2023 World Matchplay Wednesday Tips – JP
2023 World Matchplay Wednesday Preview
James Punt was back on top form last night with 3 winners from 4 tips. He’s hoping to send the bookies running for cover again tonight, check out James’ 2023 World Matchplay Wednesday tips below.
Tuesday Thoughts
A mixed night at the office yesterday. Three of the four tips won for a 3.26 point profit, but our 2 point ante post outright selection, Michael Smith lost. That means running total is -3.51 points.
Our other ante post selection, Luke Humphries is now the 5.00 favourite and he plays his second round match later tonight. With MVG, Gerwyn Price and Michael Smith all out, the tournament is up for grabs and the remaining 12 players will now, inevitably, be thinking of winning it.
That might mean some players getting ahead of themselves which can be problematic. Seven of the players left have yet to win a ranking major and they might be more inclined to get too excited.
Eight of the last ten Matchplays were won by one of the top 4 seeds. At the moment only one of them is left, Peter Wright, who is third match up tonight.
Brendan Dolan vs. Damon Heta
MVG slayer, Brendan Dolan, is being written off before a dart is thrown. He is the 3.40 outsider with Heta the 1.36 favourite.
Dolan fully deserved his win over MVG. It was not a case of van Gerwen having an off night, he averaged a shade under 99, but he couldn’t kill off Dolan.
The History Maker is nothing if not tenacious, and the number of times he hit a big treble with his third dart was incredible. Every time he did, you could feel Van Gerwen wince. It looks like a 60 is incoming, but no, it’s a ton, Time and time again. Death by a thousand cuts. MVG didn’t panic, assuming that Dolan would eventually start missing, but he didn’t and then it was over.
Dolan’s seasonal average is just 92.51, which is very close to the tour average. He has won seven of his last ten matches and like Ryan Searle, he reached a semi-final in a Players Championship event last week. There have been a couple of ton plus averages in his last ten matches and that constitutes a hot streak in relative terms for Dolan.
Heta On Form
Damon Heta is averaging 94.84 in 2023 which is a 2.71 drop on his 2022 average. Ironically, he has won two titles already and both in the last five weeks. He is in great form and feeling confident. He has won eighteen of his last twenty matches. This is a mismatch surely?
Their H2H record suggests not. It is Brendan Dolan who holds a 4-1 H2H record and not only that, he has beaten Heta to nil twice in those five matches. Damon Heta finally got a win vs. Dolan in their last match, a 6-3 win on the Euro Tour in April.
Dolan is unlikely to go on and win the title, people expect Heta to win this and possibly the title. That brings its own pressure while Dolan is, or should be, freerolling. He has picked up £15k, very much secured his place in the top 32, and anything else is a bonus.
Crowd Support
He will know he can beat Heta, he will probably have the crowd on his side and if he can just do what he did the other night, he will make this more difficult for Heta than the odds suggest. If there is one thing I have learned about Dolan over the years, it is that he is very underestimated.
He has won six PDC titles, reached a World Cup quarter final (2019), a Players Championship finals semi-final (2021), European Championship semi-final (2012) and a Grand Slam and UK Open quarter final (2016, 2014). Of his six floor titles, I’d be surprised if he went off less than 151.00 in any. That didn’t stop him winning.
Pressure On Heta
Heta might get ahead of himself and he will know that his record on majors has not been great in the last year. Since reaching the UK Open quarter final in 2022, he has gone out early in the next eight TV tournaments.
He has won just five matches including his first round here and two group matches at the Grand Slam. Second round matches won? None.
Heta has to be respected given his great recent form, but he will be feeling it tonight. Dolan won’t get ahead of himself and he will just grind away and hope to do what he did vs. MVG.
2023 World Matchplay Wednesday Tip: 1 point Brendan Dolan to win +3.5 legs @ 1.73 with Boylesports
Jonny Clayton vs. Dimitri van den Bergh
Jonny Clayton laboured to a 10-8 win over Gabriel Clemens in the first round. He only averaged 87 and was a bit tearful at the end of the match, saying that his father was ill and we have to assume that is what impacted on his performance. I have no idea about what the situation with his father is now and that is enough to make me avoid this match.
We have an ante post bet on Clayton to win the quarter, so hopefully everything is OK now and Jonny can get back to playing his best stuff, but for obvious reasons, this is a match to avoid.
Van den Bergh lived up to his tournament specialist reputation by beating Ross Smith 10-8. Dimitri averaged 101 in that match and probably should have won by a bigger margin. He has a 9-7 H2H record with Clayton, in 2023 it’s 2-2.
Clayton is the 1.80 favourite with Van den Bergh 2.10. If I had a gun to my head and had to have a bet, I would go for Van den Bergh. But I don’t, so I won’t.
2023 World Matchplay Wednesday Tip: No Bet
Peter Wright vs. Ryan Searle
Peter Wright beat a disappointing Andrew Gilding 10-4 in the first round. Wright was not happy with his performance but a 96 average was a night and day improvement on his form before he took a month off.
He went on a cruise and had a bit of a reset. Has it done the trick? We shall see, but he now knows that he has a realistic chance of another title, as have all the remaining players. He doesn’t have a bank of recent form to draw on, so his H2H form with Searle is the only reasonable guide as to what may happen tonight.
Wright Leads H2H
Their H2H record is 9-3 to Wright but they have not met this season. They played twice in 2022 and it was 1-1. They have only played four stage matches and Wright won three of them. Wright and Searle played a first to 11 leg match in November 2021, the Players Championship Finals final, which Wright won 11-10. Head to Head wise, it’s advantage Wright.
Ryan Searle was very impressive when beating Raymond van Barneveld 10-4 in the first round. He averaged 105 and just steamrolled a disappointing RVB. That Barney was poor was of no consequence to Searle, he just went through him. It will have been a big confidence boost for Searle.
Strange Season Searle
He has had a strange season, winning PC1 in February, being runner up in PC4, reaching the semi-final of ET1 and was runner up in PC6 in early March. After that, nothing much and he didn’t actually play that much.
Heavy Metal skipped four Players Championship events and he didn’t play at all in June. He bounced back to better form just last week, reaching the semi-final of PC15. He averaged 107 in a 6-3 win over Jeffrey de Zwaan but his other matches were nothing outstanding, certainly little to suggest he was about to have a big run here.
This is a hard one. We have one player coming back from the abyss and having played just the one match in four or five weeks against another who had a modest run on the floor last week and played a brilliant first round match.
No Guarantees
If Searle plays like he did against Barney he wins this, but there is no guarantee that he will. He averaged 107 against de Zwaan last week but followed that up with a modest 93 to beat Gabriel Clemens 6-5 in the next round. In April he averaged 109 in one match and followed that up with a 94 and a 5-6 defeat.
Earlier in the season he was following up big averages with more big averages, but as the season went on, it was a big score, followed by a modest one, and often a defeat. Trying to guess where his game is, is impossible.
Searle is the marginal outsider at 2.00, with Wright at 1.91. I like to have an idea of what’s going on before having a bet and this is close to betting blind. No bet.
2023 World Matchplay Wednesday Tip: No Bet
Luke Humphries vs. Dirk van Duijvenbode
The big match of the evening in terms of our remaining outright selections. Luke Humphries is now the favourite to win the title but that means nothing unless he does just that.
He has won eight of his last ten matches, picked up his first Euro Tour title less than three weeks ago and won PC15 last Monday. There is nothing wrong with his form.
He averaged 102 in his 10-2 demolition of Jose de Sousa in the first round. His seasonal win rate is 73%, bettered only by Dirk Van Duivenbode who is on 74%.
H2H
Dirk has won seven of his last ten matches and one of those losses was an 8-7 defeat by Luke Humphries in the final of ET10. They have met nine times now and Luke is 6-3.
Dirk and Luke have played each other four times in 2023 and Humphries has won three. They have only met once on TV and Humphries won that 0-2 in the 2021 Grand Prix.
Two of the form players of 2023. Dirk has had to come back from a knee injury but he seems to be 100% match fit now.
Big Hitters
As we have backed Humphries for the title there is no need to be getting involved in a tricky match. Both are very big hitters and it could be a belter. Luke strikes me as the mentally tougher player and Dirk is just a bit too desperate to win a big title.
He blew it against Humphries in that Euro Tour final and when he gets frustrated, he can have a bit of a meltdown. He needs a stage title to move him up to the next level. Humphries is already there and looks ready for his first major.
Humphries is the 1.65 favourite with Van Duijvenbode 2.50. That might be a touch generous about the Dutchman but I’m not going to hedge the bet on Luke to win the title. I’ll keep the faith that he can continue his rich vein of form and move on to the next round.
I do expect a close match. In their four matches in 2023, three have gone to a deciding leg and the other was 6-4. Humphries won 27 legs to Humphries 24.
