Monday German Darts Grand-Prix Tips – JP
Sunday German Darts Grand-Prix Sunday Preview
James kept things ticking over last night with another couple of nice winners. We are now into the final day and Gerwyn Price is carrying our ante-post hopes. Hopefully he can deliver again. James Punt’s Sunday German Darts Grand-Prix preview and tips are below.
Michael Smith vs. Gerwyn Price
Smith laboured to a 6-5 win over Adam Warmer last night. He only averaged 85.6, he has lost six of his last ten matches and had Warner not missed match darts, it would be three wins from seven. His scoring is usually a lot better than that and most of his defeats are against PL players, but it is still not great for his confidence. He has lost both of his Euro Tour third round matches so far, and this one looks much tougher.
Price on the other hand remains in great form, winning eight of his last ten matches and back-to-back Euro Tour titles. Eight of his last ten matches have seen him average over 100 and his worst performance was a 96.6.
Smith Edges H2H
Their H2H is 21-19 to Smith. They have played four times in 2023 and it is 2-2 with Price winning their two most recent matches comfortably, 6-1 and 6-2. When Price does win, he wins by a comfortable margin. In his last ten wins in a leg based format he has won by a combined leg score of 60-24. Only one best of 11 leg match required a deciding leg and six of those seven were under 9.5 legs. Three of his last four wins against Smith have ended 6-2.
Sunday German Darts Grand-Prix Tip: 1 point under 9.5 legs @ 1.95 with Boylesports
Sunday German Darts Grand-Prix Tip: 0.5 point Price to win 6-2 @ 9.00 with Unibet
Keane Barry vs. Berry van Peer
Both players beat their illustrious opponents 6-3 yesterday. Berry beat Josh Rock and Barry beat Rob Cross. Both players play a lot of their darts at a lesser level, Barry on the Development Tour and Berry on the Challenge Tour.
Berry has won three of his last five at senior level, Barry six of his. Van Peer won a Challenge Tour title last month, his first PDC title since a Development Title in 2020. This third round match is his best ever run on the Euro Tour.
There is no H2H form to go on and this is a tough call. Barry is the more experienced at this level but not with much success. Berry has looked very impressive and is tempting at 2.10, but this is a no bet for me.
Sunday German Darts Grand-Prix Tip: No Bet
Dirk van Duijvenbode vs. Danny Noppert
Seconds out, round two. These two last met eight days ago in ET3. Dirk won that one 6-5. Noppert leads the H2H record 6-5 but Dirk has won their last three in a row. There have been easy wins, close matches, 180’s fests, 180 droughts. No patterns to speak of.
Van Duijvenbode is the 1.67 favourite which is fair enough given their H2H record recently. No bet.
Sunday German Darts Grand-Prix Tip: No Bet
Damon Heta vs. Chris Dobey
Heta has won seven of his last ten matches, but without being particularly impressive. In his last six there have been three sub 90 averages and a 90. His 2023 win rate is just 54% and his seasonal average 93.5. That is down from 97.5 at the end of 2022. That is quite a drop in less than four months. Heta has lost at the quarter final stage in the last two ET events, but he faces stiffer opposition here.
Chris Dobey has won six of his last ten matches and his defeats came at the hands of MVG, Aspinall, Noppert and Price. All top flight players. Is Heta one of those, he has been, but right now? I don’t think so.
Dobey is playing the better darts right now, but it is Heta who holds a 3-0 H2H record. They last met in last year’s Gibraltar Darts Trophy and that was a 6-5 win for Heta. Time for Dobey to get a win on the board against Heta.
Sunday German Darts Grand-Prix Tip: 1 point Chris Dobey to win @ 1.83 with Boylesports
Nathan Aspinall vs. Jim Williams
The Asp has lost six of his last ten matches and while he is playing at elite level and scoring well, his consistency leaves something to be desired. He lost 3-6 to Martin Schindler at this stage last week. He is getting very distracted by crowd noise and while there is no obvious crowd favourite here, he looks vulnerable if we get a whistler.
Jim Williams doesn’t make the final day’s play very often and his recent form is not great, losing five of his last ten. He does have a very good A game that we haven’t seen it for a few weeks.
Their H2H record is 3-0 to Aspinall. THE Asp is the 1.54 favourite with Williams 2.75. Those odds look about right but I would not want to be backing Aspinall at a short price given his recent win rate. Williams is no mug and able to take advantage if Aspinall is a bit flat. No bet.
Sunday German Darts Grand-Prix Tip: NO Bet
Dave Chisnall vs. Andrew Gilding
Chizzy has gone from playing sublime darts a couple of weeks ago, to playing quite poorly. He has won six of his last ten matches but his scoring has gone from big ton plus averages to four sub 92’s in his last five. He struggled to beat Dragutin Horvat yesterday and Gilding is a much stronger player.
Goldfinger has won five of his last ten matches and lost 2-6 to Chisnall last week. That was a good day for Chisnall and he hit a ton average. Perhaps Gilding is due to face a poor performance for a change.
Their H2H record is emphatically in Chisnall’s favour. He is 8-3 up and has won their last six in a row. Gilding has not beaten Chizzy since 2015.
Chisnall is the 1.70 favourite which looks generous given that H2H record. However, he isn’t at his best right now and he is too risky to be backing. Gilding doesn’t make enough appeal at 2.20. No bet.
Sunday German Darts Grand-Prix Tip: No Bet
Lee Evans vs. Joe Cullen
Cullen ended our hope of a good run for Ross Smith yesterday, beating Smudger 6-5, but I am not sure how. He was outplayed for most of the match with Smith averaging 100 to Cullen’s 91, but The Rockstar just about did the right thing at the right time. His recent form is not encouraging. He has lost five of his last ten and four of his last five. His scoring has been on the low side.
Evans is loving his Euro Tours. He made the second round last week and has now made the third round, picking up very useful ranking money. His seasonal win rate is 53%, very much in line with Cullen’s 52%. Those low rates mark down both players as not banker material. Evans has lost six of his last ten matches and his scoring is unpredictable at best.
Cullen is the 1.35 favourite with Evans 3.25.
It is just about worth opposing Cullen. His form is not good enough to be a 1.35 favourite and Evans has got a high 90 average in him, on occasions. Small stakes only.
Sunday German Darts Grand-Prix Tip: 0.5 point Lee Evans to win @ 3.25 with Fitzdares, Boylesports
Luke Humphries vs. Jose de Sousa
De Sousa beat Steve Beaton 6-2 yesterday and he was kidding himself on that he had played well. The truth is that he averaged 86.4 and it was Beaton’s very poor doubling which was the difference. De Sousa has won six of his last ten matches, but seven have seen averages below 93. He is beating lesser players and now he faces one of the big boys.
Humphries knocked some of the rust off his game last night with a 6-2 win over Jeffrey de Zwaan. He averaged 99.00 and he wasn’t overly impressed. He should be a bit sharper for playing his first match in three weeks.
Their H2H record is 7-3 to De Sousa but Humphries has won two of their last three. Humphries is still an improving player, and accomplished winner on the Euro Tour, while De Sousa is in decline and struggling with form and confidence.
