2023 German Darts Grand-Prix Betting Preview – JP
2023 German Darts Grand-Prix Preview
The 2023 German Darts Grand-Prix will be the fifth renewal of this event and we have had just two different winners. Michael van Gerwen won the first three and was a semi-finalist last year which was won by Luke Humphries, who beat the unseeded Martin Lukeman in the final. The Kulturhalle Zenith in Munich remains the venue. Van Gerwen will not be adding to his three titles as he has taken the weekend off.
Last week saw Gerwyn Price land our ante post bet, beating Michael van Gerwen in the final. The Welshman was unplayable for most of last weekend, and he picked up his second Euro Tour title in a row. He is back again this weekend and who is to say that he won’t make it three.
This tournament runs from Saturday to Sunday, rather than the usual Friday to Sunday. That will be welcome news for the Premier League players who have an extra day off between competitions.
2023 German Darts Grand-Prix – The Seeds
1 Luke Humphries
Withdrew from last week’s event having had to pull out the week before with food poisoning. If he isn’t fit enough this weekend, it was more than food poisoning. Hard to say what form he will be in after two weeks out. He had won seven of his last ten before his enforced break and was runner up in ET1, the only Euro Tour event he has played in 2023.
2 Damon Heta
Back-to-back quarter finals on the Euro Tour will have boosted his confidence in what has been a slow start to 2023. He has won six of his last ten matches, but he doesn’t look like a winner in waiting.
3 Rob Cross
Back-to-back semi-finals and quarter finals in the last two weeks on the Euro Tour is about right. He is playing well but is still hitting a flat spot before reaching a final. The quest for that elusive ET title goes on.
4 Dave Chisnall
Has his hot streak fizzled out? The winner of ET1 in February, followed by some incredible scoring in Players Championship events, but he has been disappointing in the last two weeks, going down very tamely in the third round twice.
5 Nathan Aspinall
I am beginning to lose faith in the Asp. Is he only interested in the Premier League? He hasn’t impressed in Europe so far and he is struggling to string wins together. He has lost six of his last ten, despite having hit five maximums, he just isn’t one to back at the moment.
6 Michael Smith
Getting a bit stale? Smith has played and travelled a lot in 2023 and he was bound to get a bit jaded at some point. He is doing slightly better in the Premier League but playing that and then having to travel to Europe for Euro Tour events means his feet aren’t touching the floor for long. He might be better taking a weekend off. Bully Boy has lost seven of his last ten matches (the last two 1-6) and he is just a little bit off.
7 Dirk van Duijvenbode
The only thing between Dirk and a euro title has been Gerwyn Price in the last two weeks. He lost to the Welshman in the final in Leverkusen and the in the semi-final last week. His scoring is heavy and consistent, and it was a bit of a surprise to see just a 90 average when going down to Price on Sunday night. Perhaps Price has just got into his head? They are in the same half of the draw again this weekend.
8 Peter Wright
Has his horrible run of form ended? Wright reached the quarter final last weekend, but he only averaged just 84 when beating Alan Soutar 6-4 in the third round and he was just lucky that Soots was even worse.
His 2023 win rate is just 49% and there were no real signs of any comeback, until he threw the formbook out the window and didn’t just win a Premier League match, he won two on Thursday. From winning just one match in nine weeks, he beat Smith and Price, before losing the final 5-6 to Jonny Clayton. Averages of 95, 97 and 91 are hardly classic Snakebite, but four wins from his last six matches will have given his confidence a big boost.
9 Joe Cullen
Four defeats in a row coming into this and not looking anywhere near his best.
10 Danny Noppert
Losing five of his last ten matches isn’t great and he has looked flat for the last two weekends. He did reach the semi-final two weeks ago, but he was lucky in the quarter final to win with an 89 average. He didn’t impress last weekend, lucky to beat a qualifier in the first round and failing to take advantage of a 71% checkout rate against Dirk van Duijvenbode.
11 Gerwyn Price
Remains the man to beat. He has lost just two of his last seventeen matches and he averaged 99.5 and 101 in those defeats. He has played 12 Euro Tour matches in 2023 and hit ten ton plus averages, and not just ton averages, but BIG ton averages. Travel fatigue would seem to be the biggest threat but winning is great for keeping energy levels high.
12 Martin Schindler
Reached the semi-final last weekend but outside of his 102 average when beating Jonny Clayton, there wasn’t anything to write home about. He is helped by the fact that he is the crowd favourite week-in week-out, but he will find someone too good for him.
13 Jonny Clayton
Winner of eight of his last ten matches and he has played some good stuff. He has won the last two weeks’ Premier League nights to move into the play off places and suddenly all is good in The Ferret’s world. He is never a long way from his best, but he has been short of it for a while now and just hasn’t looked like he has a proper title in him. Clayton now enters the equation but with just one ET title in his entire career, a sense of proportion is required.
14 Josh Rock
Has won six of his last ten, reached the final of PC7 three weeks ago but just hasn’t looked consistent enough get a win.
15 Dimitri van den Bergh
Had seemed to be heading in the right direction a couple of weeks ago, but he has lost five of his last six matches and four saw sub 30% checkout rates. He played better in Thursdays PL, averaging 97 in a 5-6 loss to Gerwyn Price. Playing better than his record suggests but it would be a surprise to see a deep run.
16 Jose de Sousa
Continues to struggle with his game, losing five of his last ten matches. Occasionally we see his A game but half the time his doubling is poor and he just looks like he is not enjoying it anymore.
Best of the unseeded players
It must be said that the vast majority of the seeded players make little appeal. Could this be an opportunity for one of the un-seeded players to ‘do a Lukeman’ and reach the final at big odds?
Andrew Gilding
Has won just three of his eight matches since winning the UK Open. He averaged 100 when beating Daryl Gurney in the first round but lost 2-6 to Chizzy in the second. He is playing well enough to have a run if he gets a favourable draw. Goldfinger is set to face Clayton in the second round, so a fairly tough draw, but he is 3-3 with The Ferret.
Ross Smith
Has a win rate of 75% in 2023, has won seven of his last ten matches, but hasn’t been at his best. He is winning matches with his B game. There is more in the locker, and he is an interesting outsider.
Matt Campbell
The Canadian is flying under the radar in 2023. He has a win rate of 67%, has won seven of his last ten matches and missed match darts to beat MVG in the second round last week. Probably lacks the consistency to have a really long run, but his A game is good and it is on show more often this season. He has received a tough draw, facing Rydz in the first and Dirk van Duijvenbode awaits the winner of that.
Daryl Gurney
Plenty of signs of a return to form but he has not enjoyed much luck with the draws. Needs to get a couple of wins under his belt and make the final day. That might be the spark that allows him to relax and play the kind of games he has been players in the qualifiers. For once he has got a reasonable draw, facing Menzies in the first round and Aspinall in the second should he beat the Ayrshire plumber. Superchin has a winning H2H record against both. His best opportunity for a good run for a while.
Gabriel Clemens
Played four and lost three on the Euro Tour in 2023. His overall form sees four wins from his last ten matches and that doesn’t suggest that his poor Euro Tour form is about to improve.
Simon Whitlock
Has good memories of the Kulturhalle having been a semi-finalist in 2017 and runner up in 2018. Lacks the consistency these days and he has lost five of his last ten matches.
Chris Dobey
Averaged 106 in defeat to MVG on Thursday and has lost six of his last ten. Playing better than that suggests and he will be grateful for the Saturday start, rather than another frantic dash from the Premier League venue to Germany in a matter of hours.
The Draw
The top quarter has Luke Humphries, Jose de Sousa, Peter Wright and Joe Cullen as the four seeds. Humphries has been out of commission for two weeks and in the meantime, Peter Wright has shown signs of a return to form.
The semi-finalist should come from those two. However, the draw has introduced Ross Smith into the equation. He faces the out of form Hempel in the first round and another out of form player in the shape of Joe Cullen in the second. Smith has won 75% of his matches in 2023 and he can go deep.
The four seeds in the second quarter are Dave Chisnall, Nathan Aspinall, Jonny Clayton and Martin Schindler. An open looking quarter but a rejuvenated Clayton makes the most appeal. I do like Daryl Gurneys draw and should he make Sunday and the fourth round, he has a 4-0 H2H record against Clayton who looks likely to the hurdle to overcome at that stage.
Third Quarter
The third quarter features Dirk van Duijvenbode, along with Danny Noppert, Dimitri van den Bergh and Damon Heta. Dirk has won his quarter for the last two ET events and he has to be favourite to do so again. His big problem is that he is likely to meet Price when he gets there, and we know how that has gone in the last two weeks.
The bottom quarter has man of the moment, Gerwyn Price, and do we need to look any further? Rob Cross, Josh Rock and Michael Smith are the other seeds but none jump out as likely to better Price. He may drop the ball, he drops plenty of darts, but on form, he makes his third semi-final in a row.
2023 German Darts Grand-Prix: Ante-Post Selections
With MVG taking a break, the market has Gerwyn Price as the 5.00 favourite. He was 7.50 last week and the value is reduced, but his favouritism is deserved.
Alternatives come in the shape of Dirk van Duijvenbode. We had him each way two weeks ago and that paid out on the place, but this week, like last, he is in the same half of the draw as Price.
He must beat him in the semi-final if he is to reach the payout places, and he has lost to Price in the last two weeks. He did miss match darts in the final but was beaten comprehensively in the semi-final last weekend. Dirk is a 17.00 shot this weekend, shorter than he was last week despite facing the same challenge.
Focus on Top Half
The best plan of attack might be to concentrate on the top half of the draw and see if we can find a finalist at a backable e/w Price.
Luke Humphries is the defending champion and while having two weeks out with food poisoning is clouding his form, he has a decent draw. Of the seeds in his quarter, only Wright looks dangerous, and his comeback is at an early stage.
The second quarter gives Jonny Clayton a chance to take his resurgent Premier League form to the European arena. He has a recent win against Price, so you never know, he could win only his second Euro Tour title.
However, I am prepared to roll the dice and back two unseeded players who look to have good draws and have the game to beat the top players.
