2023 Saudi GP Raceday Update and Tips – JP
2023 Saudi GP Raceday Update
James’ pre-race outright betting preview is here. Now, it is time for his 2023 Saudi GP Raceday Update. He has three more bets, see what he is backing below.
2023 Saudi Arabia GP Raceday Preview
It was kick in the guts time in yesterday’s qualifying. Verstappen was nailed on to land the fastest qualifier bet but he suffered a rare mechanical failure and that was that. The winning margin bet should still have copped with Perez, but he aborted his final run and allowed Leclerc to get under the 0.25 mark to cancel that one out as well.
We have ended up with a very mixed up grid for the second race of the season, and perhaps it is just what the race needed. Verstappen starting from the front would likely have had only one outcome, but now we have a toss up between Perez and Verstappen.
Red Bull Streets Ahead
Such is the Red Bulls advantage over the field, that even starting from 15th, Verstappen is the 2.50 second favourite. Red Bull teammate Sergio Perez is the 2.20 favourite. Verstappen won from 14th place in Belgium last year and as George Russell pointed out, this year’s Red Bull has a much bigger advantage. It only took Verstappen 12 laps to move from 14th to 1st that day.
The track should help Verstappen in his quest. There are three DRS overtaking zones and Max should be able to place himself behind cars and just pick them off one by one. The likelihood of safety car deployments can bunch the field, drawing him closer to the front of the pack. It would seem that the only man that can deny him the win is Perez, who should be able to control this race from the front.
What happens if and when Verstappen catches Perez is open to question. This early in the season means there should be no team orders, and we know that Verstappen is not minded to operate for anyone other than himself. The team may ask him to hold station and not risk a collision, but I suspect he would ignore the request.
Perez A Narrow Fav
Perez starts as the favourite and rightly so. He starts at the front in the fastest car and he should be able to open a big gap on the field and make Verstappen have to thrash it to catch him. It is a very long season and Max might think that settling for second and saving some power unit life is the sensible option. Red Bull need to bank as many points as possible early in the season to given them the option to stop developing this year’s car early and spend the limited resources on next year’s.
Perez has won four Grand Prix and three of them were on street circuits, so he likes racing close to the walls and is due a bit of good fortune after having a winning chance denied him here last year when he also started form pole, but he was on the wrong end of a badly timed safety car which dropped him from first to fourth, which is where he finished.
That underlines that this race is not straight forward, and I haven’t yet mentioned reliability. Red Bull had a stuttering start to 2022 and now we have had a mechanical failure for Verstappen in race weekend 2, and after he had already changed a gearbox as a precaution. There must be a serious doubt as to the Red Bulls finishing the race, but if they do, another 1-2 finish is a possibility despite Verstappen’s lowly grid position.
Grid Penalty Leclerc
Fernando Alonso will start second after Leclerc’s grid penalty dropped him to 12th on the grid. Alonso jumped Perez at the start of the first race of the season, but he was never going to be able to hold off the Red Bull, and the same applies today. Alonso knows that if he is to win, he needs Perez to have serious trouble, most likely a DNF. Even then, he has to remember Verstappen is still in the race in the other rocket ship.
The Aston Martin was best of the rest in Bahrain but they were helped by the fact that the tyre deg on the Ferrari and Mercedes gave him an advantage that may not exist here. He needs luck, or bad luck for Perez, and a perfect performance if he is to win.
Stroll Needs Luck
His odds of 6.50 (7.00 win only) look a bit short given his task. We have backed Stroll for a podium finish, and he should have done a little better yesterday. He was set for a high finish in Q3 yesterday, but a very poor final sector left him starting 5th and he will need a lot of things to go his way if that is to land.
Stroll does look reasonable value to beat Lewis Hamilton. The long run pace on Friday has Aston Martin two or three tenths up on the Mercs. Hamilton is far from happy, looks a bit unmotivated and clearly hates the car. Stroll is carrying an injury, but this track will be less physical for him. He starts two places ahead of Hamilton and he is the outsider of two.
2023 Saudi GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Lance Stroll to beat Lewis Hamilton @ 1.90 with Unibet
Mercedes’ George Russell starts in third place. The car is poor, but one thing it has over its rivals, and did last year, is reliability. They took advantage of unreliability or mistakes ahead of them to score far more podiums than the car deserved. Now, here we have Russell benefiting from Ferrari and Red Bull unreliability. Russell enjoyed his lap yesterday and he looks to be holding the whip at Mercedes as Hamilton just says he is ‘disconnected’ to the car and starts from 7th.
Sainz Not Happy
Carlos Sainz is the lead Ferrari in 4th place. He was far from happy with his performance in qualifying, just not able to get it hooked up in sector 1. Their long run pace was hard to tell on Friday as they ran with the power units well down on power.
Leclerc says that he feels the Ferrari is pretty much on the same pace as Aston Martin and Mercedes, but they were slower than Aston Martin and Alpine on Friday’s long run pace, clouded by the engine settings of course.
The Ferrari was faster than the Aston and Mercedes on the long straights yesterday and that might just be enough for him to get a podium finish. The Ferrari is not totally reliable either and there are tyre deg issues to consider, but this track is very well suited to the strengths and weaknesses of Ferrari.
2023 Saudi GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Carlos Sainz to finish on the podium @ 3.50 with Unibet
Alpine got both cars into Q3. but they look unconvincing. Ocon really does seem to have an affinity with the track and from 6th place he is in a good position to take advantage of any chaos and add to his 4th and 6th place finishes here.
Their long run pace saw them third fastest on Friday, so a decent result is possible for Ocon. His teammate starts 9th and a bit too far back, With the likes of Leclerc and Verstappen coming through, he might do well to finish in the points. Ocon is 3.75 to have his third straight Jeddah Top 6 finish which is just about right and sadly not great value.
McLaren have their rookie Oscar Piastri starting 8th. The reliability of the McLaren has been very poor in testing and in the first race, but 13.00 for a top 6 in a race that could be mad is not the worst bet on offer.
Nico Hulkenberg starts 10th but their long run pace looked very poor on Friday, some 1.6 seconds off Red Bull and over a second off the Ferrari and Mercedes.
Reliability Issues
Dodgy reliability means any bets on Red Bull have to be scaled back, but they remain the team to beat. Perez is in the literal and metaphorical pole position. His biggest threat starts 15th and he is unlikely to get a better chance to win a race, so long as the car doesn’t breakdown.
He has already had a new gearbox fitted as precaution, but so did Verstappen, so clearly, there is a weakness in it. Perhaps all the weight loss over the winter has made a few parts a little less robust?
2023 Saudi GP Race Winner
We didn’t back anyone for the race win ante post. Verstappen was a not an attractive enough price at 1.50. He is now a 2.50 shot, despite starting 15th. His teammate is 2.20 and starts from pole position. Perez is not as quick as Verstappen, but he isn’t a dummy either.
His best form is on street circuits and IF his gearbox doesn’t pack up, he should be an odds on shot. Max is in the danger zone. Not only does he have to overtake a lot of cars, he has to avoid other people’s accidents, and on a narrow street circuit, that can be easier said than done.
If he can be patient for a few laps than he should carve his way through the pack, but Perez should have built himself a good lead. Safety cars are not going to be Perez’ friend today. The fewer the better.
Red Bull are just 1.20 to be the winning constructor, and 2.20 to finish 1-2. All perfectly reasonable, but with the cloud of unreliability hanging over them.
I have to go for Perez. He has the car, and he has pole. The stakes are the problem. If reliability wasn’t such a worry, he would be a strong bet, but even two points is a bit of a stretch. Fingers crossed.
