2023 Champion Chase Stats That Matter – DS
2023 Champion Chase Stats That Matter
We have already completed our stats based previews for the Champion Hurdle, Gold Cup and Stayers Hurdle. This week, we have our final instalment of this series of Cheltenham previews, the 2023 Champion Chase Stats That Matter. Let’s hope the statistics point us in the right direction.
Cheltenham Form
Usually, age is where we start with these stats based previews. However, bar the 11yo Chacun Pour Soi, the rest of the runners are all an ideal age for this race. The vast majority of winners since 2000 have been aged between 7yo and 9yo (16/22), the age bracket that ten of the eleven contenders fall into. So, instead, we are going to discount horses who have no previous course form and also those horses that have failed to finish in the first two when previously running at Cheltenham.
Since 2000, 18 of the 22 winners have ticked this particular box. So, that means we can eliminate Chacun Pour Soi as his course form figures read 3U. Greaneteen ran well in this race two years ago but he only managed 4th, the same position he finished in the Grand Annual in 2020. He’s gone, as is Captain Guinness. The highest profile casualties by far here are Blue Lord, a faller in the 2021 Supreme and a poor 3rd in last year’s Arkle and Gentleman Du Mee (10th on only previous visit). Plenty fancy those two to run well but the stats say no!
CUT: Chacun Pour Soi; Greaneteen; Captain Guinness; Blue Lord; Gentleman Du Mee.
Recent Form
With five horses already discounted, including two fairly fancied ones, we are left with six remaining contenders. To try and reduce the field further, we’ll consider recent form. Ideally, you want a horse on your side in the Champion Chase that either won or placed last time out and also that has run within two months (60 days) of the race. In a contest like this you can’t afford to be carrying any ring rust. One or two slow jumps and it could be game over.
Since 2000, 18/22 winners had run within 60 days and 17/22 had either won or been placed on their last start. Of those that remain, they all tick the 60 day box, apart from Nube Negra. Dan Skelton’s charge hasn’t been sighted since chasing home Editeur Du Gite at Kempton so it has been 78 days since his last run. The biggest shock so far is that Energumene is disqualified here due to his unplaced effort in the Clarence House. Bad news for favourite backers.
CUT: Nube Negra; Energumene.
2023 Champion Chase Stats: The Verdict
Now, we have just four horses remaining. Rank outsider Couer Sublime has been called plenty of bad names throughout his career but he sneaks into the final four. It is hard to make a case for him on this year’s form but he did get to within a head of Blue Lord at Punchestown less than a year ago. That race is probably his aim again and while he did place in the 2019 Triumph, his last two Festival runs have been dreadful.
To be honest, I had completely written Funambule Sivola off after his first three runs of the season. A 23L last at Sandown was followed by a 36L fourth at Kempton and then a 21L fifth in the Clarence House. However, the return to nice ground and Newbury sparked a massive revival last time out. Venetia Williams’ horse hacked up there, beating Elixir Du Nutz and Greaneteen by over 3 lengths. After a very similar prep last year he finished runner up in this and at 40/1, he is the best value of those that remain.
Editeur On The Rise
In last year’s Champion Chase stats preview, Editeur Du Gite made the final cut. However, the Moores went down the handicap route instead. This year he has confirmed he is a proper Graded chaser and he absolutely loves it at Cheltenham. When he landed the G2 at Kempton at Xmas, some might have thought that was a bit of a fluke. However, his next run in the Clarence House proved it was anything but. He made virtually all again for Niall Houlihan, this time bravely fending off the late challenge of Edwardstone, who re-opposes today.
They meet on identical terms, yet Editeur is 6/1 and the King horse is 15/8. Edwardstone won the Arkle at last year’s festival but in hindsight, it doesn’t exactly look like top class form. Yes, he was impressive when slamming Greaneteen, Gentleman Du Mee and Funambule Sivola at Sandown but he then fell early at Kempton and he had every chance to beat Editeur Du Gite last time, but didn’t. Gary Moore’s horse is now 2-0 against Edwardstone, and at the current odds I know who I’d rather be on.
This could yet cut up into a very small field and with three places currently on offer for ante-post players, last year’s runner up Funambule Sivola is worth backing e/w at 40s.
2023 Champion Chase Stats Prediction
1. Editeur Du Gite @ 6/1
2. Edwardstone @ 15/8
3. Funambule Sivola @ 40/1 (back e/w for 3 places NRNB)
