2023 Royal Ascot Saturday Preview & Tips – DS
2023 Royal Ascot Saturday Tips
We kept things ticking over nicely on Friday with a couple of nice places. Moracana should have won though and Rocket Rodney should also have gone much closer. Let’s hope we can finish the week with a flourish. Check out Dave Stevos’ 2023 Royal Ascot Saturday Tips below.
2.30 – Chesham Stakes (Listed)
Aidan O’Brien has won four of the last seven renewals of this Listed contest. He is doubly represented here but the one I like at a price is trained by the 2018 winning handler. Tom Dascombe is rebuilding after his split from Michael Owen and he’ll be desperate to get a Royal Ascot winner on the board from his new base in Upper Lambourn.
He runs Hot Fuss here, a horse that made a very pleasing debut at Newbury earlier this month. He is certainly bred to be a Royal Ascot horse. His sire Calyx won the Coventry here in 2018 and his Galileo dam is a half sister to a Sandringham winner. It is a very nice mix of speed and stamina and on the evidence of his Newbury debut, a fast run 7f could be absolutely perfect for him at this stage in his career.
Pierre Louis Jamin rode on debut and clearly, his instructions were to give this colt a gentle, educational introduction. He did exactly that and Hot Fuss shaped like a horse with a fair bit of ability. After he walked out of the stalls a fourth placed finish didn’t look likely but he travelled into the race very nicely.
Though the leaders had flown, I loved how he quickened smartly after Jamin gave him one tap behind around a furlong out and he ran on really well all the way to the line. Dascombe has booked another ex-Michael Owen man Richard Kingscote for the ride and once he doesn’t lose too much ground from the stalls, Hot Fuss can hopefully hit the frame at odds of 50/1.
2023 Royal Ascot Saturday Tips: Hot Fuss e/w @ 50/1 (4 places)
3.05 – Jersey Stakes (Group 3)
These 7f races are like Dublin buses, none for ages then two in the space of a few minutes. This Group 3 looks a pretty competitive renewal. Covey is favourite to add his fourth win of the season after landing a Haydock handicap at a mile last time out. He has the assistance of the in form Frankie in the plate and he should make a pretty bold bid from the front.
The one I’ll take a chance on at much bigger odds is Thunderbear. Jack Davison trains this very progressive son of Kodi Bear and Jamie Spencer rides. This horse won a 6f (gd) handicap at Fairyhouse last season and then ran two poor races subsequently. However, 5f at Dundalk and 5f on heavy at Bellewstown didn’t exactly play to his strengths.
Davison headed over to Nottingham in search of better ground and though it was on the soft side, Thunderbear got back on track with a stylish win off 85. Then, on his first good ground run of the campaign last month he ran a massive race in a Naas G3 (6f gd), finishing off strongly for 4th, 1.25L behind The Antarctic.
I think he could reverse that form over an extra furlong and as well as that, Davison’s charge is also 3lbs better off at the weights. There is no way Thunderbear should be a 33/1 poke here if The Antarctic is 11/2. At the prices, an e/w bet on Thunderbear at those odds looks a no brainer.
2023 Royal Ascot Saturday Tips: Thunderbear e/w @ 33/1 (4 places) nb
3.40 – Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes (Group 1)
I’ll keep this short and sweet. I have already put up Run To Freedom for this race and my confidence has not diminished. Henry Candy’s charge is 25/1 for five places now with one firm and I’ll be going in again on those terms. I said he was my best bet of the week in the ante-post preview, you can read my reasoning here. Obviously, there are no guarantees in horse racing but if this horse is in good form and runs his race, he won’t be far away.
2023 Royal Ascot Saturday Tips: Run To Freedom e/w @ 25/1 (5 places) NAP
4.20 – Hardwicke Stakes (Group 2)
With Hukum out only seven run here and our old friend Pyledriver is back. He hasn’t been seen since we were on him at this meeting a year ago and he may just need to blow away the cobwebs. Frankie and Gosden have the fav Free Wind and she looks a pretty formidable opponent. She has won her last four in a row but she has only been seen twice since Sept 2021 so she may not be the most robust of mares.
Deauville Legend will surely be using this as a stepping stone towards a repeat bid in the Melbourne Cup after his valiant effort there last year. Changingoftheguard beat Grand Alliance by a short head here last year and they renew their rivalry today. At the prices, you’d have to side with the Fellowes’ horse of those two but with just two places on offer, we’ll sit this race out. No bet.
2023 Royal Ascot Saturday Tips: No bet
5.00 – Wokingham Stakes (Heritage Handicap)
We’ve had a 25/1 winner and a few places at big odds in the handicaps here this week. Hopefully we can continue our good run in the Wokingham, a 6f, 28 runner sprint. Middle to high draws usually hold an advantage in this contest and the early pace this year looks to be middle to high again.
I’m going to go with a high drawn horse here. From stall 31, Princess Shabnam will have the rail and I think she could be well treated now off 96. She won a Listed race for Sean Woods last season, beating Gale Force Maya (then rated 107) at Pontefract (6f gd/fm). She had previously got to within 1.75L of the 107 rated Ebro River in another Listed race at Chester.
Unlucky
On her last turf handicap start (also at Chester) she was beat a neck off 96. She was extremely unlucky in that race, drawn widest and denied a clear run. She gets in off the same mark today and there is no doubt in my mind that this filly is capable of winning off that rating. Her penultimate run at Newmarket behind Azure Blue wasn’t that bad an effort and if she takes to the first time hood, Princess Shabnam can outrun her odds of 66/1.
2023 Royal Ascot Saturday Tips: Princess Shabnam e/w @ 66/1 (6 places)
5.35 – Golden Gate Handicap Stakes (Class 2)
I have zero interest in the glorified bumper at 6.10 so this will be the last bet of the week. Hopefully we can sign off with a decent run from Londoner at odds of 33/1. By Saxon Warrior, Wayne Lordan is aboard Aidan O’Brien’s second string. He has had just four career starts and his only win came on his sole all weather outing at Dundalk. His other three runs have come on soft/heavy, including a decent effort in April when beat 1.75L in a Longchamp G3.
Last time out it was heavy ground again when he was beat 7L into 4th by Sprewell at Leopardstown in another G3. Now, he makes his handicap debut off 100 and he gets fast ground for the first time in his career. His sire loved it quick and so far, he has 0 winners (12 top 3s) from 39 runners on ground with soft/heavy in the description compared to 12 wins (20 top 3s) from 104 runners on good or quicker.
His half brother Time’s Arrow won a Listed race on good ground and his dam won three times on good/firm ground. Londoner has already displayed a fair bit of ability on testing ground and this faster ground could show him in an even better light. Ryan Moore prefers last time out handicap winner Canute but at 33/1, hopefully Londoner can prove him wrong.
