2023 Monaco GP Outright Betting Preview – JP
2023 Monaco GP Outright Betting Preview
Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2023 Monaco GP outright betting preview.
2023 Monaco GP Preview
After the cancellation of last weekend’s race, F1 gets back to work at the iconic Monaco street circuit. It would have been useful to have seen the cars drive at Imola, a classic old school circuit which would have given us more pointers for the European races this summer.
It was also going to be where the first Mercedes upgrade was to get a run out and on a proper racetrack with three free practice sessions, a lot of useful data would have been generated. Now, they will have to introduce it at the slowest, most unrepresentative track on the calendar. I wonder what kind of value the data will provide to help Mercedes with their ‘learnings’?
The 2023 Monaco GP Circuit
We all know the Monaco circuit. It is a short 3.33 km lap featuring 19 corners and not much in the way of straights. It is a very busy lap for the drivers who need to be very precise in order to get their best lap in without hitting the barriers.
There is a token DRS zone on the start – finish straight but this is not a circuit for overtaking. It is not really fit for purpose. The modern day F1 cars are just too big to actually race on the track and it is more of an exercise in qualifying laps and then trying not to hit the walls for 78 laps.
Qualifying Important
Obviously qualifying pace is very important here, but don’t think that the pole driver is nailed on to win. The nature of the track means that safety car deployments are very likely and this throws in a random factor which can change the running order. In the turbo hybrid era there have been eight races here and only three have been won from pole position, but none from lower than third.
It is also a track where the drivers’ input is of greater importance than at most. It is more of a drivers’ track than a pure car track. Its unique lay out is a bit of a leveller as the fastest car can be beaten.
Red Bull Fastest
The Red Bull is the fastest car and will still be favourite to win, but this race gives the chasing pack their best chance to beat the Bulls. With so many corners on a short lap, Red Bulls’ straight line speed advantage is not so important.
With just one short DRS zone, their class leading DRS system is of little use. The car still produces a lot of efficient downforce so it is not going to be anything other than competitive, but it may not be quite as dominant as at the previous tracks we have raced on so far in 2023.
Fernando Alonso has been waiting for this race since the start of the season. The Ferrari is already much closer to Red Bull in qualifying than in the races so we should expect them to be in a position to win. They will probably screw up any chance that does arise, but you never know.
2023 Monaco GP: Driver Records
As a ‘drivers’ circuit’ looking at driver’s past performance here is much more important than usual. Some drivers thrive on tight, twisty tracks with barriers close by, others hit the barriers or have to go slower to avoid doing so.
When you look at the list of repeat winners it is a who’s who of F1 royalty. Ayrton Senna won six times around the streets of Monaco, Graham Hill and Michael Schumacher five times, Alain Prost won four, while Hamilton, Rosberg, Stewart and Moss all won three times. Two time winners include Fangio, Lauda, Vettel and Alonso.
It must be said that there are no true Monaco greats on the grid this year. There are four past winners and three former pole sitters, but only Lewis Hamilton has won more than two Monaco GPs.
Hamilton Likes This Track
Lewis Hamilton has three wins, four other podiums and one pole position. That is from fifteen races, so clearly his is the best record, but Hamilton has, by and large, been in very competitive cars. Compared to his records elsewhere however, Monaco is not his best. He has always got his car home which is impressive in itself.
Fernando Alonso has a decent record. He has won twice, albeit the last time was in 2007, and he has two other podiums and two pole positions. Not a bad record, but he has raced here eighteen times. He simply hasn’t had the car in recent years, which is a reminder that while this is a drivers’ track, you still need a good car to win.
Max Verstappen has one win and a third place with no pole positions. It took him a while to get the hang of Monaco and he failed to finish in his first three attempts. Sergio Perez got his one win here last year and he got a podium for Force India in 2016. He has only scored points in four of his eleven races around Monaco. Not a great return for a driver known for being a good street racer and one that is a steady deliverer of points.
Leclerc At Home
Many of the drivers are Monaco residents but Charles Leclerc is a Monégasque, born and bred. It is his ambition to win his home race but his record is mixed. He has qualified on pole position twice but has only finished in the points once, a fourth place last year having started from pole position. He has been guilty of trying too hard at times and also the victim of his own team’s incompetence.
His teammate, Carlos Sainz, has finished second for the last two years and he has always finished in the top 10 in all of his seven starts. He is an underrated driver and his record here is impressive.
Lando Norris has only started three GPs here and finished 11/3/6, while Bottas has only manged a single podium despite having the best car for many years. Pierre Gasly has a decent record with form figures of 7/5/6/11.
The Weather Forecast
Rain is often a feature of this race, as it was last year. Clearly, it massively increases the chance of crashes and safety cars and crazy randomness. I would rather it is a dry 2023 Monaco GP. I must be getting old.
Rain is almost always in the forecasts here but rain actually falling in the race less so. I have spent a lot of time trying to guess the weather here and it not easy. Monaco has something of a microclimate and we often get cloudy conditions over hills surrounding the principality, but any rain often stays over those hills.
Take forecasts of rain with at least a few grains of salt. Mind you, last year looked set to be dry for the race but it poured so hard just before the race that start was suspended and track side electronics packed up.
Will It Rain?
This year’s forecasts have indeed got rain in them, but the chances of any rain has subsided as the week has gone one. Friday and Saturday now look very likely to be dry with just a 5% chance of any showers, that increases to 25% on Sunday afternoon, but that is 75% chance of being dry for the optimists.
If it does rain, we have new rule in place for the 2023 Monaco GP. Wet weather tyres will not be allowed to be pre-heated in their warm-up blankets. Going out on a wet street circuit with cold tyres would be…. interesting.
We are still a few days out, posting the preview on Thursday and qualifying not being until Saturday, the race on Sunday, so we are taking a punt not just on the drivers, but the weather. What to do depends on your attitude to risk.
The risk is lower if you leave your bet placement until the last possible minute, not that that would have helped last year. Leaving it late may mean missing the best odds. However, I am much happier with the forecast than I was a couple of days ago when qualifying looked set to be wet.
Who may be suited to Monaco?
All eyes will be on the Mercedes garage this weekend, waiting to see what the upgraded car looks like. Will the zero pods have gone? Will it be a Red Bull copy, or will it be a more modest change?
I suspect the latter. Mercedes have put the wheels in motion for the 2024 car, and that might be a Red Bull inspired design, but it is less likely that Mercedes will have had the time or capacity to under the cost cap to have done a complete redesign.
This will be an exercise in getting the most of what they have got. The car has decent race pace, not in the same league as the Red Bull, but competitive with Ferrari and Aston Martin and better than the rest.
Lack of Understanding
It is clear that they have never really understood their own car. It hasn’t done what it should have done and Mercedes have not been able to understand why. They should have binned it last year but they have made their bed and will have to lie in it until the new bed is ready next year.
This upgrade will be another attempt to understand the car, to make the sweet spot a bit bigger and more predictable. Early sightings suggest a revised suspension lay out as well as revised body work. Ferrari style side pods are in evidence, rather than the Red Bull concept. This may be because they cannot accommodate their side impact bars into a Red Bull style sidepod.
The suspension change is to allow for a better anti-dive set up, and that is more of a Red Bull idea. This allows the car to run lower and that in turn improves downforce.
First Step
The team have said that this is the first step in a different development direction that will take them back to being championship contenders in the ‘long term’. That sounds like expectation management, but also being realistic in terms of the time scale required to close the gap to the standard setting Red Bull.
Clearly the car’s strength has been its race pace but it has been a poor qualifier. If that pattern continues this could be a painful weekend for them. It isn’t impossible to have a good result here starting in the midfield, but it is very hard.
Hamilton’s average qualifying position in 2023 is 7.20, with a best of 3rd and worst of 13th. George Russell has done a better job, averaging 5.80. It could be that the upgrade will address this lack of one lap pace, but it is going to be a strange weekend for Mercedes.
Data Gathering Key
They will need to get the car out on track and start testing the new parts and gathering data. If there is one track where you would NOT want to be introducing a raft of new parts it would be Monaco. It is so easy to make a small mistake and hit the wall, smashing up valuable new parts, especially if you are driving a car that may feel quite different to drive than it has all season.
I am surprised they are going ahead with introducing their upgrades here, especially as the next race is at Barcelona, the home of F1 testing.
Red Bull
They remain the team to beat but they will face some threats this weekend. Their car is a little slow to heat up the front tyres in qualifying and with Monaco being so slow, the heating up problem could be worse. It was last year and they were having to do multiple warm up laps before being ready to go for a flier.
They have had it all their own way in the races so far, but in qualifying the gaps have been closer and it was Leclerc who was on pole (twice) at Baku. There are no long straights for the Red Bull to breeze past opponents so their advantages are blunted.
If they cannot qualify on pole position, they will face the same problems as ever at the 2023 Monaco GP. How to get past a car in front. Neither driver has a stunning record here and while they remain favourites, you are seeing odds against quotes for the two drivers in qualifying and the race.
Aston Martin
Normally the Spanish GP is held before the Monaco GP and the twisty final sector at Barcelona provided a good guide as to whose car would be suited to the demands on the Monaco circuit. We do not have that luxury this year but Aston Martin have a car that has been a match for Red Bull in the corners but can’t live with them on the straights. This track should in theory bring them much closer to the Red Bull.
Alonso has a good track record, (Stroll doesn’t) and he can be considered as a realistic contender for the race win at best and a podium finisher at worst. Alonso’s average qualifying position is 4.00, joint best with Charles Leclerc, and his race pace has been better with an average finishing position of 3.20. Alonso has had four third places from the first five races and he is the obvious candidate for a non-Red Bull winner.
Ferrari
Their qualifying pace puts their two drivers into the frame as well. Charles Leclerc has a 50% strike rate when it comes to getting the pole position here but he is yet to finish better than 4th. The unfancied Carlos Sainz has finished 2nd here for the last two years and his qualifying performances in 2023 sees an average of 4.20. He has been steady if unspectacular.
Sometimes just being in the right place at the right time is enough to get a result at Monaco and Sainz is one of those drivers who puts himself in those positions.
First Upgrade
Ferrari introduced their first upgrade in Miami and that illustrated that an upgrade does not automatically make a huge difference to performance. It was another first step and that weekend gave them valuable track time with which to gather data and understand how the new floor was working.
This weekend may see the second step. The planned upgrades for last weekend’s upgrade was to be above the ground level with revised bodywork.
The drivers had complained that the way the car delivered its downforce was unpredictable, especially in the faster corners. It was hard to drive with confidence. The redesigned floor and associated parts are designed to make the downforce more predictable across the full range of corners. It may not actually reduce total downforce, but just spread it more evenly. That way the drivers will know what to expect and have more confidence in it.
Effective Upgrade
The team say that the first upgrades worked as they were expected to. The fact that Charles Leclerc kept on crashing in Miami was a bit of a head scratcher. Ferrari say that it was just the result of Leclerc pushing too hard with his newly found confidence. Well…make of that what you will.
It was just step one and all these updates are part of a program. The revised body work will be the next step to reduce drag and increase downforce. There was new suspension as part of the Imola upgrade but that has been put on ice for this weekend.
While Mercedes have said that they will go ahead with all their upgrades, it is not clear if Ferrari will, and that goes for all the teams. They will have track specific high downforce set ups but actual upgrades, maybe they will be held back until Barcelona.
No High Speed Corners
The Ferrari has struggled in high speed corners and the absence of those here is an automatic plus for Ferrari. Their slow corner pace, like Aston Martin is good (the best according to some experts) and this track does look a good fit for them. Another pole for Charles Leclerc? Very possibly.
He does tend to be very much on the edge and does push things too far on occasions, but he has proven himself in qualifying here before and got ‘both’ pole positions at the Baku street circuit a few weeks ago.
2023 Monaco GP Tip: 2 points Charles Leclerc to be the fastest qualifier @ 3.00 with Unibet, Skybet
Alpha Tauri
Have a poor car this year and its slow corner pace has been poor. Their Imola upgrade was all about addressing that so I do expect them to bring their upgrade here as Monaco is all about slow corners. They will get plenty of relevant data and hopefully better performance. Do not be surprised to see an uptick in the relative pace of the Alpha Tauris this weekend.
Tsunoda has been remarkably consistent in 2023, in the races at least. He has finished 10th or 11th in every race so far, so maybe the upgrade can push him into a points finishing position. His teammate, Nyck de Vries, is on a warning. Improve or be sacked so the pressure is on him for the next few races if he is to hold on to his drive.
2023 Monaco GP Tip: 1 point Yuki Tsunoda to finish in the points @ 3.00 generally available
McLaren
Introduced upgrades in Baku and Miami. That just took them to what should have been their launch spec car. The upgrade was centred around the floor and the verdict was that it has increased downforce.
However, the car’s performance, or lack of, in Miami suggests that they still have a heap of work to do. It still lacks grip under braking and traction under acceleration, two things that you want to have here.
The team are now saying that they are stymied by not having state of the art facilities, especially in the wind tunnel department. They have a brand new one due to come on stream this summer but that is not going to help them now. A case of a bad workman blaming his tools? Perhaps, but it seems the problems at McLaren are myriad.
Lando Norris’ body language is that of a man who signed a long term contract with the wrong team. Their next set of upgrades will come in three races time in Canada. Their lack of straight line speed will not be a big problem here and they might show better form than in Miami, but the competition is intense in the battle for the minor points.
Alfa Romeo
Have a car whose strength lies in slow corner performance. That was the case last year and much was expected of them here. In the end Bottas finished 9th, Zhou 16th. This year’s car is not great. Bottas scored an 8th place finish in the opening race in Bahrain and Zhou a very lucky 9th in Australia. That’s it.
Bottas’ record here is a bit disappointing given how long he was in the Mercedes. Monaco wasn’t its greatest track, the long wheelbase was not a good fit with the confines of Monaco. It is a very tough market with four teams being that bit better than the rest. We have backed Tsunoda and that is enough for me.
Alpine
A team under pressure from within. Their CEO basically called them a bunch of losers and he has something of a point. A top four finish in the Constructor’s Championship, closer to the big three was the target, but currently they sit 6th and already 54 points off 4th place.
They do not have the pace to join the top four on merit but they do have a car that looks 5th best, so they should be hunting for points. They had a double points finish in Saudi Arabia and Miami. Alpine should have had a double points finish in Melbourne but their two drivers collided and cost them a stack of points. That hurt. Management are trying to sell a share of the team to AutoNation and their position in the table is depressing the value of the share.
Points On The Card?
The car looks a decent performer on most tracks, slow corner speed is fine and with a clear weekend they should get one or both drivers in the points. Both are 1.57 to do so which is no great value. Pierre Gasly has enjoyed some good races here with two top six places from four starts.
The problem is that Ferrari, Aston Martin and Red Bull look likely to fill the top 6 places. Mercedes are a bit more of an unknown given their relatively poor qualifying pace and the fact they will have an upgraded car. Clearly, Gasly would need a bit of luck to have a top 6 finish. His odds of 5.50 are not big enough to take the risk.
Also Rans
Williams have a car that is low on downforce but good on straights. That is not a combination that is going to suit Monaco. Haas are harder to call. They have shown some good qualifying pace, not least Magnussen’s 4th in qualifying last time out in Miami. Hulkenberg has reached Q3 twice but their race pace isn’t so good. If they can stick a car well into Q3, points are possible but still unlikely on merit.
The Race
Cards on the table. I think the fastest car this weekend will be the Ferrari. Baku saw Charles Leclerc get the pole position in both qualifying sessions. The Baku circuit features plenty of slow corners which suited their car, but it also features an enormous flat out straight which was Red Bull territory. That Leclerc managed to be faster than the two Red Bulls despite the long straight tells us that their slow corner pace was very strong.
With no long straight at the 2023 Monaco GP, everything looks set for Leclerc to get his third pole position in his home race. Any rain for the qualifying session would cool my enthusiasm for Leclerc. He can be guilty of pushing too hard at times and in the rain, the risk of going over the edge is that bit greater. The threat of rain has receded so it looks a better prospect.
Pole Not Pivotal
Starting from pole at Monaco is NOT the end of the story. People will say that the race is decided on Saturday, but history says otherwise. You do still need to be very near the front. For the last eight races here in the turbo hybrid era, the winner has come from the top three on the grid, but only thrice from pole.
Charles started from pole last year and finished 4th. That was due to another Ferrari strategy howler. Things just haven’t happened right for Leclerc at home. He has overdriven at times and if he has a fault it is that he makes more mistakes than he should. This is a track that doesn’t allow mistakes.
Sainz Overlooked
The guy in the other Ferrari is getting completely overlooked. Carlos Sainz is a wise old head, a driver that tends to get the car home. He has had seven races here for various teams and always finished in the points. He has finished 2nd twice, both in the last two years, both for Ferrari. It is his best track in a Ferrari.
He has not been entirely happy with being comfortable with his car but he has worked on it as is his way, and he gets there in the end. He is not as fast over a lap as Leclerc, not many are, but his strength is in getting the most out of the car on Sunday.
Consistent Qualifier
Sainz has been consistent in qualifying with an average of 4.20. He has not been worse than 5th and if the Ferrari is going to be as well suited as I hope, he should be top 3 on the grid and that is in the winner’s zone. Sainz is also a good wet weather driver so any rain would not worry me.
We backed him at big odds to get pole in Russia in 2021. Rain was forecast and he set the fastest time in the wet. He was pipped for pole by Lando Norris on the final Q3 run as the track dried out.
Alonso A Contender
Fernando Alonso will be a popular pick this weekend and with good reason. Like Ferrari, their car will be better suited to this track than with any we have raced on so far in 2023. He has finished 3rd four times and 4th in the other race. Consistency on a stick.
On the downside, the Ferrari is a bit quicker in slow corners so Alonso is still going to be in a slower car. He is another driver whose chances may improve if there is rain.
2023 Monaco GP Ante Post Odds
Max Verstappen is the 2.25 favourite for the 2023 Monaco GP, Perez 4.50, Leclerc 6.00, Alonso 8.00 and Sainz 34.00.
Two drivers’ odds stand out. Verstappen being odds against for the first time in a while, and Carlos Sainz, or to give him his full name, Carlos Sainz Vázquez de Castro Cenamor Rincón Rebollo Virto Moreno de Aranda Don Per Urrielagoiria Pérez del Pulga.
Sainz is being dismissed virtually out of hand. He is never going to be favourite, but if it turns out that the Ferrari is the fastest car around Monaco, his odds are far too big. It is likely to be very competitive between the five drivers listed above. All are in with a chance in my book and the odds that look most wrong belong to Sainz.
Three Places e/w
There is more good news. We have two bookmakers who are offering three places for e/w betting and not the usual two. This makes Carlos a much more attractive proposition.
He is a best priced 4.25 to finish on the podium and odds of 29.00 getting 1/5th the odds 1-3 places looks very decent value to me. Hopefully a top three is achievable, and he has been 2nd for the last two here.
A win cannot be dismissed quite as easily as the bookmakers are doing and I think it is worth including the possibility. BET365 are going 23.00 the top 3 for e/w bets but new kids on the block, LivescoreBet are going 29.00. They have some interesting F1 markets, so it’s worth having a look.
