2023 Spanish GP Preview

Last weekend didn’t go to plan and lady luck most certainly wasn’t on our side. The circus now rolls into Catalunya for the 2023 Spanish GP and it looks like it could be another good weekend for Red Bull. James Punt will have qualifying and raceday updates, his outright betting preview for the 2023 Spanish GP is below.

2023 Spanish GP

The Monaco GP was a disaster punting wise. A total wipe out. Sainz started the weekend well but he went backwards at every opportunity after that. Ocon was a case of close but no cigar. Tsunoda was doing fine but suffered a brake problem during the race which knocked him out of the points.

Alonso missed pole position by less than a tenth of a second, Leclerc was just behind him and Norris being blocked on his final qualifying run ruined his chances of winning the match bet. It was horrible.

The 2023 Spanish GP Track

Monaco is not a race that taught us too much, but the same cannot be said for Barcelona. No other track has seen as much testing as the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya. The venue was used so much not just because the weather is normally good and it is reasonably close to the various team’s bases. It was used because its lay out tests every aspect of a car’s performance.

It has slow corners, fast corners, long duration corners, right handed corners, left handed corners and long straights. It’s said that if your car goes well here, it will go well just about anywhere.

The circuit has been modified since last year. The fiddly chicane at the end of the lap has been replaced by a fast right handed corner which makes the track more flowing, faster and the track slightly shorter. The lap time should be reduced by a two or three seconds.

Overtaking Not Easy

The track is not known for seeing a lot of overtaking. It has two DRS zones on the two straights and they offer the best chances and nearly 80% of overtaking here has been into the first corner. DRS overtakes account for the vast majority of on track overtakes and if Red Bull do find themselves behind a car, their powerful DRS will pay dividends. The track surface is abrasive and tyre degradation is high.

It is a track where getting pole correlates highly with winning the race, much more so than Monaco. In the Turbo hybrid era, pole position has won six of the nine races, two were won from 2nd place and the other from 4th. There have only ever been two wins from a driver starting the race outside the top 4.

Driver Records

While Monaco is a driver’s track, the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya is the ultimate car track. If your car is the best you will win, unless you crash or break down. Not only will you win, you will win it from pole. As such, the driver’s records here are more of a reflection of the car they were driving at the time.

Looking at the results of the turbo hybrid era, Lewis Hamilton has won six, four from pole position. Max Verstappen has won two, last year’s race and in 2016 in his very first race for Red Bull. That was the year that Hamilton and Rosberg took each other out on the first lap.

That was one of just of the three races not won from pole position in the nine races. Verstappen has been on the podium for the last five years and was splitting the Mercs while they were still the dominant car.

Russell 3rd in 2022

George Russell was nowhere in the Williams but finished 3rd in the bouncing Merc last year. Fernando Alonso was the crowd favourite but his best finish from 2014 onwards is a 6th place in 2014. He never had the car in that time but he did win for Renault in 2006 and Ferrari in 2013.

Neither Ferrari driver has finished better than 4th but Leclerc was on pole last year. He broke down in the race and that was the end of Ferrari’s season as they realised they couldn’t run the power unit at full pelt or it would break. Bottas had a good run as he was in the Mercedes and he picked up four podiums in his time with the team.

Norris, Gasly and Ocon have each had three points finishes and both Alpine drivers a top 6.

Mercedes bagged pole from 2014 to 2021 and they enjoyed four 1-2 finishes. Red Bull got the 1-2 finish last year and they should have a very good chance of doing so again.

Team prospects

We have already had six races and we have a good idea of the relative strengths and weaknesses of the various teams. This weekend will just make that picture much clearer. It will also be a chance for the teams to properly test any upgrades that they have put on the car already and it is a sensible weekend to add any new upgrades that are ready to go.

We certainly know who has the best car. Red Bull have won every race so far and are already 129 points clear of Aston Martin in second place. Aston Martin are just one point ahead of Mercedes, with Ferrari falling back with just 90 points.

Alpine Improving

Alpine had a poor start to the season but they are now finding their pace and are looking to join the best of the rest contest along with Mercedes and Ferrari. Aston Martin might be out of reach, but Alpine can realistically aim for top 6 spots and not just the 8th and 9th places they had been picking up.

For the remaining five teams, getting points is going to be very hard. McLaren have more capacity to improve but even they are lacking the state of the art facilities of the top teams, cost cap or not. They are also having a lot of personnel changes and it has the feel of a rebuilding year for the team, set for a big push when the state of the art wind tunnel comes on stream later this year.

Red Bull

If Monaco was their opposition’s best chance to beat them, Barcelona is their worst. The best car thrives at Barcelona and the RB19 is the best car by some margin. Comfortable favourites for pole, race win and a 1-2 finish.

We should not expect Red Bull to take their foot of the gas just yet, they will do when the titles are in the bag, but do not be surprised to see upgrades coming for the Red Bull this weekend.

Aston Martin

The second best car on the grid? We will find out this weekend. There is only 1 point separating Aston Martin and Mercedes so that ‘best of the rest’ tag is up for grabs.

It probably is the second best car and the points are so close due to the fact that Mercedes have a well-balanced driver line up while Aston Martin are very reliant on Alonso. Lance Stroll has contributed just 27 of their 120 points.

This is an interesting position. Lawrence Stroll wants not to just win races, he wants the Championship in the next year or two. The reality is that any Constructor’s Championships will have to be won without his son in one of the cars. Alonso will be looking for his sixth podium of the season at his home GP and he should get it.

Mercedes

The only thing that looks likely to prevent Alonso getting another podium is a Mercedes. It was hard to learn much about their upgraded car at Monaco, but it is reckoned to be a modest step.

The basic lay out of the car is built in for 2023. They are reworking the body work around it, changing the suspension and the floor, but this is not a clean sheet re-design. It isn’t possible under the cost cap regulations. However, gaining a few tenths will help them compete with and maybe beat Alonso.

They have lacked good qualifying performance, but their race pace has always been decent and they can exploit that on this track. Mercedes have only scored one podium so far, but they have had three fourth places. The revised car may well be able to convert those 4ths into 3rds.

Hamilton was happy with the revised car saying that it has progressed and a step in the right direction. This weekend will be a huge data gathering exercise and we will have a better idea of the car’s competitiveness at the end of it.

Ferrari

Ferrari’s title hopes ended here last year. This year they have no hope to end. Their season has never got going. Good qualifying pace is not backed up by the car’s race pace and they are relying on an upgrade for this race to bring them back into the ‘best of the rest’ fight.

Monaco was a big opportunity for them to grab pole and from there, win the race. In the end, Leclerc was 0.106 seconds off pole, but he had to start from 6th having received a three place penalty for blocking Norris in qualifying. Sainz started fourth but his race unravelled after he drove into the back of Ocon, damaging his front wing. He then had a row with the team’s strategists and it was just another shambles for Ferrari.

The car has pace but like last year, being good qualifiers but poor racers is not how to do it. Like Mercedes, we will learn just where Ferrari are and where they are heading for the rest of the season.

Revised Suspension

A revised suspension is the mainstay of this upgrade, no doubt aimed at helping to reduce tyre degradation, but will that in turn take the edge off their qualifying pace? Ferrari are committed to the car’s basic design and are only trying to get the cars race pace to match its qualifying pace, they don’t have the time or budget for a re-design.

There are also problems that are not on the car. Operationally, they are still struggling. Not warning Leclerc that Norris was behind him on a qualifying lap was a case in point. Giving up three places on the Monaco grid because of someone not doing their job properly is unacceptable, but it just seems to keep on happening at Ferrari.

Alpine

Ocon’s podium came at a good time for the beleaguered team, but do not expect another one this weekend. It was a result of a great qualifying lap by Ocon, aided by Leclerc getting his grid penalty. Ocon had track position on a track where that is vital.

He managed his race well but in terms of race pace, he was unable to stay close to Alonso, never mind Verstappen. Had he been, Alonso’s double pit stops when the rain arrived would have allowed Ocon to make the jump to second place.

The underlying positive for Alpine is that the program of continuous development is working. They may not be doing big upgrades but race by race, they bring small developments and they are working.

They obviously understand the car and are making it quicker, as they did last year. Alpine have moved to the top of the midfield and now they have to try and join battle with Mercedes and Ferrari.

McLaren

A double points finish in Monaco was only thanks to Perez and Stroll having very poor weekends. Their car remains outside of the top 5 in terms of performance, although it was going well when the race was wet.

We will get a much clearer picture of where they stack up after this weekend, but Alpine have got themselves heading in the right direction while McLaren are still trying to play catch up after not having had their 2023 car ready for the start of the season. The opposition got a head start on them and with their own upgrades they are keeping McLaren behind them.

Their best two races came in Melbourne, with its three red flags and eight DNFs, and Monaco. Two races that are not representative of ‘normal’ races. Their average finishing positions are 12.5 for Norris and 12.6 for Piastri and that looks about right, perhaps a little flattering.

Haas

Monaco was not a good weekend for Haas. They never really threatened the top 10 and like McLaren, the seventh place for Hulkenberg in Melbourne accounts for 6 of their 8 points scored.

With Alpine getting their act together, it is going to be very difficult for teams like Haas to score points. They really need some of the drivers ahead of them to have problems or high attrition races, but on performance alone, things look bleak.

Alfa Romeo

It was a decent weekend for Alfa Romeo in Monaco with Bottas finishing 11th and Zhou 13th. Their slow corner performance is decent and it was a track which suited their car, but they still didn’t score points. Back on a ‘proper’ race track it is likely they will be scrapping for something in the teens.

Alpha Tauri

At least their upgrades have moved them in the right direction, even if brake problems cost Tsunoda a season’s best 9th place. Nyck De Vries had his best result in qualifying and the race and it will be very interesting to see their car on the ultimate test track.

Scoring points may still require problems for others but they seem to have moved up the order and are knocking on the points door. Better than McLaren? It looks very close.

Williams

There will be parts of the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya which the Williams will enjoy (the straight bits) and others it won’t. It lacks the downforce to be competitive and unfortunately none of the F1 circuits are drag strips.

Alex Albon is actually doing a good job with an average finishing position of 12.8. He will not be last, but he won’t score points.

Weather Forecast

Rain played a part in the Monaco race and caused the cancellation of the Imola race. Will we get any more this weekend? Southern Europe has seen a lot of rain lately and it looks like that theme will continue, but the forecasts are not in agreement.

All three days are set to be partly cloudy, around 24 degrees, but some forecasts say there is a chance of light showers for all three days but especially on Friday, others that it should remain dry for all three days with only a small chance of any showers. We haven’t had a wet race here since 1996 which indicates that dry weather should prevail.

Heat Sensitive Track

The track surface here is very heat sensitive and partly cloudy conditions can make a difference, especially in qualifying. When the sun comes out the track heats up quickly and if a cloud blocks out the sun the track surface can drop a few degrees quickly. That has been enough to ruin drivers qualifying laps here in the past.

Wind can also be a problem in terms of changing the conditions at very short notice. The winds are forecast to be light and quite consistent across the three days.

2023 Spanish GP: Ante Post Selections

The ante post selections continue to perform badly and this is a race where it looks wise to hold fire until raceday. We will learn a lot about the cars’ relative form and with so many upgrades likely to be introduced here, or already on the cars but not yet having been run on a proper track, patience should be a virtue.

We can be confident that the Red Bull is going to be very strong here. The best cars get rewarded here and the RB19 is in a class of its own. Max Verstappen is the 1.44 favourite and if anything that is a touch generous. His only likely threat is his teammate.

Perez took a kicking last weekend and he will be at a low ebb. He needs to regroup and make sure he finishes second, anything else would be a failure in that car. Perez is a 1.44 shot to finish on the podium which looks about right, and again a touch generous.

Tsunoda Value?

Yuki Tsunoda looks like a bit of value at 3.50 to finish in the points at the 2023 Spanish GP. They have improved the car with various upgrades and he could match his 10th place here last year. However, with Alpine seemingly in much better shape, it will be hard for any of the midfield teams to score unless we have a race of high attrition.

It is likely that this weekend will see more upgrades brought by more teams than at any race this season. How they pan out may change the pecking order and I am keeping my power dry until after we have had the three free practice sessions.

-JamesPunt