2023 Bahrain GP Betting Preview

Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2023 Bahrain GP Betting preview. He has already posted a 2023 F1 season preview, check that out here.

The first race of the season is when we finally get to see who has really got what in terms of performance relative to the rest. Last week’s testing dropped some hints but nothing that can be entirely trusted. Last year’s test here suggested that Ferrari and Red Bull would be quick, and they were. It suggested Mercedes might struggle and they did, but they were flattered by the late retirements for the Red Bulls.

The Alfa Romeo looked a points scoring prospect and it was. Alpha Tauri looked good in testing but disappointed in the race. Magnussen looked ordinary in testing but had a great weekend, finishing 5th. By and large the testing form held up, with only Aston Martin and McLaren being truly disappointing. It was rumoured that Aston Martin were in trouble and their poor ‘real pace’ wasn’t a shock.

The pre-season preview posted on Tuesday covers the off-season news and what happened in testing, and I am not going to repeat it all here. Different observers have different pecking orders, but Red Bull got a unanimous thumbs up and have the favourites tag for this weekend and the whole season.

Ferrari Race Pace?

Ferrari look to be second best in terms of pace, but tyre degradation has placed a question mark over their race pace. Mercedes blew hot and cold and are harder to place. Hamilton and Russell say the car is an improvement on last year’s difficult beast, but that they are not yet ready to challenge the big two.

The market mover, the talking horse, comes in the shape of Aston Martin. The investments made in the team’s personnel and facilities didn’t pay off in 2022, but this is a new car from a new design team and it set tongues wagging. Alonso fans are in a state of great excitement, while the man himself is playing things down.

If they were running low on fuel he may have a point, but their long run pace was right up there, and it will be no surprise to see him in the hunt for a podium in his first race with the team. His teammate for the race is not confirmed. Lance Stroll will ‘participate this weekend’, but that just means he will get in the car for FP1 to see if his wrist injury has recovered enough to allow him drive for the rest of the weekend.

High Attrition Not Likely

The first races of the season were traditionally high attrition affairs, but in the last four we have seen just six cars not classified. The two Red Bulls retired late in the race, but they were classified as they had covered 90% of the race distance. It seems the days of cars breaking down in the first race or two have gone. There were very few cars suffering with problems in testing, with the exception of McLaren, who do look to be in the mire.

Last year was the first in the new ground effect era and it shook up what had become an established pecking order. Mercedes fell from grace, Red Bull were resurgent, and Ferrari flattered to deceive, again. Ferrari won the race after Leclerc qualified on pole from Verstappen, Sainz and Perez. It largely went to script from what we had seen in testing. Obviously the two Red Bulls retiring was a surprise but up to that point it was the Ferrari vs. Red Bull battle that was expected.

Something similar can be expected this weekend. Ferrari looked to be a few tenths off Red Bull, but both have more than they have shown, and Ferrari are said to be ‘cautiously optimistic’.

Alpine The Big Unknown

The mystery car is the Alpine. Its testing figures were not encouraging. Slowest of all, only two teams completed fewer laps and it was slower than last year’s car. Yet, the team remain optimistic. In their defence, the relative lack of mileage was due to the team getting used to setting up the new, lighter rear suspension. The relative lack of pace was due to not running the softest compounds and running their ‘performance’ runs in the afternoon when the track was at its slowest.

They concentrated on running on the C3 tyre which will be the soft compound for this weekend. Other teams were setting their fastest times in the evening when the track was faster and on the softer C4 and C5. In other words, they did not show even a hint of their flying lap performance.

Trackside reports suggested that the car looked heavy, suggesting they never ran light and there are doubts as to whether they ever tuned the power units up from more than conservative modes. Old fashioned sand bagging, or just running to a pre-set program?

Boxes Ticked

The team say that the factory to track correlation was as expected and they ticked all the boxes that needed ticking. They also said that they will be bringing a significant upgrade for this weekend. I expect most teams will have upgrades, but Alpines may be the biggest. They did everything to not go fast in the test and as such, have the most to gain by taking out fuel and turning up the power.

If their upgrade is a good one, and they were very good at bringing upgrades that delivered in 2022, then it will be a different beast to the one in testing. If not, they have been talking a lot of old bollocks, and are in trouble. The body language of team personnel was said to be very positive and that is enough for me to believe that they know what they are doing.

A potential podium contender? Probably not but points, decent points, should a realistic target. How they stack up in comparison to Aston Martin will be very interesting as it looks theirs could be a season long battle to be best of the rest.

Mixed Test For Mercedes

Mercedes are another one to watch. Their test was at best mixed. The team came out of it not looking happy, and saying that they now have a car they can develop and that they will get there in the end. That suggests it is not where they had hoped.

Mercedes have had something of exodus of talent. Not all at once and they have good succession planning, but maybe they are just suffering from having less talent. They have a very talented driver line up, but the car is the star in F1.

I suspect the first few races will be damage limitation before they bring their upgrade/redesign when we get to Europe. This weekend looks like they will be doing battle with Aston Martin and maybe Alpine, rather than fighting Red Bull for the win.

Ferrari Thereabouts

Ferrari will be thereabouts, especially in qualifying. How fast they will be when the power units are turned up will be interesting, as will their tyre deg over a race distance. How close they turn out to be to Red Bull is this weekend’s big story. They didn’t go for outright performance runs in the optimum conditions and there is more to come. That can be said of a few teams, but of last year’s big three, Ferrari are still a bit of an unknown.

They are definitely close to the top but how close? Aston Martin showed their hand to a degree, Alfa Romeo had a few obvious glory runs, Red Bull did their fastest time on the soft tyres and when the track was at its fastest, but Ferrari held a bit back. Not in an Alpine way, but there is a bit more to come based just on when they did their performance runs. Reliability was good and that is important for their title chances. Alfa Romeo did have a stoppage said the caused by the Ferrari power unit, so there is that little cloud on the horizon.

2023 Bahrain GP Betting Preview: Driver Records

Lewis Hamilton has never finished worse than 3rd here since 2014. Ocon has scored points in four of his five starts and Bottas has enjoyed nine consecutive top 10 finishes for three different teams. Magnussen has a couple of 5th places for Haas. Leclerc has a win and a third, and that was race he was going to win before his power unit lost power. He also won here in F2 and he is not going to be far off this weekend. Yuki Tsunoda has scored points in both his two previous starts here.

The two Alpine drivers both have scored points here, four top 10s from five for Ocon and three top 8s from five for Gasly.

Verstappen has never won here, he has come very close, but two second places are his best results. Perez has not enjoyed much success in the Bahrain GP, but he did win the Shakir GP in 2021, albeit raced over a different track configuration. He had a podium in 2014 but he has had as many poor races here as good ones.

Bahrain Grand Prix Weather Forecast

The weather in Bahrain is rarely a factor and this weekend looks no exception. Warm sunny days running into pleasantly warm evenings for the night sessions. It may be a little cooler than for testing and there will be the ever present breeze to keep the drivers on their toes.

2023 Bahrain GP: Ante Post Selections

Betting on the first race of the season can be very profitable if you have an edge, a better understanding of the form than the bookies. This season I can’t see any glaring errors in the market.

The Alpine and its performance is the one where the market is a bit confused, and rightly so. Do you take their testing performance as a strong indication of where they are, or go with what the team are saying?

Based on how they performed last year, they are an outfit that can deliver a good all round performer. They are working to a long-term plan and this year’s plan is to get closer to the top three. Fourth or fifth doesn’t really matter, so long as they are getting closer.

Fixing power unit reliability is low hanging fruit, as is losing weight. These two things they say they have done. With a ‘handy’ upgrade coming for the first race, I will take them to be the dark horse of the first race. They are not going to win it, or get a podium on merit, but a top 6 or double points finish is possible.

Aston Martin Hype

Aston Martin are the ones that everyone is talking about and have been priced accordingly. Any value has gone. They are also likely to be a bit of a one-man band this weekend. Lance Stroll has only a few shake down laps under his belt in the car and his race fitness is a big question mark. If he doesn’t race then F1 rookie Felipe Drugovich will stand in. He did 40 laps on the first day of the test, but he is not brilliantly prepared.

Red Bull/ Verstappen are the clear favourites and rightly so. Ferrari may have more in hand, but their tyre deg was hard to hide and that would limit their chances of winning. It may also mean that they will get their tyres switched on in qualifying and we know that Leclerc is a bit of a beast in qualifying and on this track. He is a threat for pole, less for the race. Sainz might be the better bet for the race as he is arguably a better tyre manager.

Overrated Mercedes

Mercedes remain overrated. Hamilton is a lot like Michael Schumacher, priced on past reputation rather than current performance. When Schumacher had a poor car, he was still priced like he had a chance when it was clear the car didn’t. It doesn’t look like Mercedes are delivering their driver with a car that will be competitive, for now at least.

The midfield looks as interesting as last year. McLaren regressing further, Alpha Tauri hard to call. Haas moving up and Alfa Romeo showing potential. Williams look stuck at the back.

The big question for the first race is whether to take an early plunge and hope your pre-season work is right, or hold back until after qualifying when the form is clearer. There does look to be a few bets worth striking at this early stage.

Max Track Record Concern

As far as the race winner is concerned, it is hard to find any good reason to oppose Verstappen, except perhaps his track record here. No wins. Close but no cigar for the last two years. Is it a real bogey track? At odds of 1.83 it is enough of a doubt for me to swerve him, at least for now.

Charles Leclerc makes some appeal at 5.50. He goes well here but would he be a better bet for pole with concerns over Ferrari’s tyre wear? For the time being I will leave the outright win bet alone.

The first bet is for Bottas to finish in the points. Testing went well enough for him. The power unit stoppage is a concern, but his track record is very solid with nine consecutive points finishes, and the car looks quick enough to allow him yet again score in Bahrain.

2023 Bahrain GP Betting Tip: 2 points Valtteri Bottas to finish in the points @ 1.73 with Betvictor, Boylesports, BET365, Ladbrokes

Where Haas are in the pecking order isn’t clear, but they are midfield contenders rather than back markers. The team said they enjoyed their best ever pre-season test and their very experienced driver line up is an asset.

Magnussen is the incumbent driver and likely to be in better condition than the returning Hulkenberg. K Mag has had two fifth place finishes for Haas in the last four years in Bahrain. His fifth last year was his best of the season. Schumacher finished 11th which was his third best result of the season.

Haas tend to be a bit shit or bust in the first race of the season. In their seven seasons in F1 they have scored points in the first race three times, and good points, 6th, 6th and 5th. The 5th came here last year. Usually the first race was in Australia and they tended to have more DNF’s there.

2023 Bahrain GP Betting Tip: 1 point Kevin Magnussen to finish in the points @ 3.50 with Skybet, Ladbrokes

I will take a chance on Alpine. This is the team that the bookies are struggling with. Many seem to have the Alfa Romeo having better prospects than Alpine, which would surprise me. Alfa are good enough for points but if Alpine are as good as I suspect, they might be knocking on the top 6 door.

Of their two drivers, Pierre Gasly has the best track record with two top 6 finishes and an 8th place. He is new at the team but he got plenty of laps in testing and was faster than Ocon on all three days. The lap times are not that important, especially for a team that was going for performance, but racing drivers like to beat their team-mate, whatever the occasion.

2023 Bahrain GP Betting Tip: 1 point Pierre Gasly to finish in the top 6 @ 8.00 with BET365

At the risk of too many eggs in one basket, I’ll back Alpine for a double points finish.

2023 Bahrain GP Betting Tip: 1 point Alpine to have a double points finish @ 4.00 with Boylesports

*The next update will be around 30 minutes before the start of qualifying on Saturday.

-JamesPunt