2023 Cheltenham Festival Handicaps – Each Way Lucky 15

We are continuing to build up towards Cheltenham with just over a week to go until Day 1. Dave Stevos has already posted four stats based previews for the four feature races, we’ll link to those below. He has also found four interesting e/w handicap bets that might be worth chancing as small stakes singles and also maybe in a cheeky e/w lucky 15, if you are into that kind of thing of course. Get Dave’s four picks for the 2023 Cheltenham Festival Handicaps below.

Weather Watch

The weather is an absolute nightmare to try and predict right now. Last night, at around midnight, I checked to see what was forecast in terms of rain for Cheltenham. At that point, it was nearly 70mm between now and the start of racing but 10 hours later, that had dropped to 30mm. It looks like rain is a certainty but what isn’t clear is how much is going to fall?

Given how well the track drains, I can’t see it being anything worse than soft for Tuesday, even if they got the originally forecast 70mm, but it is a guessing game as regards the rest of the week. It looks unlikely that proper good ground horses will get their favoured underhoof conditions, so I’m going to side with those who enjoy getting their toe in. Fingers crossed we can land a couple of nice places.

Tuesday – Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle: Gordons Aura

Eva’s Oskar was taken out yesterday so instead, I’m going to back one in the Fred Winter. Gordon Elliott is a trainer with an excellent record in this race, winning it three times. He has five entered up here and they are all big prices. The one I like, off a mark of 122, is Gordons Aura. We were at Fairyhouse the day he won his maiden hurdle back in February and while it was a far from perfect display, he showed that he had bundles of ability.

He beat a horse called Paradise Lost by 0.5L, even while doing an awful lot wrong. He looked green despite it being his fifth start over timber and Jordan Gainford was nudging and pushing away on the approach to most hurdles. The son of Golden Horn put in a slow leap at the third last and turning in, it looked like the fav was travelling all over him. However, Gainford kept rowing away and in the end, after two decent jumps over the last two obstacles, he probably won more cosily than the winning margin of 0.5L suggests.

Solid Form

The 4th from that race, Feet Of A Dancer, hacked up in a Wexford maiden last week. The form of his previous run is solid too. That day, he ran third at Naas on soft ground, finishing 8L behind Byker, to whom he was conceding 5lbs. He was conceding 7lbs to Mighty Mo Missouri, who was 7L ahead in 2nd. Byker is 15/2 for this race off 128, the Elliott horse is 33/1 off 122, and Mighty Mo Missouri is 25s off 124.

Gordons Aura is 11lbs better off with Byker for 8L and 9lbs better off with the Harrington horse for 7L. He is also closely matched with Zanndabad. The 4yo finished just behind him off levels at Leopardstown in a maiden hurdle won by Tekao when he was 8L back in 8th. He gets 13lbs from Tekao here and on what will hopefully be better ground, I think he can close that gap.

Hill To Suit

Elliott gave his charge a spin around Dundalk a week after his Fairyhouse win. He ran down the field and Sam Ewing reported he didn’t like the track, so put a line through that run. Given how strongly he finished when winning his maiden on his penultimate start, the Cheltenham hill should bring out the best in this horse.

His jumping will need to be slicker than it was last time admittedly, but going left handed might suit him better and so will ground with good in the description. He looks well treated compared to some of his shorter priced Irish rivals and at odds of 33/1, a small e/w interest is advised. Once the ground isn’t too soft, Gordons Aura has the ability to run a huge race, IF he can put it all together on the day.

2023 Cheltenham Festival Handicaps Tips: Gordons Aura e/w @ 33/1 (5 places) NRNB

Wednesday – Grand Annual Handicap Chase: Dancing On My Own

I fancied this horse to run big at last year’s festival, but it wasn’t to be. He was in a decent position as they approached the fourth last but he fluffed his lines and almost unseated Darragh O’Keefe. That cost him all chance but he soon bounced back. Next time at Aintree he jumped like a bunny all the way, finding just The Last Day too good by 2.5L (15L back to Shakem Up’Arry and Sky Pirate in 3rd/4th.

The winner is an Aintree specialist and he’ll likely be aimed at that race again. Will De Bromhead do the same? I don’t think so. The key to this son of Milan is going left handed and I’m convinced he is capable of running a big race around here, if he is right physically and most importantly mentally.

Capable Of Bouncing Back

He had fallen on his final prep run before last year’s Grand Annual and that mistake may have still been playing on his mind. The 9yo has had only had two runs since that Aintree effort, both going right handed at Fairyhouse. He was well beat on both starts but he’s more than capable of bouncing back when going his preferred way round.

Clearly, his trainer was prepping him for a Spring campaign and he won’t be too worried if it is soft. His two career wins have come with cut in the ground, including a maiden hurdle win on heavy. If it comes up good to soft, like Aintree, that would be fine too. He’s just 3lbs higher than when beaten on Merseyside and if he manages to put in a clear and clean round of jumping, he has the ability to run a big race at odds of 33/1.

2023 Cheltenham Festival Handicaps Tips: Dancing On My Own e/w @ 33/1 (5 places) NRNB

Thursday – Pertemps Handicap Hurdle Final: Takarengo

Now that Schalke has been pulled, I’m going to go with another long shot in the Pertemps. Long time followers of this blog will be familiar with this versatile and often frustrating horse. We backed him in the Cesarewitch in 2020 when he ran a massive race to finish 3rd on soft ground off 81. That shows the class this horse has, when he is in the mood, but his strike rate of 4/51 illustrates that he isn’t in the mood very often.

However, bar his last two runs over inadequate trips at Gowran and Fairyhouse, he has been shaping as though he could nick a nice pot over today’s trip of 24f. On his last start at the distance, at the Dublin Racing Festival, he was noted staying on nicely late on for 6th, beat 10L for the win by Perceval Legallois but finishing just 2.75L behind The Gradual Slope who placed in 4th.

Good Punchestown Run

He also ran well over the same C&D when 7th of 27 off 118 in December. Previous to that was his most eyecatching run. In the qualifier for this race he ran a blinder at Punchestown, staying on strongly for 4th, beat just 5L for the win by Shewearsitwell. She won a G3 on her next start and is now rated 10lbs higher. Captain Conby was 3rd off 133 and he is 12/1 for the Coral Cup, for which he has been handed a mark of 143.

The UK handicapper has hit Takarengo with an 8lb rise in comparison to his Irish rating. That obviously isn’t ideal but even if he was rated 118, he’d still be wrong at the weights if the top weight runs. I’d imagine Tom Mullins might use a claimer to negate that rise and if he does, his charge will carry a feather weight. If they go a proper end to end gallop, and Takarengo gets out of the right side of bed, a place is not out of the question at odds of 66/1.

2023 Cheltenham Festival Handicaps Tips: Takarengo @ 66/1 (5 places) NRNB

Thursday – Plate Handicap Chase: Born By The Sea

In 2022, two horses rated 132 managed to sneak into this race. They were 54th/55th of the entries so I am hoping that this year, with less entered, Born By The Sea can sneak in from 47th on the list off a mark of 135. We have backed this lad twice before in the Galway Blazers. He won it in 2021 (22f gd/yld) off 130 and then ran a cracker subsequently in the Kerry National at Listowel off 138.

Gilligan put him away after that until Leopardstown at Christmas 2021. He ran him over 17f which was never likely to suit and in any case, he was in the process of getting him handicapped for a repeat bid in the Blazers. After an 81 day break he ran in this race off 140 and Sean Flanagan never put him into it. He had another small break until June and then he had three runs before running another cracker in the Blazers, this time off 136.

Rock Solid Form

It was a strange sort of run at Galway. He lost his place before staying on strongly again close to home and he was only 4L behind Gabbys Cross (since beat just 4L in the Paddy Power at Leopardstown off 7lbs higher). Busselton (off 140) was 1.5L ahead of Born By The Sea in 2nd and he is now rated 149 after he won the Kerry National next time out.

The 3rd, Fan De Blues, has also franked the form. He was 1L ahead of the Gilligan horse off 140 and he followed up with successive wins, including a Grade B at Cork off 141, and he is now rated 149. Jeremy’s Flame back in 6th adds further strength to the form.

Teed Up

Since that run, it looks like Gilligan has been teeing him up for a race in the Spring. Before both those excellent Galway Blazer runs he followed the same blueprint, 3 or 4 prep runs, with the final one coming over too sharp a trip less than 2/3 weeks before his main target. In 2021 he ran down the field in a 12f flat maiden before his win and in 2022, he did the exact same. This time, with no flat turf races available before Cheltenham, he ran him in a 16f G3 at Naas.

Unsurprisingly, that proved much too short a trip but hopefully, it has sharpened up nicely. The UK handicapper has let him in off 135, a pound lower than he was at Galway in July. A strongly run 20.5f around Cheltenham should really suit and he’ll be carrying a feather weight if Jack Gilligan takes off 7lbs. With non runner no bet available it is worth taking a chance that he sneaks in and if he does and he tries, he is well capable of outrunning his odds of 100/1.

2023 Cheltenham Festival Handicaps Tips: Born By The Sea e/w @ 100/1 (5 places) NRNB

-DaveStevos

2023 Cheltenham Handicaps e/w Lucky 15 (ALL NRNB)

Boodles – gordons aura e/w @ 33/1 (5 places)

Grand Annual – Dancing On My Own e/w @ 33/1 (5 places)

Pertemps – takarengo e/w @ 40/1 (5 places)

Festival Plate – Born by The Sea e/w @ 100/1 (5 places)

*If any of these horses are taken out this week, I’ll update with alternative selections.