2023 World Matchplay Thursday Tips – JP
2023 World Matchplay Thursday Preview
It is quarter finals night at the Winter Garden and James Punt is on the case. Get his 2023 World Matchplay Thursday tips below.
Wednesday Reflections
It was an interesting night last night. The sole remaining top 4 seed, Peter Wright, was sent packing by Ryan Searle, and Van den Bergh was thrashed 11-6 by Jonny Clayton.
That means there will be a new name on the trophy and Luke Humphries is now the 4.00 favourite after his extra time win over Dirk van Duijvenbode. We had one winner from two bets for a 0.75 point profit on the night. That takes the tournament tally to -2.75 points.
Joe Cullen vs. Daryl Gurney
Gurney rolled back the years to produce a sublime performance and beat Gary Anderson 11-4 in the second round. It had everything, heavy scoring and big combination finishing. Anderson averaged 102 but was reduced to being a spectator for most of the match.
Superchin feels that he is a better player now than back in 2017-2019, 180 hitting excepted. What he has done very well this week is finish. His checkout rate across the two matches is 66% and in his last ten matches, of which he has won seven, saw him checkout at 60% or more seven times. His tournament average is 99.8 and he has hit some nice form at the right time.
Cullen In Form
Joe Cullen is averaging 97.45 across his two matches and is in good form, winning eight of his last ten matches. One of his wins in last week’s Players Championships was a 6-1 defeat of Daryl Gurney.
Their H2H record is very much in favour of Cullen at 15-5. On TV it is 3-1. He has won eight of their last ten meetings and he will feel very comfortable about facing Superchin.
Cullen has played eight ranking major quarter finals and won just two, so he will be starting to get a bit tight. He has never reached a ranking major final and, with so many of the fancied players now out, he could get ahead of himself.
Nerves
We saw it in the Humphries vs. Van Duijvenbode match last night when both players went to bits at the death. Nerves and coping with them is going to be an issue for all the players still in it, and more so those that haven’t yet won a big one. Gurney of course has won two ranking majors, more than any of the other players still in the tournament.
If Gurney can repeat his level of performance against Anderson, he will be very hard to beat. Gurney has played two Matchplay quarter finals and won both. He beat Mensur Suljovic 16-13 in 2017 and Peter Wright 16-13 in 2019.
That was regarded as one of the great Matchplay performances, so he has got positive memories to draw on, despite a worrying H2H record. He did suffer a heavy defeat to Cullen here in 2018, going down 3-11 in a second round match.
Cullen Is Fav
Joe Cullen is the 1.67 favourite with Daryl Gurney 2.38. It is a tricky one. Their H2H record screams Cullen, but Gurney has looked the better player so far.
Gurney has more positive major memories to draw on but he has to forget who he is playing. It isn’t giving me many good betting match vibes, it could go either way and I can’t call the winner.
A long match? Why not. Cullen lost his quarter final here to Gary Anderson in a match that went to extra legs, Anderson winning 19-17. Gurney has won both his 16-13.
2023 World Matchplay Thursday tip: 1 point over 27.5 legs @ 1.83 with Ladbrokes, Boylesports
2023 World Matchplay Thursday tip: 0.5 point Daryl Gurney to win 16-13 @ 15.00 with Hills
Chris Dobey vs. Nathan Aspinall
The two house mates for the week will have to put that aside as they go H2H for the fourth time in 2023. They played each other three times in the Premier League. All had a 6-4 score line and Aspinall won two.
Their career H2H is 6-3 to Aspinall, but he has won five of their last six. Their tournament averages are 97.2 for Dobey, 98.3 for Aspinall. There is very little between them in the stats but Aspinall has got used to beating his pal.
180 Hitters
They hit a lot of 180s against each other in the Premier League, 23 from 30 legs played and in their last six matches, it was Dobey who hit the most maximums five times with one drawn. He does have the high 180s per leg stat for the last 12 months but the bookies make Aspinall the 1.67 favourite.
In the two matches played this week, Aspinall has hit 16 at 0.432 per leg, Dobey 10 at 0.278. Dobey hit 8 in his opening match at .0444, so his usual stats were skewed by hitting just two against Smith.
Dobey has played seven ranking quarter finals and won three, Aspinall has played eleven and won six. The Asp is the more experienced player at this level and the more successful. He reached two ranking major finals last year and of course has won the UK Open.
Bookies Favour Aspinall
Aspinall is the 1.75 favourite, Dobey 2.88. Given their H2H record, that looks a touch generous about Aspinall. A long match? Possibly. All their PL matches were reasonably long and I suspect that the two players with very similar stats over the last 12 months, and this week, should produce a tight match.
These quarter finals are long matches, best of 31 legs. The last 20 quarter finals have produced two that required extra time and 50% went over 27.5 legs. The most common scoreline is 16-14 (20%).
