2023 World Matchplay Tuesday Preview

One winner at odds of 2.00 for James Punt on Monday night. Hopefully we can get back amongst the winners tonight, check out James’ 2023 World Matchplay Tuesday tips below.

Monday Review

It was another frustrating night at the office last night. Dimitri made us sweat a bit in the first match but two late 180’s landed that one. Andrew Gilding was poor and never asked any questions of Peter Wright but the hard one was Clayton.

He was playing really badly but still 4-1 up at the first break, continued playing poorly but lead 7-3 at the last break. Inevitably he couldn’t keep on winning legs with 25 darts and Clemens eventually got eight legs on the board to lose that bet.

One point down on the night and -4.77 for the tournament to date. It turns out his father is ill and his head was clearly not in the game, so I’ll forgive him that one.

Another tough one ahead tonight. There are some interesting odds on the outsiders and favourite backers may not have it all their own way.

Gary Anderson vs. Daryl Gurney

Anderson was far from his best in a 10-6 win over Dave Chisnall in the first round. He wasn’t terrible, Chisnall was, but he got away with it thanks to Chisnall massively underperforming.

Anderson has been a better player in 2023 thanks to putting more work into his game. However, he says he didn’t practice after the World Cup and only started throwing again at an exhibition and the two Players Championship events early last week. That may explain the downturn in his performance.

His seasonal average is now 97.87 which is very competitive, and with a bit more practice in the last day or two, he should be nearer that tonight.

Tough Opener

Daryl Gurney had a tough match against Rob Cross which went some way to burying the ghosts of 2019. It was a resilient performance with Cross coming back from an early deficit to level it at 9-9 to take the match to extra time. Cross went 10-9 up and it looked like a case of déjà vu, but Gurney won the next three legs to close the deal.

It was a 95.3 average and his finishing was very good, with a number of big three figure checkouts and being 63% on the doubles. He knows that that part of his game is right up to scratch and if he can get back to something like the 180 scoring power he had a few years ago, then titles will come.

Even H2H

Anderson has won six of his last ten matches, as has Gurney, and their H2H record couldn’t be closer at 11-11 with one drawn match. They met four times last season and Gurney won three, including a 10-7 win in the first round here last year, and he also beat Anderson here in the second round, winning that one 11-9.

Both players are in better form in 2023 so it’s hard to read too much into last year’s results, but clearly Gurney will not lack in self-belief against Anderson on this stage.

Anderson is the 1.44 favourite with Gurney 3.00. I disagree with those odds. Their H2H record tells us that Gurney is not a 3.00 chance. Yes, Anderson is the heavier scorer in 2023, but Gurney is no slouch himself and he has a very strong record against Anderson on the TV stages.

TV Form

They have played 12 and Gurney won 7, Anderson 4, with one draw. Three of Anderson’s wins came in the Premier League and the other the World Championship.

Gurney has stage wins against Anderson in the Players Championship finals, World Series, World Grand Prix, World Matchplay and Champions League.

Anderson should start as favourite, but as short as 1.44? Not in my book. I’ll take a cautious approach and back him on the handicap, but outright odds of 3.00 are very tempting.

2023 World Matchplay Tuesday tip: 1 point Daryl Gurney to win +2.5 legs @ 1.85 with Ladbrokes, Fitzdares

Danny Noppert vs. Nathan Aspinall

Noppert made hard work of beating an underwhelming Martin Schindler in the first round. The German only averaged 88.5 but was able to come back from 4-8 down to 7-8 down and then 9-8 down before Noppert closed it with a 13 dart leg to win 10-8. It was a decent display with seven legs of 15 darts or fewer and a 94.7 average. Decent, but not great.

Aspinall was full of beans in his 10-7 win over Ratajski in his opener. When he is bouncing about the stage giving it some noise, you know he is up for it.

He thrives in this kind of environment and it was interesting that he said he had sorted out an off the oche issue that had been bothering him for months. He is now fully focused on his game and this event. Aspinall has won only five of his last ten matches and has been losing a lot of quarter finals which must be frustrating, but he is playing well in the main.

Aspinall Edges H2H

Their H2H record is 9-6 to Aspinall and they have played four times this year, all on the Euro Tour and it is 2-2. Noppert won the first two 6-5, Aspinall the last two 6-4 and very recently 6-3 in the European Matchplay two weeks ago. Aspinall is 3-1 in TV majors with Noppert.

Aspinall is the 1.67 favourite and Noppert 2.30. They played a European Championship quarter final in 2021 and that went all the way to a deciding leg, Aspinall winning 10-9. This has the look of another close one, with Aspinall to edge it again. Extra time perhaps?

He won both his second round matches here 11-9 in the last two years, so very close to going into that extended match zone.

2023 World Matchplay Tuesday tip: 1 point over 18.5 legs @ 1.91 with Boylesports

2023 World Matchplay Tuesday tip: 0.5 point Aspinall to win 14-13 @ 41.00 with Betfred, Unibet

Gerwyn Price vs. Joe Cullen

Price was very solid in his 10-3 win over Stephen Bunting in round 1. He started slowly and was a bit slow after the first break. He had four 17 dart legs in the first nine legs of the match, so it wasn’t a great display but more than enough.

Price has won seven of his last ten matches and it was interesting that he said that work on his new house had not been going well and that had kept him from playing and practicing as much as he would like to. That may explain some lack of consistency in his game which has been a bit hot and cold of late.

Ton Plus Average

Joe Cullen was impressive in his 10-7 win over Mike de Decker. It was a 100.67 average, eight 180s and a 48% checkout rate. He hit seven legs of 15 darts or less.

His recent form is great, winning eight of his last ten matches and he will be feeling good about his game. He has admitted to getting very huffy about not being selected for the Premier League but says he is over that now and back to getting on with things.

Their H2H record is close, at 11-9 to Price and 5-5 across their last 10, but Price is 7-3 on TV.

Price is the 1.33 favourite with Cullen 3.60. I might give Cullen more of a chance than that but clearly, he needs to bring his A game, probably more than he brought in the first round.

It is hard to see any value bets in this one. They have had some close longer format matches and some very one sided ones and I’m happy to just watch this one, and secretly root for Cullen.

2023 World Matchplay Tuesday tip: No bet

Michael Smith vs. Chris Dobey

This is not as clear cut as the odds suggest. Smith is the 1.44 favourite and Dobey the 3.00 outsider, but their H2H record tells us that Dobey has a better chance than that.

Overall the record is 6-5 to Smith but in 2023, it’s 3-1 to Dobey. They met three times in this year’s Premier League and Dobey won two, both 6-4, Smith the last one 6-1. They also met in the semi-final of the Masters, like tonight’s match a first to 11 leg format, and Dobey won that 11-7. The 3.00 outsider will be going into this with a good deal of confidence.

Struggling Smith

Michael Smith didn’t play at all well in the first round vs. Steve Beaton. He averaged just 88.98 in what was a very comfortable win, but it was a struggle to watch.

Yes, you get matches where one player is playing really badly and the other comes out in sympathy and plays nearly as badly, but it will not have done his confidence any good. The top players should be better than that.

Smith was far from happy with his performance and it was probably just one of those games. He has admitted to putting pressure on himself, trying too hard to live up to the World Champion/World number tag.

Solid Dobey

Chris Dobey on the other hand played very well to beat James Wade 10-8. James Wade did have big problems hitting double 20 and it cost him the game in the end. It would have been a different story had Wade been a bit more like James Wade.

Dobey hit eight 180s and averaged 96.22, which is very much in line with his seasonal average. He has won six of his last ten matches and has been playing to a good standard, most of the time.

Smith has won seven of his last ten matches, some since introducing his new darts. He has hit two big ton plus averages but six saw sub 94s, including two sub 90s.

New Darts

The new darts thing shouldn’t be an issue, unless he starts losing with them. So far there have been a couple of sub 90s but plenty of heavy scoring as well. He has been using them in practice for 5-6 weeks now so he is used to them.

We have backed Smith outright but do we hedge by backing the dangerous Dobey? I have to say yes.

Dobey has given Smith plenty of bother this year and Smith is clearly feeling more pressure. He says that he enjoys playing the big names to test himself, but he’ll need to be more positive tonight against not one of the really big names.

2023 World Matchplay Tuesday tip: 1 point Chris Dobey to win @ 3.00 with BET365, Betfair

-JamesPunt