2023 Azerbaijan GP Sprint Race Preview & Tips – JP
2023 Azerbaijan GP Sprint Race Preview
Our F1 expert James Punt has already landed a lovely winner this weekend. He fancied Leclerc to take pole in qualifying yesterday and the Monaco man delivered. James likes two bets for the 2023 Azerbaijan GP Sprint Race, see what he is backing below.
2023 Azerbaijan GP Sprint Race
Well, Sprint qualifying was remarkably like, normal qualifying. Who would have thought. We now move on to the Petit Prix, and while it is just 17 laps long, it will tell us broadly what is likely to happen for what is supposed to be the main event tomorrow.
Charles Leclerc continues to dominate qualifying at Baku. Today was his fourth pole position but he has never finished better than 4th here. The pole position driver in Baku has only won two of the six previous races. Multiple safety cars, red flags and a long straight on which it is hard to defend does make this a tough track for pole sitters.
Leclerc has both Red Bulls directly behind him and while the Bulls have been slow off the line this season, they have had little problem in passing anyone in front. This track looks ideal for effective deployment of an efficient DRS and Red Bull have the most potent one, gaining some 10 kmph over Ferrari on the straight.
Red Bull Battle
The real battle is likely to be between the two Red Bulls. Perez starts second and he will be looking to get ahead of Leclerc quickly and hope that the Ferrari can then hold up Verstappen long enough to allow him to get out of DRS range from Verstappen. He managed it in Jeddah but Max was coming from way back that day. He may not even get the chance if Max can jump him at the start.
Charles Leclerc is the 2.50 favourite and odds on with many firms. Why? I refer you to the record of the pole sitter and the results of the first three races of the season. Red Bull have had the best race car so far, but not so much in qualifying.
They are setting up for the race, for the big points. Ferrari needed something to stop the rot and general malaise within the team. A couple of pole positions can make it look like progress has been made, but do they have the race pace to resist two Red Bulls?
Real Progress Ferrari?
Ferrari said that real progress had been made in terms of race pace in Melbourne. But was that compared to Aston Martin and Mercedes? Red Bull remain a fair chunk ahead of the best of the rest. Tyre degradation has been a problem for Ferrari but perhaps a short race which is still likely to see safety cars will make this less of an issue. But still, the basic question is, does Leclerc have the pace to beat two Red Bulls with their super powerful DRS? I have to doubt it.
So if not Leclerc, which Red Bull? They are racing for points, 8 for the race winner down to 1 point for the driver finishing 8th. It is Perez who needs as many as possible if he is to close the 15 point deficit to Verstappen. Will Red Bull want their two drivers fighting for a win? If they are running 1-2, there seems little point. There is only 1 point difference between 1st and 2nd, and the risk reward equation suggests that holding station is wise, but Max doesn’t like helping his teammates.
Toss Up
Verstappen can be backed at 3.20 and Perez at 5.50. It is a bit of a toss-up but I’ll have a go with Perez due to his great track record, but Verstappen is very backable at the odds. The odds on Leclerc look wrong. Yes, if this was Monaco I would agree, but this is a track where overtaking is much easier. Red Bull can be backed at 2.10 to be the winning manufacturer and that definitely looks on the generous side.
Of course, we could just have a big crash fest like the F2 race and then it’s just a lottery.
