2023 Champion Hurdle Stats That Matter – DS

by Dave Stevos | Feb 21, 2023

2023 Champion Hurdle Stats That Matter

We have already completed our stats based previews for the 2023 Gold Cup and Stayers Hurdle. This week, we have the 2023 Champion Hurdle Stats That Matter preview. You all know the drill by now, hopefully the trends are our friends this time.

Age

With just 14 left in the Champion Hurdle, it is going to be key that we use the correct stats as it isn’t going to take much to narrow the field. In the vast majority of races, age is pretty important and that is where we’ll start with the 2023 Champion Hurdle. Since 2000, there has been two 5yo winners, five 6yo winners, eight 7yo winners, five 8yo winners and just two 9yo winners. So, the sweet spot looks to be horses aged 6yo to 8yo (18 of the last 22 winners).

Honeysuckle is heading to the Mares’ Hurdle but even if she did run here, the stats are firmly against the 9yo retaining her crown. Former winner and runner up Epatante is also ruled out at this stage. We also lose a couple of rank outsiders, including last year’s 5th Not So Sleepy, twice placed Sharjah and also the mudlover Jason The Militant. The two 5yos that miss out are Pied Piper and the 10/1 third favourite Vauban.

CUT: Honeysuckle; Epatante; Sharjah; Jason The Militant; Pied Piper; Vauban; Not So Sleepy.

Recent Form

We have already discounted half of the remaining 14 runners in the 2023 Champion Hurdle. With just seven left, this next statistic will have to count. Usually, course form would come to the fore here but instead, we are going to use recent form. Looking back at every single winner since 2000, only one has managed to win this race without either winning or placing on their last run before the big race (Jezki in 2014).

So, that means we can wave goodbye to Zanahiyr who could only manage 5th of 5 last time out. First Street did manage to finish 3rd on his last run but unfortunately for him, it was only a four runner race. That leaves us with five potential winners, but two of those are likely to run in the Mares’ Hurdle.

CUT: Zanahiyr; First Street.

2023 Champion Hurdle: THE VERDICT

Both Echoes In Rain and Love Envoi made the final five but they are reportedly heading to the Mares’ Hurdle. So, that leaves us with just three remaining contenders. Favourite backers will be pleased that Constitution Hill has made the final cut. Nicky Henderson’s charge has had five runs under rules since making his debut in December 2021, winning them all doing handstands.

He landed a Novice at Sandown by 14L on his debut and he subsequently won four G1s in a row by a combined distance of 63 lengths. Epatante, a standing dish in the Champion Hurdle, took him on the last twice and she was beaten 12L at Newcastle and 17L at Kempton. The 6yo son of Blue Bresil has looked an absolute machine so far and the stats are stacked in his favour. If he stands up, he should win.

Biggest Threat

On paper, there is no doubt that the biggest threat is State Man. Willie Mullins took advantage of this 6yo’s lenient handicap mark of 141 in the County Hurdle last season. After he landed that race, he was stepped up in Grade at Punchestown and he took care of business, beating Flame Bearer by 7L.

On his reappearance at the same track the son of Doctor Dino landed another G1, beating Sharjah by 4L. Two more Leopardstown G1s followed, a 4L win over Vauban at Xmas and then a 4.75L defeat of Honeysuckle at the Dublin Racing Festival. On a line through Epatante, that won’t be good enough form to beat Constitution Hill but he could still be improving and it’ll be fascinating to see if he can give the Henderson horse a proper race.

Each Way Value

The only other horse to make it this far is I Like To Move It. Trained by Nigel Twiston Davies, this 6yo hacked up in a Wincanton G2 last weekend. He was well back in the County Hurdle won by State Man last season but the ground may have been just a tad slow for him. When he has had genuine, good ground this horse has yet to taste defeat. He is 4/4 on proper good ground, including three wins over C&D.

Obviously, it is a worry that he hasn’t produced his best in two previous Festival runs. However, as I stated previously the ground was possibly too soft last year and he came into it on the back of a hard race in the Betfair Hurdle. This time his prep run was a lot easier and if he gets the ground he relishes in March, he could be the one to reward e/w players at nice odds. It is hard to see past a Constitution Hill win though, with State Man the most likely to chase him home.

2023 Champion Hurdle Stats That Matter – DS