2023 Night 4 Premier League of Darts Preview – JP
2023 Night 4 Premier League Darts Preview
Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2023 Night 4 Premier League of Darts preview. Last week we had three winners from four bets and are showing a 1.55 point profit over the first three nights. Given my record with the Premier League, that is a triumph. Hopefully more of the same this week, but caution remains the best policy.
Tonight’s action comes from Dublin, so no home crowd advantage this week. Michael Smith won night 3 and now tops the table. Jonny Clayton picked up his first points last week and that just leaves Peter Wright as the only player yet to register a win.
Michael Smith vs. Peter Wright
Top of the table vs. bottom of the table and not an easy task for Wright to get his first points. Michael Smith took the weekend off and didn’t play in the two Players Championships. He has won eight of his last ten matches and averaged 109 last week’s final, beating Van den Bergh 6-4.
Peter Wright has only won 56% of his matches in 2023. It is early days but that is 7% down on his 2022 win rate, which in turn was 7% down on 2021, which was 7% down on 2020. He is scoring well but finding winning hard, losing six of his last ten matches.
Not Doing Much Wrong
In those ten matches he has hit four ton plus averages and nine 95+ averages so there is little wrong with his game. His last two matches saw him checking out at 25% and 28% and he lost both. His PL checkout rate is 32%, the lowest of the eight players, but his average is 99.6, which is bettered only by Michael van Gerwen.
Their H2H record shows a 29-14 lead for Snakebite and in last year’s PL they met twice with Wright winning both, 6-3 and 6-2.
Smith is the 1.67 favourite with Wright 2.25. Those odds look about right. Wright has hit 9 maximums at 0.32 per leg so far, while the normally prodigious Smith has hit 14, but only at 0.24 per leg. Wright hit the most 180s in both their PL matches last year and there might be a bit of value in his odds of 2.80 to hit the most, but Smith could kick off at any time. No bet.
2023 Night 4 Premier League of Darts Tip: No Bet
Gerwyn Price vs. Dimitri van den Bergh
Price made the most of home crowd advantage in Cardiff two weeks ago to win the night and join the three other players on 5 points. He has lost his other two quarter final matches 6-4 and 6-3. It should be normal service this week with a hostile crowd. Price has won seven of his last ten matches and he reached the semi-final of PC3 at the weekend.
Van den Bergh was runner up last week. He played well and had a 105.7 average when beating Aspinall 6-1 in the semi-final. He has won six of his last ten matches and he put in some decent performances in PC4 on Sunday, reaching the 4th round.
Price Odds On
Their H2H record is 10-5 to Gerwyn Price and he is the 1.62 favourite with Dimitri 2.50. They have only met five times in the last three years, which is a surprise.
Van den Bergh has been very good on his doubles in this PL so far. A 50% checkout rate is bettered only by Jonny Clayton. He is also hitting more maximums at a rate of 0.32 compared to Price’s 0.22. That is reflected in Dimitri being the 2.00 favourite to hit the most 180s.
Price is always worth considering as a player to oppose in the PL. He is the pantomime villain and getting abuse makes things harder for him. However, he does have a decent record in Dublin having played four, won two and drawn two, so maybe the Irish are a little kinder to him than the English.
Van den Bergh has played the better darts so far and there is a bit of value in his odds of 2.50, but not quite enough.
2023 Night 4 Premier League of Darts Tip: No Bet
Jonny Clayton vs. Nathan Aspinall
The Ferret got his first win last week and he does seem to be hitting some very good form. He has won seven of his last ten matches, hit six ton plus averages and all but one over 98. His doubling in the PL has been good and at 53.6%, his checkout rate is the best in the league.
The Asp has won five of his last ten and won all three of his quarter final matches in the PL so far. He lacks the consistency of Clayton right now.
Clayton is the 1.80 favourite, Aspinall 2.10. I have been impressed with Clayton in the last week or two. He is beginning to look like his old self, and he does like the PL.
2023 Night 4 Premier League of Darts Tip: 1 point Jonny Clayton to win @ 1.80 with SpreadEx
Chris Dobey vs. Michael van Gerwen
After winning the opening night in Belfast, Dobey lost his next two quarter finals. He hasn’t played badly, just got beaten by the better player. His 101 average was only good enough for a 1-6 thrashing by Jonny Clayton last week. Welcome to the Premier League. Dobey has won six of his last ten matches and he is playing pretty well.
MVG is looking out of sorts again. His confidence remains fragile and his win rate so far in 2023 is just 53%. He took the weekend off and missed the two Players Championships. Maybe he could have done with the practice as he has lost five of his last ten matches. One of those defeats was a 5-6 loss to Chris Dobey in the final in Belfast.
Close Match On Cards?
Their H2H record is 12-2 to MVG but perhaps of more importance is that Dobey has won two of their last three matches. He did get a 0-5 thrashing in the World Championship, but that was a quarter final and Dobey was getting a bit of a nosebleed after getting that far. His two wins were both 6-5 and in total they have played eleven best of 11 leg matches and nine went over 9.5 legs. Indeed, seven went to a deciding leg.
MVG is an unbackable 1.33 favourite, Dobey 3.50.
2023 Night 4 Premier League of Darts Tip: 1 point over 9.5 legs @ 2.30 with Betfred
2023 Night 4 Premier League of Darts Tip: 0.5 Chris Dobey to win 6-5 @ 10.00 with Betfred, Hills, Betfair
I will have one final bet for night four and a rare venture into the who will win the night market. The Ferret looks ready to get his first 5 pointer and his odds are good enough.
