2023 World Matchplay Saturday Preview

So, it is finally here. It is major time at the Winter Gardens and what a week of darts we have ahead of us. James Punt has already posted an in depth, outright betting preview, it is well worth a read (here). He’ll also be covering EVERY match, check out his 2023 World Matchplay Saturday tips below.

Joe Cullen vs. Mike de Decker

Mike de Decker’s last match, played on Tuesday, was a 3-6 loss to Joe Cullen in PC16. Cullen went on to reach the semi-final and on Monday he had reached the quarter final of PC15. He has won eight of his last ten matches and is in great form.

De Decker is having a decent 2023. He reached his first Players Championship final (PC11 in late May) and his seasonal win rate is 61%, his best since 2019. Their H2H record is 3-1 to Cullen, all Players Championship matches, with three comfortable wins for Cullen and a 6-5 win for De Decker.

Cullen has much more experience in longer format matches and De Decker has only played one first to ten leg match, losing 8-10 to Kim Huybrechts in the UK Open.

Both players are ranked in the top 10 for 180s per leg over the last 12 months. Their previous matches have seen nothing special maximum wise at 0.436 per leg over the three matches for which data is available.

Cullen is the 1.55 favourite, De Decker 2.63. Given Cullen’s great form, his recent 6-3 win over De Decker and three out of four comfortable wins, I’ll take Cullen to cover the handicap.

2023 World Matchplay Saturday tip: 1 point Joe Cullen to win -2.5 legs @ 2.28 with Unibet

Rob Cross vs. Daryl Gurney

Rob Cross won PC11 and ET10 within eight days of each other in late May. He then went to New York for the US Masters and reached the semi-final, averaging 102 in a 6-7 loss to MVG.

Since then he has played ten and lost five. Has that hot streak come to an end? Maybe, but his scoring has remained good in the main, if a bit less consistent.

Cross won this title in 2019 and beat Daryl Gurney 17-15 in the semi-final. Cross was 9-15 down but Gurney couldn’t get it over the line and Cross won eight legs on the spin to win the match.

H2H Advantage Cross

Their overall H2H record is 15-7 to Cross and since that semi-final here in 2019 they have played twelve and Cross has won eight (6-3 on TV). He will feel the more confident going into this one.

Superchin has won six of his last ten matches but continues to be inconsistent scoring wise. He can still bang in the big ton plus averages but there are too many sub 90’s (20% of his last 50, compared to 18% 100+). Predictable he is not.

Cross is the 1.48 favourite with Gurney 2.80. Based on their previous matches, I can’t argue with those odds. Neither player is in their best form, both are inconsistent, but Cross has the H2H advantage, especially in this venue.

His record in first round matches in this event is good, winning five from six. Gurney has won five of his seven first round matches. Not a betting match for me. No bet.

2023 World Matchplay Saturday tip: No bet

Gerwyn Price vs. Stephen Bunting

Price is 8-4 against Bunting and 5-1 in their last six. On TV it is 3-1 Price. The Iceman has won six of his last ten matches, so he’s not in top form. He choose not to play in the Players Championship events earlier this week.

Bunting did and won three of his five matches. Like Price he has won six of his last ten but hasn’t scored as well as Price. Bunting has lost six of his eight opening matches at the Winter Gardens so he doesn’t have many positive experiences to draw on.

Price has also played in eight Matchplays and won four first round matches. He was runner up last year and a quarter finalist in 2021 and 2015. They haven’t met since 2021 when Price beat Bunting in the World Championship and World Grand Prix semi-finals. They met here in the first round in 2019 and Price won a sudden death leg to win 13-12.

Price Odds On

Price is the 1.25 favourite, Bunting 4.00. Again, not odds I am going to argue with. There is one stat which sticks out when these two have played each other before. In their last nine matches for which data was collected, no less than five saw them hit the same number of 180s.

In their most recent match, Price edged it by just one, so for whatever reason, they have tended to mirror each other. A pure coincidence? Maybe, but I’ll throw some lose change at it happening again.

2023 World Matchplay Saturday tip: 0.5 point most 180s a draw @ 7.00 with Ladbrokes, Betfred, Boylesports

Dave Chisnall vs. Gary Anderson

The main event to close the evening’s play. Dave Chisnall is one of the form players in 2023. Top of the pro tour and Euro Tour OOM’s. His win rate is 70% and he has won two Euro Tour titles and been runner up in another.

He was runner up in PC15 on Monday. He has won seven of his last ten matches and hit six ton plus averages. Chizzy is in great form.

Gary Anderson has decided to have a go at returning to a fuller schedule, even trying a couple of Euro Tour events. He is practicing more and his form has improved as a result.

He has won a Players Championship title and been runner up in two others, including PC13 last month. The Flying Scotsman has won six of his last ten matches. He is playing well, if not quite as well as Chizzy.

Close Averages

Their 12 month averages couldn’t be closer, 97.18 for Chisnall and 97.19 for Gary Anderson. The H2H record shows a big 19-7 lead for Anderson. They have played 18 matches on TV and Anderson has won 12.

Anderson to be favourite given that H2H record? In a few places he is, but the market is finding it hard to split them. Anderson is a best priced 1.91 and Chizzy 1.93.

Two players with very similar vital statistics, in good form and very experienced. That sounds like a recipe for a close match.

2023 World Matchplay Saturday tip: 1 point over 16.5 legs @ 1.75 with Ladbrokes, Boylesports

-JamesPunt