2023 Newmarket Guineas Ante-Post Tips – DS
2023 Newmarket Guineas Ante-Post Tips
It is hard to believe that the first two classics of the season are less than a fortnight away. Last year we had no joy in either race but Berkshire Shadow did give us a great run for our money in the 2000 Guineas, finishing just outside the money in 5th at 80/1. We are going to back two horses ante-post today, one for the 2000 Guineas and one for the 1000 Guineas. E/w singles and a small e/w double are recommended, check out our 2023 Newmarket Guineas Ante-Post preview below.
2000 Guineas
First up on Saturday, May 6th is the 2000 Guineas. The weather forecast is looking pretty decent so the ground is most likely going to be on the good side. All of the top seven in the betting, bar Chaldean, will be having their first runs of the season. Chaldean ran most of his trial without a jockey on his back though, so you couldn’t read a whole lot into his performance.
Of the market leaders, Auguste Rodin has been the most hyped. Trained by Aidan O’Brien, who has nominated him as his best chance of landing a Triple Crown, he is by a world class sire in Deep Impact and he is the first foal out of triple G1 winner Rhododendron. This colt was beaten on debut at the Curragh but he hasn’t looked back since.
He made amends in a Naas maiden (7f yld) before going on to win a G2 at Leopardstown (8f sft) and the Vertem Futurity at Donny (8f hvy). If it comes up soft, that won’t be a worry for this lad but if the weather forecast is correct, he’ll be trying to win his first race on nice ground. On breeding, quick conditions should be fine but you don’t know for sure until they actually go and do it and he’s risky at 2/1.
Huge Price
The one that is tempting me at a huge price is the Charlie Johnston trained Dubai Mile. He’s been chalked up at 50/1 for this race, some odds for a horse that already has winning G1 form in the book. That victory came on heavy ground in France at the backend of last season over a trip of 10f. However, he also won twice at a mile last term and he also ran a cracker over C&D in the Royal Lodge in September.
In that four runner G2 he made the pace and after getting headed, he fought back well for 2nd, 0.5L behind The Foxes. He was beat 1.25L by Indestructible here in April on his return to action and Karl Burke’s horse is just 16/1 for this race. On collateral form, Dubai Mile hasn’t much to find with that rival yet he is over triple his odds at 50/1.
Solid Form
By Roaring Lion, a solid 5th in the 2018 renewal of this race, the form of his French G1 win looks solid. Arrest was a head behind him and he’s 6/4 for a Classic Trial on Friday at Sandown and just 20/1 for the Epsom Derby. Those two pulled 6 lengths clear of the rest, headed by Beresford Stakes runner up Adelaide River and French 1000 Guineas runner up Gan Teorainn.
Johnston has said that Dubai Mile’s main aim is the Epsom Derby. However, that is the case for a good few in here and his Dad managed to win this race with Mister Baileys in 1994, a horse that was also having his first run of the season. Johnston is well able to ready one first time up and he’ll want to see a good run from this colt to justify his Derby entry. If it rains, it will enhance his chances but he has already run big on the Rowley Mile on quick ground so at odds of 50/1, Dubai Mile is the e/w selection.
2023 Newmarket Guineas Ante-Post Tip: Dubai Mile e/w @ 50/1
1000 Guineas
There are no doubts about which filly is most overpriced in the 1000 Guineas. Kieran Cotter’s Matilda Picotte has done absolutely nothing wrong in her career to date and how she is as big as 50/1 here is beyond me. Maybe if she were coming into the race having not raced beyond 6f I could understand the bookies’ dismissive position, but she proved she stays at least 7f on her comeback run at Leopardstown.
In that G3 on bottomless ground she was understandably a bit fresh and keen early on. After around 1.5F Whelan got her pretty well settled and she was actually headed by Zarinsk at around the 4f pole. As they turned for home it looked like Zarinsk was travelling all over her, but Whelan got stuck in and Matilda Picotte quickened clear of her and the rest of the field.
Kept On Well
At the 1f pole she had them all bang in trouble, bar the winner Never Ending Story. She eventually came through to win, but Cotter’s filly kept on really well all the way to the line to finish a clear 2nd and she maintained the gap back to the rest of the field at around 2.5L. In my opinion, she definitely stayed all of the 7f trip and if she wasn’t so keen early, she might have won.
On quicker ground, a mile should be well within this filly’s reach. Her sire Sioux Nation has already had a couple of 8f, 3yo winners this year and her half-brother, Sweet Will, will be running over 3 miles at Punchestown this week. She ticks the course form box, having hacked up in a 6f Listed heat here back in October, and the way she ran through the line that day suggested she’d get further.
Strong Form
Her 2yo form stands up to scrutiny too. She was only 1.75L behind Meditate in a Naas G3 on her second start and that filly is the 4/1 fav for this. She beat Mawj by a neck when finishing 3rd in the Lowther and she should finish a lot closer to Never Ending Story on better ground with that last run under her belt. Her preparation for the 1000 Guineas has reportedly gone really well and once there is good in the ground description, Matilda Picotte is capable of running a massive race at odds of 50/1.
