2023 Monaco GP Qualifying Update and Tips – JP
2023 Monaco GP Qualifying Update
Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2023 Monaco GP Qualifying Update. You can see his outright betting preview here.
2023 Monaco GP Qualifying Update
The free practice sessions have finished and we are ready for the important qualifying session. FP1 and FP2 gave everyone some hope that we could see something other than a Red Bull dominated race weekend. FP3 has put a bit of a damper on that.
The session finished under a red flag which did cloud the picture somewhat, but it was Red Bull 1st and 2nd. The Aston Martin of Lance Stroll was third, 0.166 off Verstappen’s time. Alonso had set the fastest first sector time when the red flag was thrown. Clearly, he remains in the mix.
Ferrari Step Backwards
We have nailed our colours to the Ferrari mast and things were looking good yesterday, but today they have taken a step backwards. Sainz ended up 4th but he was nearly half a second off Verstappen’s time, a huge gap on this short lap.
Leclerc was worse, back in 7th place. He wasn’t able to set a fast time due to the two red flags late in the session but both cars were having to lift off the throttle through the swimming pool section and the lap time just wasn’t there.
A set up change that has gone wrong? If so, they might be able to revert to yesterday’s set up and try again. Charles was getting very agitated and it is Carlos Sainz who has looked the better of the two so far.
If Ferrari can find a set up change we might have a three team fight for pole, but it looks more like the two Red Bulls vs. Alonso.
Alonso In The Mix?
Lance Stroll has not been able to lay a glove on Alonso in qualifying this season. The Spaniard is 5-0 and an average of 5.4 places behind him on the grid. That he was able to get to within 0.166 of Verstappen suggests that Alonso would have been in the mix at the very least.
We have already had a 2 pointer on Leclerc which now looks like being a loser unless Ferrari can find out what was so wrong today. Verstappen remains odds against despite being fastest in FP2 & 3. He is a 2.25 shot, Perez 7.00, Alonso 6.00, Leclerc 4.50 and Sainz 12.00.
Perez cannot be dismissed and that price is with a firm going e/w the top 3, but my vote goes to Alonso. He has always said the his Aston Martin is an easy car to drive. It does what is asked to do and he has confidence in it. That can’t be said for the Ferrari.
Push Hard
Alonso will be able to push it really hard with a much less chance of going beyond the car’s limits. Today gives him his best chance of pole, perhaps his only chance all season. He knows that he can put himself in a position to win the race if he does so. He will be right up for this.
Is the car ultimately fast enough to beat the Bulls? It will be very close and the odds are worth taking.
2023 Monaco GP Qualifying Tip: 1 point Fernando Alonso to be the fastest qualifier @ 6.00 generally available
The two red flags did cloud the full picture and there were drivers who just didn’t get to get a flying lap just as the track was ramping up at the end of the session. Lance Stroll did, as did Norris and Gasly. They are likely to have been flattered by quicker drivers not getting their laps in.
However, Norris has been top 7 in every session so he has found a good set up and the draggy McLaren is not as badly handicapped as usual. That Piastri has not been better than 17th is a cause for concern for a driver who the team were saying is World Champion material earlier in the week.
Ocon and Gasly look to be in a position to make Q3. Bottas is on the cusp of Q3 along with George Russell. He has struggled in all three sessions and is being put in the shade by Hamilton who is much happier with the upgraded Mercedes. He did stuff it in the wall late in the session but it wasn’t badly damaged so the team will be able to fix it in time.
Match Bets
Match betting wise there are a couple of interesting wagers.
Lando Norris has been on it from FP1, says he is loving it and is comfortable with the car. His fifth place may have been a bit flattering but he looks set to make Q3 for just the second time, the other being at Baku, another street circuit. In fact, McLaren got both cars in Q3 there.
So far this weekend, George Russell has struggled. His 11th place today was his best session and while he was quicker today, he has been really struggling while Hamilton has been quite quick. It is very close in the midfield and any small mistakes can be costly, but I’ll take Norris to get the better of Russell.
2023 Monaco GP Qualifying Tip: 1 point Lando Norris to out qualify George Russell @ 2.00 with Ladbrokes
Norris is going well, but there is a limit to the McLaren and I think Norris has found it. Lance Stroll and Norris both got a flying lap on new softs in the last session and Stroll was 0.454 seconds faster than Norris. That is a huge gap on this lap. The Aston Martin is a better car than the McLaren and it took a set up change to get Stroll comfortable. He isn’t as good a driver as Norris, but he has a better tool.
