2023 Saudi GP Qualifying Update

James’ pre-race outright betting preview is here. Now, it is time for his 2023 Saudi GP Qualifying Update.

2023 Saudi Arabia GP Qualifying

We definitely got the value ante post with Verstappen to be the fastest qualifier. He was 2.20 on Thursday but he will be going into the qualifying session as a very short priced 1.22 favourite.

Max was 0.613 faster than his teammate in second place this afternoon and one second faster than Alonso in third. He is in a different category to the rest. The only threat to his pole position prospects is hitting the wall, and he has done it before here, so no chickens can be counted just yet. Interestingly, he was not fastest in any practice session at Shakir, but this weekend, he has been way out in front in all three. This track is better for the Red Bull.

Tight In Midfield

From Alonso in 3rd, the next twelve cars are covered by just 0.5 seconds. It is very tight in the huge midfield. The conditions will be a bit different for qualifying, but the track temperature this afternoon was cooler, so maybe this FP3 session is a little more representative than usual. The track was ramping up lap by lap and that makes guessing the pecking order a bit tricky.

Alpine have definitely looked more competitive this weekend, but they ended up 9th and 14th in FP3. They did their second soft tyre qualifying sim quite early in the session and that may have cost them a couple of tenths. They should be looking at Q3 for both drivers.

Ferrari are a bit of a puzzle. Yes, they have probably been running with the power units turned down low, but they have to turn them up at some point and throwing the drivers into qualifying without having had any laps close to full power is putting them at a disadvantage. They must be terrified that something is going to break to be running so cautiously. Or they could just be slow.

Aston Martin Second Best

Aston Martin look to be second best. They looked like that in Bahrain but dropped back to 5th and 8th in qualifying. They may have been running a bit light. Mercedes look to be in much the same position they were in at Shakir, both drivers should reach Q3 but a small mistake and they won’t.

Both McLarens were top 10 this afternoon, which they haven’t looked capable of so far. The car seems to have reasonable pace but how they manage the race is the big issue for them. Piastri can be backed at 3.75 to beat Norris. They had near identical times in FP3 which suggests there could be some value there, but Norris usually finds a bit more come the real thing.

The two teams who look to have the biggest problems are Alpha Tauri (De Vries didn’t run today as his car was being fitted with a new PU) and Tsunoda was unable to do a soft tyre run as he too was stuck in the garage with a problem. Alfa Romeo have been very slow all weekend and they look like candidates for an early exit in Q1.

Bunched Field

The fact is that the field is very bunched, except for Red Bull. The drivers can be heroes or zeros today. String a perfect lap together and they can make up a lot of places, make a mistake that costs a tenth or two, and you will have a much harder day on Sunday.

It being so close, between so many drivers, makes this a difficult session for punters.

I like the look of the winning margin being over 0.25 seconds. Verstappen would have to drive with the handbrake on to allow another team to get that close. Only Perez looks like he could get close, and he hasn’t in any session so far. He did in Bahrain, but Verstappen has just been in a different class here.

2023 Saudi GP Qualifying Tip: 1 point the qualifying winning margin to be over 0.25 seconds @ 2.00 with Ladbrokes

Hulkenberg can be backed at 2.75 to reach Q3 with Ladbrokes, as he did in the opening race. He was 8th in FP2, the most representative session in terms of the conditions we will see for qualifying. The Haas does seem to have decent one lap pace but not so good race pace. If he can string a good session together, he is one of the drivers who could earn a top 10 starting sport, but it is very, very close, and just a bit too risky for me. The same could be said about Alex Albon in the Williams at 3.25.

-JamesPunt