2023 Miami GP Raceday Update

Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2023 Miami GP Raceday Update.

2023 Miami GP Raceday Preview

Yesterday’s qualifying session ended up like a game of pass the parcel. Leclerc crashed late in Q3 which stopped the action and drivers were left stranded with Sergio Perez left holding the prize. The result is a very mixed up grid.

Perez will start from pole position but he never looked like getting it on merit. He has been second best to Verstappen all weekend and a second row start looked likely for him. Alonso starts second and he looked good for a third row start at best. At least Carlos Sainz is just about where he looked like starting in third place.

Haas get their best ever GP start position with Magnussen in fourth place. The Alpines both go into Q3 and start fifth and eighth. Sadly for our qualy match bet, it is Gasly in fifth. Ocon was one of the drivers on his flying lap and improving but he had to abort it.

Max Mistake

Championship leader Max Verstappen had made a mistake earlier, then got caught out by Leclerc’s crash and he starts from a lowly ninth place. The top 10 is rounded out by Valtteri Bottas in the erstwhile useless Alfa Romeo. Drivers out of position in the bottom half of the grid are Lewis Hamilton in thirteenth, and Hulkenberg in twelfth. The two McLarens failed to make it out of Q1 in a shocking performance so far.

It all looks set for a fascinating race. And I haven’t mentioned the weather forecast. Hot and humid with a 40% chance of a shower. It is more likely to be dry, but there is a chance that we could see some rain, and rain on a new piece of tarmac could result in skid pan conditions.

It should be exciting enough without any sky juice. Rain fell this morning in Miami but the forecast was for a higher chance of morning rain that afternoon. The track received a real soaking last night, however, which may well have washed off much of the rubber laid down so far, greening up the track again.

Fascinating Prospect

It really is a fascinating prospect. Perez has got lucky, arguably for the second weekend in a row. He needs to cash in, he should cash in, but it might not be straightforward. He wasn’t looking particularly competitive in practice, he was improving session by session, but he was comfortably shy of Verstappen and in qualifying he was looking vulnerable to the two Ferraris.

The Red Bull has not been quick off the line in any of the races so far, but it hasn’t really mattered. The fantastic race pace and powerful DRS means they can pick off any opposition with relative ease. This track is said to be very hard to overtake on but the long straight looks ideal for a DRS pass.

Alonso A Fast Starter

Last week we saw little overtaking in Baku but the Red Bull was the exception. Alonso is lightening off the line and muscular. He knows it is probably a useless task, but he will want to take the lead and dream of the race win.

We saw Perez and Alonso line up on the front row in Jeddah and the Spaniard got the jump there and held off the Mexican for three laps. He might make Perez wait a bit longer on this track, but he will need Perez to have a problem if he is to have any chance to win. Alonso starts on the ‘wrong side’ of the track but he’ll give it a go.

2023 Miami GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Alonso to be first lap leader @ 4.00 with Pokerstars

Can Max Verstappen mount a challenge to his teammate? He will try but it will be very hard. The first problem is that he starts in ninth place and it will take him a fair amount of time to get through the pack on this track. Alonso reckons in will take Verstappen 24 laps before he passes the Aston Martin. He is a good judge.

We saw Verstappen start from fifteenth place in Jeddah and it took him 22 laps to get to second place. When he got there, he wasn’t able to lay a glove on Perez, and that was the case in Baku last weekend. Perez got out of DRS range and just managed the gap.

Tyre Care

Perez is a master of looking after his tyres, and he has worked hard on that aspect of his game in recent months. He wasn’t able to manage the tyres as effectively as he did at Force India, but he and his engineers have corrected that.

Being in clean air also helps and he is in a good position to pace himself, look after his car and the tyres, while Max will have to push hard. The torrential rain of last night might have put the track right back to being a very green one lacking grip.

The new track surface has been low in grip, it was improving, but off the racing line, it was still glassy. Verstappen might have to go offline to make overtakes stick and that comes with some added risk.

Perez heads The Market

Perez is the 1.91 favourite to win the race, Verstappen 3.00. Verstappen says that second place is the very least he expects, so he concedes that Perez’ head start may be enough once again. The odds for a Red Bull 1-2 are odds on, so the market expects Verstappen to make it through. Ladbrokes have Perez to win at 1.91 but a Red Bull 1-2 at 1.90.

I’ll take a chance on Perez. Verstappen has been a bit out of sorts and grumpy. It was his mistake that caused him to mess up his first run in Q3 and he then lost out to the red flag. To see his teammate now on pole will be galling and he can get a bit hot headed which might not be a good idea on a tricky track.

He also has some drivers to get past who are not going to move over meekly. When he gets to George Russell, that will be interesting. Perez is not as fast as Max but he is much happier with the car this season and he is driving at the top of his game. If tyre management comes to the fore, you want Perez in your car.

2023 Miami GP Raceday Tip: 2 points Sergio Perez to win @ 1.91 with Ladbrokes, Hills

the rest of the field

Ferrari

Their upgrade looks to have made a some difference, but not closed the gap. How they go in the race is of more importance. The car is quick over one lap but its race pace was not great. Today is the acid test.

There were some mixed messages yesterday. Leclerc had complained that the medium tyre was going off relatively early, but they were making good use of the soft in qualifying, setting good times after five laps. Leclerc starts from seventh, with three potentially slower cars ahead of him.

Carlos Sainz doesn’t have any such problems from third place and he is much happier in the car than he was last weekend. If he can manage the tyres a podium is possible but Alonso and Verstappen will have something to say about that. Leclerc starts 7th but he has crashed twice already this weekend and is hard to fancy. He says that he is to blame for choosing a very aggressive set up and he is stuck with it for the race now.

Aston Martin

They have Alonso starting second and Stroll starting eighteenth. The team took a gamble to use just one set of soft tyres in Q1 but with the track evolving so quickly, Stroll found himself stranded. He has the car to move up the order, he is a good starter and any rain would help.

Last year Stroll started from the pit lane and finished 10th, Ocon started 20th and finished 8th, and so it can be done. Both were helped by Alonso getting two 5 second penalties which knocked him from 8th to 11th.

Alonso is 1.62 to finish on the podium for the fourth time this season, but I’d rather take Stroll to repeat his heroics of last year and make it into the points. They have improved their top speed performance with the new rear wing introduced in Baku, and that was a big weakness that would have shown up here. They are still at the lower end of the spectrum, but their race pace is usually good.

Haas

Have an upgraded floor for this weekend and it does seem to have improved the car. Fourth on the grid for Magnussen was not on the menu however, but certainly they looked good enough to reach Q3. How will they get on in the race? Hard to say.

Hulkenberg has had three starts around 10th place and only converted one into a points finish, in the chaotic Australian GP. If the new floor has improved race pace, then points are there to be had. Magnussen thinks 7th or 8th is possible if everything goes perfectly.

The car showed good straight line speed, which will help them defend on the long straight, and it just comes down to a bit of luck and tyre management. Magnussen is 1.62 to finish in the points and Hulkenberg 2.75.

Alpine

Had the weekend from hell last weekend, but it has all come together much better this time. Ocon was one of the losers in the Leclerc red flag incident and they looked on course to have both in the top 6. A double points finish is on the cards so long as their bad luck has come to an end. Odds of just 1.85 are a bit short however.

A top six finish for Gasly looks possible, but they were not that great on the straights with top speeds, better only than Alpha Tauri. They are close on top speeds with Aston Martin, Mercedes and Haas, but well shy of Red Bull. They are generating good downforce and like Aston Martin, could be very good if it rained.

Mercedes

Have looked poor on a track I thought may have helped their car. Lewis missed out on Q3 just through a lack of performance. George did and was one of the lottery winners in the red flag incidence.

Their main problem is with top speeds, just middling, and the rest of its performance is poor. The team don’t really know why they were so poor, but in essence, the car is very hard to set up, and it has a tiny sweet spot. The race pace should be better, says Hamilton, but it will need to be just to be respectable.

Alfa Romeo

have shown a surprising turn of pace. It appears that the upgrade they brought to Melbourne has suddenly started working. The car showed good traction and decent top speeds. Track specific or better understanding of the car perhaps, but Bottas might be able to score a point.

He is 3.00 to do so, but the thoughts of backing an Alfa Romeo after recent races feels wrong. Bottas said he was unlucky with the red flag and he had the pace to qualify higher (he was 7th in FP3). One for the brave.

Williams

Were second only to Red Bull in terms of top speed which is useful here. Their problem is that their race pace is short of their one lap pace. Albon starts 11th and will do well to finish as high up.

McLaren

Failed to get either car out of Q1 and it wasn’t bad luck. The car is just slow. Hot conditions got some of the blame, which is a worry with summer in Europe coming up.

Alpha Tauri

Are going to struggle on a track with a long straight and another long flat out sector. They are bottom of this pile in terms of top speed and the only positive is that Devries got out of Q1. He was flattered by Lance Stroll’s demise.

Further Race Day Bets

We have had the three bets above and with the threat of rain about, it might be wise to play conservatively but I’ll take a chance with these.

2023 Miami GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Gasly to finish in the top 6 @ 3.00 with Hills, Skybet, BET365

Gasly is also a good looking price to beat Hamilton. Ladbrokes go 2.20 which is a bit mad, but two bets on one car usually ends in tears.

2023 Miami GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Hulkenberg to beat Norris @ 1.73 with Ladbrokes

Hulkenberg has top 10 pace, the McLarens couldn’t even get out of Q1.

2023 Miami GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Kevin Magnussen to win Group 2 @ 2.50 with Ladbrokes

Magnussen is grouped with Lance Stroll, Lando Norris and Nico Hulkenberg. He starts 4th and while he’ll likely drop back, Hulkenberg starts 12th, Norris 16th and Stroll 18th. That is some head start for a car that has looked pretty good so far.

-JamesPunt