2023 British GP Outright Betting Preview

Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2023 British GP outright betting preview and betting tips. James finished off last weekend with three lovely winners in his Austrian GP Raceday Update, hopefully he can continue in the same vein.

2023 British GP

The Red Bull rampage in 2023 continued in Austria. It was another win for Verstappen and despite suffering with illness, Perez recovered to 3rd place after his customary qualifying woes. They are now 199 points clear of Mercedes in second place, who are in turn just 3 points clear of Aston Martin, who are 21 points ahead of Ferrari.

Max Miles Clear

Verstappen is now 199 points clear for his teammate Perez in second place. Perez is 17 ahead of Alonso in 3rd.

We have a nice bet on Perez to win the championship without Verstappen and the battle for second place is a much closer affair. Verstappen is all but home and hosed and Perez is 1.44 to win without Verstappen.

Perez has gone through a collapse of confidence ever since crashing in qualifying in Monaco. He steadied the ship in Austria but he needs to get it right in qualifying this weekend to take the pressure off him. Any dreams of winning the title should be out of his head by now and he should just be cracking on and trying to win races and racking up lots of podiums.

Blue Riband Race

The British GP’s is one of the major races on the F1 calendar. It has been around from the very start of the Formula 1 championship and the fast flowing nature of the track makes it a driver favourite. It is the home race for many of the teams and for the British drivers in the field.

Some drivers thrive in home races, others struggle. Lewis Hamilton is a thriver having won it eight times. Lando Norris has had three top 6 finishes at Silverstone but George Russell has yet to score a point.

The 2023 British GP Circuit

Like many of the UK’s racetracks, Silverstone started out as a World War 2 bomber base. They liked to build those airfields on flat, exposed land where it was windy and a stiff breeze is often a feature of British GPs.

It has been changed over the years but it has retained its rapid nature and it is a classic, old school, high speed racetrack. Clearly power is important but the cars are fairly level in the department these days.

How well your car performs in the high speed corners here that is the key. You need plenty of downforce to keep the car stable through the fast corners, but that creates more drag.

The more efficient your downforce package the better, and none is better than Red Bull. The high downforce set up will also make the DRS more effective and powerful, and again, that is one of Red Bulls party tricks.

Proper Corners

There are 18 corners in the near 6km long track, and they are proper corners, not just kinks or curves. There are seven fairly slow corners but the rest are either very fast or flat out fast. Despite being very fast, there isn’t the amount of braking that you might expect and it is a very much a flat to the floor lap for the most part.

In the turbo hybrid era Mercedes have dominated at Silverstone, winning seven of the ten Grand Prix held here (nine British GPs and the 70th Anniversary GP 2020).

Ferrari have won two (including Carlos Sainz last year) and Red Bull just one. That is a testament to the power required to win around this track and how long it took Red Bull to get a competitive power unit.

Tough On Tyres

The track is very hard on tyres as it puts a lot of lateral load into the body of the tyres, so much so that Pirelli have made a Silverstone special. A stronger construction to help prevent catastrophic tyre failures which have occurred here in the past. The compounds are the same but the construction is stronger to cope with the extra loading.

It is a track that can produce a lot of attrition. The average over the last ten races here is 3.90 not classified cars per race. Even the last five years have seen a rate of 2.80 and there were six in 2022.

Collisions are often the reason for retirements as any car to car impacts do not tend to happen at slow speeds. The average attrition rate for 2023 so far is just 1.67 and there have been a total of just 5 not classifieds in the last five races in 2023. It will be interesting to see if Silverstone bucks the trend.

Turbo Hybrid Era

In the ten turbo hybrid era races here, the number of retirements caused by collisions/accidents per race is 2.30 and by mechanical reasons, 1.80.

As the cars have become more reliable the rates have changed. In the last five, the mechanical retirement rate has been exactly 1. In the same period the collisions/accidents rate was 1.80

The drivers do tend to be more disciplined these days, perhaps due to the cost cap making every penny count. Team principles do not take kindly to drivers crashing their cars and ringing up big repair costs. You are not going to have a long career in F1 if you are a crasher.

Maybe this is in the drivers’ mind when they see a gap. Is it worth the risk? No would seem to be a more common answer these days. The stewards are also pretty quick to dish out penalties to drivers who have been too aggressive, whether in defence or attack.

2023 British GP: Driver Records

Lewis Hamilton has dominated his home Grand Prix. He has won seven of the last ten and been on the podium every time.

Charles Leclerc has had three podiums and two fourth places and it has traditionally been a relatively good track for Ferrari over the years. Carlos Sainz got his solitary Grand Prix win here last year but outside of that, his record at Silverstone is poor with just three other top 10s.

Max Verstappen has one win and two second places and it has not been a kind race for him. Perez was runner up last year, his best ever result at Silverstone.

Lando Norris has four top 10s (three top 6s). Further down the grid, Esteban Ocon has had five top 10s from six starts. Nico Hulkenberg has nine career top 10s from ten starts and Valtteri Bottas has five podium finishes, including one for Williams.

2023 British GP: Weather Forecast

The UK experienced its hottest June on record but since then, July has been a dreary affair. Cooler, wetter, windier weather has dominated this month so far.

The forecast for the weekend is for the weather to improve with hot and sunny conditions on Friday, with a steady breeze. Saturday is much more typical of an English Summer with sunshine and showers and gusty winds, but still warm.

There is a 40% of showers for qualifying. That would be four race weekends on the trot with a wet qualifying. Sunday will be a few degrees cooler and partly cloudy but with no sign of rain.

The Teams

Red Bull

Something happened in Austria which was very strange. At one point Red Bull were not leading the race.

It was only a brief hiatus in the Red Bull domination of 2023, and after the pitstops had panned out it was Verstappen running away with it again, even having the luxury of being able to make a late pitstop to take on soft tyres and pick up the bonus point for fastest lap.

The main story at Red Bull is surrounding Perez. He recovered well enough last weekend to finish 3rd after starting 15th. He has failed to make Q3 in five of the nine race weekends and the last four in a row.

Perez Unwell in Austria

Perez said that he was feeling very unwell in Austria but is hoping to have recovered by this weekend. It is a very hard physical challenge to drive an F1 car around this track and he’ll want to be feeling 100%. His record here is nothing special, but in the best car on the track, he should be looking for a podium finish.

Verstappen is the 1.36 favourite and while Silverstone has not been a great track for him, he will be hard to stop. The Red Bull’s efficient downforce will be rewarded well here.

Mercedes

Suffered a bit of a setback to their recent revival in Austria. The car lacked decent traction, was understeering and never really on the pace. It will take them some time to fully understand their new design and a few missteps are perhaps inevitable.

The team will unleash another sizeable upgrade for Hamilton’s home race and I would not be surprised to see him fighting to keep his remarkable home record going with a podium finish. Russell will be looking to score his first points on home soil.

Aston Martin

The big home race for the Silverstone based team. After starting the season as best of the rest, thanks to Mercedes sticking with a flawed concept and Ferrari being Ferrari, Aston Martin now have company.

The revised Mercedes has been back on the podium before last weekend’s dip and Ferrari’s upgrade has improved their race pace. Even the upgraded McLaren is having a look in, so life has got tougher for Alonso and Stroll.

Ferrari

It does look like Ferrari have manged to find a solution to their tyre deg issues over a race distance. They went well in Canada and again in Austria.

They were not great on the Saturday with its cooler conditions and that does suggest tyre warm up issues. That in turn suggests they are being easier on the rubber which helps them in the race.

They may lose some pace in cooler conditions so they will be hoping that the mercury is rising at the weekend. Silverstone has been a decent venue for Ferrari over the years and while winning would require Red Bull to have problems, I expect Ferrari to be in the mix for a podium.

Leclerc Not Confident

Charles Leclerc is not so confident however, saying that the car still has a weakness in high speed corners, of which there are plenty at Silverstone.

It was between Red Bull and Ferrari here last year. Leclerc got pole position from Verstappen, Sainz third and Perez fourth. The best of the rest, Hamilton was a second off the pole time.

Verstappen took the lead of the restarted race but he hit some debris on the track and his floor was badly damaged, causing a loss of downforce, and he dropped to seventh place by the end of the race. Leclerc was the victim of some dodgy strategy by Ferrari and it was left to Sainz to take the win.

Alpine

There were real signs of progress at Alpine a couple of races ago, but they have hit a wall and now face the problem of McLaren joining the party.

We now have six teams with cars that have points scoring pace and Alpine cannot just pick up the minor points due to a lack of competition. The team are under pressure from Renault to perform, to justify their budget and it is just not happening.

Just ten points score from the last three races will not do and now they are within the clutches of a resurgent McLaren. Ocon has gone well here in the past and he looks the more likely to pick up whatever crumbs fall from the top table.

They will introduce a new front wing this weekend before a new floor comes along at Spa. They insist that they are still targeting Aston Martin and Mercedes but now they are also looking over their shoulder as McLaren rises.

McLaren

Finally have the car they need to compete with the likes of Ferrari, Mercedes and Aston Martin, or at least that is what Lando Norris’ form in Austria suggested.

We should remember that the Red Bull Ring is Norris’ strongest track which may have flattered the car somewhat, as did the cool, damp conditions on Saturday. That said, his race pace was decent and his elevation to 4th place after the post-race penalties were handed out was well deserved.

Better Downforce

The struggles of the Mercedes certainly helped McLaren but they now have a car that should see them into Q3 and more points. The latest upgrade is said to give the car better mid-corner downforce which reduces tyre deg over a race distance. That should be a useful trait at Silverstone.

Norris was pleased with the car’s progress, especially in the race, but he did point out that it remains a hard car to drive

The team are due to put the Austrian upgrade on Piastri’s car and a further upgrade for both cars is due this weekend, if they can manufacture the parts in time. It may be that only Norris gets the full treatment.

Norris has said that his car is one of the best in fast corners, and that was before the upgrade, so they could be in for another fairly competitive weekend. While his record here is not as good as in Austria, he has performed well enough on home soil.

Haas

The car remains a one trick pony. It can go fast, but not for very long. This makes for a useless race car but they can impress in qualifying.

I guess their best chance of scoring more points will come in the four remaining Sprint race weekends, and even then, only if the weather is cool and preferably wet. This weekend will be bleak for Haas.

Alfa Romeo

Good fast corner performance has not been a feature of the Alfa Romeos in the ground effect era. That suggests that they are not going to enjoy Silverstone too much. They did get Zhou into Q3 here last year, but that was in a wet qualifying session.

Alfa Romeo is said to now be the slowest car on the grid and they will be bringing a new floor designed to improve high speed performance. Their last upgrade was at Monaco and they did score points in the following two races, so they might know what they are doing.

If they can improve their high speed cornering performance, they could make a good jump. Qualifying pace is a particular weakness, so if they go better on Saturday, they are on the right track.

Williams

The team dropped the ball in the Austrian sprint race and points were dropped. The layout of the Red Bull ring played to their strengths and while scoring points in the GP was just out of reach, their strategy fumble on Saturday was that of a team not used to being in regular points scoring positions.

The car loves straights but lacks the kind of downforce needed to thrive at Silverstone. There are just too many corners here to suit the car.

The team will have some new development parts on the car but no major upgrade.

Alpha Tauri

This year’s basket case, and they have been going backwards. They introduced a new rear wing package in Austria which ‘worked as expected’ but didn’t make them anymore competitive.

This weekend sees the team introduce a ‘more significant’ upgrade. Another new floor design (they had a new one in Australia) is aimed at dealing with the late corner entry instability which the drivers have complained of.

The car is better on the higher speed tracks in any case and they expect a more competitive weekend ahead.

2023 British GP: Ante Post Selections

With upgrades coming for many of the cars, this is not a race to be getting stuck in to early. We know that Red Bull/Verstappen are very likely to win but at very short odds. Who will be best of the rest is much more difficult to predict.

Ferrari have made clear progress in terms of improved race pace. This has been a good track for them and they are in the running for a podium.

The downside is that they remain Ferrari, not a team known to maximise their potential. That Leclerc is still concerned about the car’s performance in high speed corners is a negative, and they are still relatively hard on their tyres despite improvements in that area.

Mercedes Progress

Mercedes have also made good progress since they bit the bullet and binned the flawed 2022 concept. This has been an excellent venue for them and Hamilton in particular.

With ten consecutive podium finishes here it would look weird if he wasn’t on the podium come Sunday. He did it last year and that car was not good.

The concern for Mercedes is that they were disappointing in Austria. A track anomaly or just a reminder that their return to competitiveness will not be straightforward?

If they are to get another podium, Hamilton should be the one to do it. His pace has picked up now that he has a more competitive car, while Russell has been outqualified by his teammate

Aston Competitive

Aston Martin remain competitive but they now have company in the best of the rest category. From five podiums from the first six races, Alonso has one from the last three, Hamilton two and Leclerc one.

The only bet going up now is one on Hamilton to get another podium finish. With a sizeable upgrade coming to the car and on a track where he is a specialist, Hamilton should be very much in the mix.

If Perez is back to full health, there should only be one podium place up for grabs for the rest of the field, so a potential 2 pointer has to be cropped back to a small one point stake.

2023 British GP Tip: 1 point Lewis Hamilton to finish on the podium @ 2.10 with Ladbrokes, Betfred

I was seriously considering a bet on the number of finishers. Silverstone has had a high attrition rate in the past and often due to accidents and collisions rather than mechanical failures. That may be enough to buck the trend of this season’s average of 1.67 retirements per race.

However, the drivers have just been too well behaved this season. There are no real idiots in the field and the weather for race day suggest fine conditions. Under 17.5 is 2.50 but that’s just not quite enough.

We will know more about the many upgrades coming this weekend after the free practice sessions have ended and I am happy to keep the powder dry for now. Updates as usual for qualifying and the race.

-JamesPunt