2023 Kelso and Newbury Saturday Racing Tips – DS
2023 Kelso and Newbury Saturday Preview
No winner, but at least we landed a couple of nice places last week. The day began dreadfully with Del La Mar Rocket stopping as if shot after a few furlongs. Too Friendly was given a badly judged ride and Lynwood Gold was always in rear. Dublin Four then fell and at that stage, I feared the worst. However, Notachance (28s) and Fern Hill (22s) both placed, ensuring we didn’t go home empty handed. It is a bumper day on Saturday on ITV, 10 live races including a couple from Meydan. Check out Dave Stevos’ 2023 Kelso and Newbury (and Meydan) Saturday preview below.
1.30 Newbury – Novices’ Handicap Hurdle (Class 3)
It is fair to say that today’s jump racing isn’t of the highest quality. That is to be expected after Cheltenham and first up, we have a class 3 novices’ handicap hurdle at Newbury. The ground is on the soft side and Inneston, runner up in a much better race than this last time on heavy at Sandown (20f), is the fav for the Moores.
However, his sole handicap win came effectively off 108, he was beat off 117 last time and he is up another 7lbs today. He could outclass these but even so, he needs to prove he can win off his current mark. Toothless might want better ground than this and of those at the head of the market, Atlanta Brave is probably the one that represents the best value at around 8/1. Kerry Lee’s 5yo makes his handicap debut after successive maiden/novice wins and he will love the ground.
Bigger Price
At a slightly bigger price, maybe Glen Cannel can resume his progress returned to softer conditions. Laura Morgan is having a fine season and Adam Wedge takes the ride. This horse ran well in a bumper on debut, finishing 3rd at Worcester, before softer ground and a step up in trip saw him land a maiden hurdle at Market Rasen (20f sft). A gutsy novice win at Ayr (20f hvy) soon followed. The form of the first win is nothing special but the 2nd and 3rd in his novice have both gone close subsequently.
Morgan upped her charge in distance and class at Musselburgh (24f gd/sft) last time. However, the trip proved too far and though he was beat 15L by Inis Oirr in the end, he did shape a lot better than that before his stamina ran out. The runner up from that race has since won off 130 at Kempton and I think the winner is a nice horse too. Today’s trip will suit better and at 10/1, Glen Cannel will hopefully run a massive race.
2023 Kelso and Newbury Tip: Glen Cannel e/w @ 10/1
1.50 Kelso – Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)
A nice enough pot for this series final with the winner taking home just over £15k. The ground is currently described as good to soft at Kelso but there is rain forecast this evening and tomorrow. It will most likely be soft and one horse that won’t mind a bit of an ease is last year’s 3rd in this race, Idilico. Trained by Dianne Sayer, Conor O’Farrell looks a notable booking for the 8yo son of Lawman.
He has been on board for two of Idilico’s four UK wins and he was in the saddle when he was badly hampered before finishing 8L 3rd off 100 in this race last season. If he wasn’t hampered he’d probably have finished much closer to the winner Romeo Brown, who has since won for us off a 10lb higher mark.
Sayer’s charge is in off 99 today, a pound lower than he was last season and just 2lbs higher than he was when winning easily at Perth in August. He shaped as though coming back to form last time at Musselburgh after a couple of moderate runs and he’ll surely be trying for what is a relatively big pot given his level of ability. Sayer has had 22 winners and 91 top 4s from 220 previous runners at Kelso, hopefully Idilico can enhance that record at odds of 16/1.
2023 Kelso and Newbury Tip: Idilico e/w @ 16/1 (4 places)
2.05 Newbury – Handicap Chase (Class 2)
Numitor struggled on his first two runs this season and he had a wind op after being pulled up at Chepstow in December. After a couple of months off he made his return to action off 137 at Warwick (20f gd) and on ground quicker than ideal, he ran a pretty decent race, finishing 9.5L 3rd behind Galahad Quest. It was his best run of the campaign and it looked like the wind procedure did him good.
The handicapper has given Heather Main’s charge a real chance now. He is down to a mark of 135, 5lbs lower than when a close 2nd behind Corran Cross at Haydock (20f gd/sft) last April. Previous to that run he hacked up by 10L off 131 at Doncaster (19f sft). He has also run well at Newbury before, chasing home the then 131 rated Il Ridoto (to whom he was giving 7lbs) off 130 in November 2021.
The winner is now rated 146 and Frero Bambou was 3rd so the form is solid. Going left handed on easy ground really suits this son of Schiaparelli and there isn’t a lot of early pace in this, so he might just get his own way out in front. If they give Numitor too much rope, he could be hard to peg back and at 14/1, Heather Main’s 9yo is the each way selection.
2023 Kelso and Newbury Tip: Numitor e/w @ 14/1 NAP
2.25 Kelso – Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)
Just seven runners and a race I’m happy to leave well alone. I’d like to see Inis Oirr prove me right by running big off 122 on handicap debut but he is only 9/2 today. If conditions turn very soft then Flower Of Scotland could run a massive race off her lower hurdles mark but she is a much better chaser. No bet.
2023 Kelso and Newbury Tip: No Bet
2.40 Newbury – NH Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (Class 2)
Eighteen runners and a puzzle that is going to be very tricky to solve. If she can rediscover the form she showed on her first three runs this season, Annie Magic could run well for Jeremy Scott and Rex Dingle. This mare, a P2P winner this time last year, made a very nice start to her rules career in November. She finished 4.25L behind Lutinebella in an Exeter Novice with Moviddy a further 14L behind in 3rd. She re-opposes today and she is a pound worse off with Annie Magic for that defeat.
Scott’s daughter of Westerner got of the mark at Wincanton next time, beating Lime Avenue by 9L (21f gd/sft). The runner up has since won a novice and is now rated 117. On handicap debut at Exeter (18f hvy) Annie Magic jumped left and was beat 2L by Marsh Wren off 119.
Her last two runs have been poor, but maybe 24f on good ground simply wasn’t her bag in a Listed heat at Doncaster last time out. This trip, class and ground should be more suitable and if she can repeat the form of her first three runs of the season, she is capable of hitting the frame at odds of 20/1.
2023 Kelso and Newbury Tip: Annie Magic e/w @ 20/1 (5 places)
3.00 Kelso – Mares’ Novices’ Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)
Bonttay was entered up in the Mares’ Novice at Cheltenham but didn’t run. A Listed bumper winner at that track in 2021, she was second in the same race a year later on her return from a layoff back in November. She got off the mark on her second try over hurdles at Exeter on her penultimate start (16f gd/sft) before finishing 6.5L 2nd over 18f on soft at Market Rasen. To be honest, she looked like she might need further in that race so for me, this drop back to 16f is a concern. However, 110 looks a very workable mark and she might just be too good for these.
One that could go well at a price is Dime Store Cowgirl. She gets in off 89 here with Tristan Durrell taking off another 5lbs. That means she is effectively 3lbs lower than when winning on her handicap debut at Catterick (15.5f soft). The step up in trip to 21f on good ground didn’t suit next time, but it was more like it at Uttoxeter back at 16f on soft last time.
Quick Turnaround
In that race she was beat 5.5L by Atlantic Dancer and she is effectively 6lbs lower today. That run was just a week ago, which is a quick turnaround, but she must have come out of it well. The more rain that falls, the better it will suit this daughter of Gentlewave and Skelton does well at Kelso (6 wins/17 top 4s from just 35 runners.
Bridget Andrews rides his other entry here but Tristan Durrell has solid strike rate for the yard, with 23 winners from 158 rides. Andrews’ lowest weight in the last 12 months was 10st 4lbs, so maybe that is why she is on the top weight today. With trip and ground to suit and in a first time tongue tie, Dime Store Cowgirl can hopefully sneak into the frame at 16/1.
2023 Kelso and Newbury Tip: Dime Store Cowgirl e/w @ 16/1
3.10 Meydan – Dubai Turf (Group 1)
We head from soggy Scotland to sun drenched Meydan for the first of three live races from the Dubai track. Given how these top level global races have been going in the last year or two, the Japanese horses are going to be the ones to beat. Usually, it is Godolphin that dominates these Dubai Group 1s but since 2013, only Benbatl has managed to win this for the Boys In Blue.
Lord North won the race in 2021, he dead heated in 2022 and he is back for the hat trick bid in 2023. I am a big fan of John Gosden’s horse and we were on at silly odds when he was a very close (and arguably unlucky) 4th in the Coral Eclipse last season. He dead heated with Japanese raider Panthalassa in this last year and his biggest threat this year also hails from those shores.
Career Best
Serifos is the favourite today and he produced the run of his life last time at Hanshin. He landed the Mile Championship, a G1 worth over 1.1 million to the winner, and he did it in style. This is his first run back after 125 days off but he is sure to be primed for a pot as big as this one (4.16 million to the winner). The runner up from his last race subsequently filled the same position in the prestigious Hong Kong Cup so the form looks rock solid and if he is on form, Serifos is the one to beat.
One that looks a shade overpriced at 28/1 is another Japanese horse, Vin De Garde. This 7yo ran a massive race in this last season under Mickael Barzalona, who rides again. He was just a nose behind Lord North and Panthalassa, just failing to get up. The 7yo has run just twice since, when beat 6L after three months off at Tokyo (8f gd/fm) and then a prep run for this on the dirt in Riyadh last month.
The son of Deep Impact is drawn 14, which isn’t ideal, but he is a hold up performer so it won’t be that much of a hindrance. He was also 2nd in this race in 2021, 3L behind Lord North, so he clearly likes this track and trip and he has obviously been targeted at it again. Hopefully Vin De Garde can make it third time lucky at odds of 28/1.
Meydan Saturday Tip: Vin De Garde e/w @ 28/1 (4 places) NB
3.35 Kelso – Handicap Chase (Class 2)
We backed Half Shot last time and he just failed to get his head in front. He got 4lbs for that head defeat and he ought to go well again. However, the bookies haven’t missed him this time and he doesn’t appeal at 11/2. To be honest, this is a race in which it is hard to make a strong case for anything at a big price.
Cilaos Emery could go well if on his best form but we haven’t seen that for a while. It can often take ex Mullins horses a while to rediscover their mojo after leaving the yard so he doesn’t tempt me. Bavington Bob is in good hands but he’s run dreadfully on five of his last six runs.
Big River likes it here but he is an inconsistent horse and he’s not getting any younger. I think Sandy Thomson could take this with either Doyen Breed or Hill Sixteen but they are both single figure odds. It is probably best to keep the powder dry on this occasion. No bet.
2023 Kelso and Newbury Tips: No Bet
4.00 Meydan – Dubai Sheema Classic (Group 1)
Shahryar won this for Japan last year and he is back to repeat the dose. He is around 11/1 to defend his crown and he’s had an identical prep to last season, placing in the Japan Cup on his last outing. However, his Japanese compatriot Equinox is the one that is all the rage for the Dubai Sheema this season.
Trained by Tetsuya Kimura, this son of Kitasan Black comes here on the back of successive G1 victories. He beat last year’s Turf winner Panthalassa by a length at Tokyo in October, then he won the 2.5 million Arima Kinen over 12f at Nakayama on Christmas Day. This horse doesn’t know how to run a bad race and if he has travelled over ok and settled into his new surroundings, he is going to be very hard to beat.
E/W Value
Those searching for a bit of e/w value could do worse than take a chance on Win Marilyn. The only mare in the race, she beat Botanik last time out to land the Hong Kong Vase at Sha Tin (12f gd). That was the 6yo daughter of Screen Shot’s third run at 12f in her career, returning form figures of 121. The first win came in G2 company, but the last two were at the highest level.
She is a pound better off with Botanik today, so she should at least uphold that piece of form. The favourite is definitely going to be a tough nut to crack but with a weight for sex allowance, if Win Marilyn is in the same shape as she was last time, she can run big for Damian Lane at odds of 22/1.
Meydan Saturday Tip: Win Marilyn e/w @ 22/1
4.35 Meydan – Dubai World Cup (Group 1)
The final live race of the day and what a race it is. The Dubai World Cup, now the second richest horse race in the world, closes the show at this year’s Carnival. The winner takes home a cool £6 million and a field of 15 will fight it out for the moolah.
Bob Baffert, the shadiest operator in US racing, won this last year with Country Grammer. Frankie Dettori is back to ride him again and he is just a 4/1 shot to retain his title. He had to give best to Panthalassa in the Saudi Cup last time out over 9f and connections will hope that this extra furlong enables him to turn the tide on that Japanese rival. However, if I was having a bet on either of those horses, Panthalassa would make a lot more appeal at 4x his rival’s odds.
Moore Booked
There are eight Japanese horses in total in this race and the one I’ll take a punt on is Jun Light Bolt. This son of King Kamehameha beat Crown Pride on the all weather in Chukyo over 9f on his last start in Japan. After an 83 day break, he pitched up at Riyadh for the Saudi Cup, his first run on the Dubai dirt. Ryan Moore got the leg up for the first time but the 11/2 shot could only manage 7th, 7L behind the first two and 5L behind Crown Pride.
I am hoping that Yasuo Tomomichi’s charge was lacking a bit of fitness after his break. If that is the case, that run should have left him spot on and it is interesting that Ryan Moore maintains the partnership. When he won at Chukyo he was a little bit closer to the early pace than he was in Saudi and he finished off with a right rattle. If that last run has sharpened him up and it wasn’t the surface that beat him, hopefully he can stay on late for place money at odds of 20/1.
