. The ground is currently good to soft but with a decent spill of rain forecast for early on Saturday, it might just ease slightly. Seven were declared for this contest but with Elvis Mail running on Friday, that is highly likely to be reduced to six.

Erne River is the 5/2 jolly for Kent and Hammond and he has been running well in defeat. He was 11L behind Hitman on his penultimate start and then he went close at Doncaster off 140 in handicap company last time. However, the fact he’s had a wind op since is slightly off putting.

Sandown Return

Since his Sandown win in February 2022, it looked like Green Book had lost his form. To be fair, he was highly tried on his next three starts but there was little encouragement to be taken from his seasonal return back in handicap company at Chepstow. However, the return to Sandown worked the oracle and he hacked up there last time out, beating Call Me Lord by 3L.

Now, Williams sends him back into Graded company and he has to concede 4lbs to all his rivals. Given how his form nosedived in similar company last season, he is probably one to treat with caution. Ashdown Lad has already run ok at this level when 3rd behind Ahoy Senor in a G2 Novice. He was 5th off 140 in last year’s Scottish National and he’s a better chaser than hurdler. He’s entered at Aintree in April and this race is surely not the be all and end all for him.

Every Chance

On ratings, Itchy Feet has every chance here, if at his best. Olly Murphy’s horses are in good form and this lad bounced back from some poor efforts at Huntingdon last time. He landed a 25f handicap off 138 at odds of 20/1 on good to soft ground and he was a G1 winner back in the day over fences but was his last run a once off? He hasn’t put back to back solid runs together since November 2021 and his record going left handed is relatively poor. Not one for maximum trust.

Having picked enough holes in the market leaders, I’ll have to take a chance on the rag. On the figures, Inis Oirr has to improve over a stone to even place here. However, unlike most of his rivals he is relatively unexposed, especially on half decent ground. On his last visit here in November he went down by a neck to Mr Vango in a maiden hurdle. He has an entry for the Albert Bartlett, as does the horse he was narrowly beaten by next time so it could be better form than it looked at the time.

Musselburgh Winner

The son of Ocovango flopped on his handicap debut at Kelso next time but the ground was bottomless. It was much nicer ground in a Class 2 Novice at Musselburgh last time and he finally got off the mark, beating Outlaw Peter by a nose. They were miles clear of the rest and the runner up was previously placed in a G2 Novice at Chepstow. I really like how he battled all the way to the line and he showed a similarly willing attitude in defeat at Haydock.

His trainer Lucinda Russell has her horses in fine fettle and her Haydock record is excellent. She has had 22 winners and 53 Top 4s from 128 runners and a pound win on all her runners generated a profit of £25.83. Derek Fox rides again and at odds of 66/1, hopefully he can sneak Inis Oirr into the first three (still a bet if only two places available on the day).

2023 Ascot and Haydock Saturday tips: Inis Oirr e/w @ 66/1 (3 places)

2.25 Ascot – Swinley Handicap Chase (Premier)

The Wolf has disappointed on his last couple of runs but he is now looking very nicely handicapped. However, I am hoping that the return to 24f and good ground might spark a revival. Olly Murphy’s charge ran a cracker when he last had proper nice ground, on his seasonal return at Cheltenham. He found just Lord Accord too good, beaten 4.5L off a mark of 138. After three below par efforts, he is now in off a rating of just 132.

This lad’s three wins have all come going left handed, with the last coming in October 2020. However, it is surprising that connections haven’t tried him going right handed more often. From four goes he’s finished 2nd twice, behind Fortescue off 135 and then 0.75L behind Captain Cattistock off 137. His overall form figures on good ground read 41222 so if he is going to bounce back to form, 24f on good ground at Ascot could be the ideal place. He isn’t one to be having the farm on but at 22/1, he is more than capable of at least placing off his current mark of 132 if is anywhere near his best.

2023 Ascot and Haydock Saturday tips: The Wolf e/w @ 22/1 (4 Places)

2.40 Haydock – Grand National Trial Handicap Chase (Premier)

In January of last year, Fortescue ran a blinder here in the Peter Marsh (25.5f sft) when a close 3rd behind Sam Brown and Royal Pagaille. He probably would have won if the race was a furlong further so today’s trip of 28f could be exactly what he needs. Henry Daly’s charge is an out and out stayer and he is in off his last winning mark. That win came in the Swinley at Ascot a year ago almost to the day (24f sft) but connections have probably decided to swerve a repeat bid on account of the fast ground.

The rain forecast here will aid his cause, though I don’t think he needs or wants it bottomless. Genuine, good to soft ground should be fine and while he snuck into last year’s Grand National as the 40th runner off 143, connections won’t want to be sweating on him getting in this season so you’d imagine he’ll be there to win today (but not by too far!). Henry Daly has had three winners in the past fortnight, which is a plus, and he has a decent record at Haydock (22/203 with 83 Top 4s). I’m convinced Fortescue has a big day in him, hopefully he can win this before going on to run huge at Aintree. At 16/1, he is the e/w selection.

2023 Ascot and Haydock Saturday tips: Fortescue e/w @ 16/1 (5 places) NAP

3.00 Ascot – Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)

With Ben Ffrench Davis claiming 7lbs, Thibault is effectively racing off 117 today. His last win, at Plumpton last May, came in a conditional jockey race when Davis couldn’t claim and that was off a mark of 122. So, off effectively 5lbs lower, surely he has serious place prospects today. We actually backed him in this race two years ago, when he drifted like a barge to 80/1 but still ran a massive race to nick 2nd off 124, finishing just 2L behind Shannon Bridge.  

Adam West is a shrewd operator and I’d imagine he’s been plotting a repeat bid in this contest for some time. Last year it was bottomless ground so that’s probably why he didn’t run but this year, the weather gods have played ball. He has had a couple of spins on the all weather to sharpen him up and this horse almost always seems to find his form when there is big prize money on offer. This is probably his Derby, Grand National and 2000 Guineas rolled into one and hopefully the 10yo can produce the goods. At odds of 22/1, Thibault is the e/w selection.

2023 Ascot and Haydock Saturday tips: Thibault e/w @ 22/1 (4 Places) NB

3.12 Wincanton – Kingwell Hurdle (Grade 2)

Four runners and it looks between the top three in the betting. Global Citizen would have a small chance on his second to Tommy’s Oscar but the ground may be on the quick side for him. A race I am more than happy to swerve. No bet.

Wincanton Saturday tips: No Bet

3.35 Ascot – Betfair Ascot Chase (Grade 1)

A penalty kick for Fakir D’oudairies? Probably, but he has bigger fish to fry in March. Joseph O’Brien’s charge landed a G2 at Thurles last time and he won this race before going on to score at Aintree last season. He swerved Cheltenham and Allaho last year but with him out of this year’s Ryanair, Fakir will surely head there next. Proper good ground is a worry but his class could see him through.

Shishkin is stepping up markedly in trip. Desperate situations require desperate measures I suppose, but he didn’t look like a stayer last time at Sandown. He’s had a wind op and he sports a tongue tie for the first time so clearly his wind has been blamed for his spectacular loss of form. 9/4 is an insanely short price for a 9yo 16f specialist who has lost his form stepping up 5f in trip and there is not chance I’d back him at those odds.

I’d give First Flow a decent chance of reversing Huntingdon form with Pic D’Orhy. He was probably in need of the run when 7.5L behind him last time at Huntingdon and I’d imagine this race has been the plan. Millers Bank split those two rivals at Huntingdon and he is another that could figure now returning to a more suitable trip. However, with Shishkin in here the race is too unpredictable so I’m happy to sit it out. No bet.

2023 Ascot and Haydock Saturday tips: No bet

-DaveStevos