2023 Hungarian GP Outright Betting Preview

After a pretty profitable weekend at Silverstone, we move onto the next race. The 2023 Hungarian GP will be held at the Hungaroring and Max Verstappen was the winner here last year. James Punt has an in depth, outright betting preview, check it out below.

2023 Hungarian GP Preview

The Hungaroring is a personal favourite having bagged a 201.00 forecast back in 2009 with Hamilton winning from Raikkonen. There was Alonso’s first F1 win at 41.00 in 2003 and going so close with Damon Hill at 151.00 back in 1997. Those were the days…

It would be nice to get something like one of those at the 2023 Hungarian GP, but my best guess is that we might just get a Red Bull winning at much shorter odds.

2023 Hungarian GP: The Track

Formula 1 first raced here in 1986 and has it has been on the calendar ever since. It was the first GP to be held behind the Iron Curtain, for those of us old enough to remember that. It is very popular with ‘real fans’, especially the Finns who always flock here in great numbers.

It helps that there lots of cheap flights to Budapest, and it is the cheapest race weekend for fans in terms of ticket prices, flights, accommodation, food and the drink. You could probably do twenty Hungarian GPs for one Las Vegas.

Purpose Built

The track is a purpose built track and is laid out in a natural amphitheatre, giving the fans a great view of the circuit. It is a compact, short lap of 4.38 kilometres featuring 14 corners. There is one fairly long straight but the rest of the lap is very busy with corners coming thick and fast.

It is a high downforce track and it has been likened to Monaco without the barriers. It is faster than Monaco but it is relatively slow, has only two DRS zones of which only the one on the straight really works. The amount of downforce required is very similar, and Monaco is a decent form guide for Hungary.

Downforce Key

It is not a power circuit and cars that can produce plenty of downforce do well, especially if that is efficient downforce. A Red Bull in other words.

Overtaking is difficult but not impossible. The layout of the track is clever in that the first corner at the end of the long straight offers up a chance to pass, but then there is a quick squirt downhill with DRS into a long, slow left hander which opens up into a right hander.

It offers the chance to dive up the inside on turn two, or the brave can try an outside line which allows for an attack into the right hander fourth corner.

This little section offers two kinds of overtaking manoeuvres for the brave and skilful, or a chance to crash for the over ambitious or less talented. After that there is little chance for even a much faster car to get past an uncooperative one in front of it.

Strange Results

For the reason of the lack of overtaking, a good qualifying is important but this is a track that has thrown up some strange results in the recent past and wins from outside of pole are common.

In the nine turbo-hybrid era races here, the pole sitter has only won three. We have winners from 10th, 8th, 4th, two from 3rd and one from 2nd.

It was Verstappen who won from 10th last year after troubles in qualifying and Perez will no doubt be delighted be to going qualifying on a track where the stewards are very hot on track limits. It does have parallels with the Red Bull Ring in that respect.

Ocon won from eighth in 2021 thanks to a first corner pile up taking out four cars immediately and two more shortly after the restart with crash damage. Verstappen started 3rd but picked up damage which hurt performance and could only finish 9th. It is a track which looks a bit Mickey Mouse, but it often produces a lot of drama.

Driver Records

Lewis Hamilton has the best record in Hungary with four wins in the turbo hybrid era. He has been runner up for the last two years and only twice absent from the podium.

Verstappen has one win, last year, and a couple of 2nd places in terms of podiums. Fernando Alonso got his first win here, and in the turbo hybrid era, with poor tools at his disposal, he has always finished top 8.

Pierre Gasly has three top 6 finishes from five starts. Carlos Sainz has always been a steady performer here, 3rd and 4th for the last two years and only once outside the top 9 with a DNF in 2015.

Lance Stroll was 4th three years ago but otherwise pointless. Charles Leclerc has also struggled with two DNF’s and never better than 4th. Perez has never finished higher than last year’s 5th place and only had three top 10s from the nine turbo hybrid era races.

The Weather

It is usually hot and dry here but rain has been a feature at times. This summer, southern and central Europe is basically melting or on fire, so I expect it to be very hot and that could impact on tyre performance and it will be tricky to cool the cars. Might we see a few heat induced retirements?

The forecast for this weekend is very lively. Friday, 27 degrees with high humidity and a 70% chance of showers/thunderstorms in the afternoon. Saturday is set to be 27 degrees, partly cloudy with a now decreasing chance of shower/thunderstorms. Sunday is forecast to be 33 degrees but dry.

Qualifying could be a bit of a lottery if it is hit by a downpour and we get a wet or wet– drying track. However, anytime the forecast says showers, it means the track may get wet, not that it will.

2023 Hungarian GP: Team-by-Team

Red Bull

Continue to dominate with Max Verstappen winning the last six in a row and eight from ten in 2023. Perez on the other hand is floundering. I have never seen such a collapse in confidence by any driver, especially in qualifying.

He has gone from getting two race pole positions in the first five races, to not even being able to make it out of Q1 at Silverstone. His average qualifying position in 2023 is now 10.1, and in the last five, 14.8. Nico Hulkenberg in a Haas has made Q3 more often than Perez in a Red Bull. It’s pathetic.

He remains 19 points clear of Alonso in the championship but he should be getting a podium every race and he has managed just one in the last five. With rain a possibility for qualifying (for the 5th race weekend in a row) and on a track where track limits are an issue, he is bound to screw it up again.

The bad news for their competitors is that Red Bull will have an upgrade this weekend. New sidepods said to be worth up to 0.2 seconds. The team are not expecting the Hungaroring to be one of their better circuits but that just means a smaller margin of victory.

Mercedes

Still second in the Constructors’ race but despite the major change in design direction, they are still way off Red Bull and have finished behind an Aston Martin in Montreal, a Ferrari in Austria and a McLaren at Silverstone.

They are operationally very sound and can get everything they can from the car, but it’s still not a very good one. Getting beaten on merit by a customer team at Silverstone was a bit of a wakeup call after all the positive vibes after ditching the zero pod design. They still have a way to go, especially in qualifying.

Ferrari

Executed the race badly at Silverstone and from starting 4th and 5th, they finished 9th and 10th. With McLaren increasingly joining the party near the top, the pressure on them just grows and they do not need any more pressure. They have a difficult car to set up and operationally they are very weak.

Their one lap pace is good but there is always something not quite right, always an area of weakness and scoring just two podiums all season is a very poor return on investment. Sainz may be able to drag his car into the top 6 come Sunday but there is little to get excited about at Ferrari.

Aston Martin

So clearly best of the rest in the first six races of the season, they have been passed by Mercedes and Alonso’s 2nd place in Canada excepted, they have been outside the top 4 in the last four races and Stroll is not making much of a contribution.

They are on a par with Ferrari now and with McLaren in the ascendancy they are beginning to look a bit stretched. There is already talk about them having overachieved and looking at the long term plan rather than chasing 2nd place in 2023.

Their car does have good low speed corner performance so this track may suit more than the likes of Silverstone and the Red Bull ring. Alonso goes well here and he is one to keep an eye on this weekend. This may well be Alonso’s last chance of getting a win this season and even those hopes rest on Red Bull having a problem with Verstappen.

McLaren

Surprised even themselves at Silverstone, but their pace was real. The big question now is, was it track specific? I believe it was, up to a point. Their car was always good in fast corners, so it was a track that was always going to suit them, but a 2nd and 4th place finish was exceptional.

Their last two car upgrades have improved the car, they are on the right track, but the last two circuits have suited them. The Hungaroring is the acid test as to how much of an allrounder they now have. Slow corners and a hot track would have been poison to them a few races ago, so if they can get a top 6 finish here, they will be delighted.

There should be another upgrade this weekend, for both cars this time, and no doubt that will be aimed at their slow corner deficiency. The 30 degree air temps and high track temperatures could be much more of a problem come Sunday. Norris says the car is still ‘terrible’ in slow corners

Alpine

Silverstone was the team’s third scoring blank in 2023 and they have scored just five points from the last three races (Williams have scored ten). They are not going forward anymore and will be hoping that a return to a slower, high downforce track will allow them to get some more points on the board, and they should. They will have a new front wing this weekend

Williams

On a bit of a roll but the slow speed nature of this track may not help. Albon has two points finishes here for Red Bull but it would be a positive surprise if they were to add to their tally on Sunday.

Haas

A wet qualifying would be good news for Haas but their problem is not on Saturdays.

Alfa Romeo

I can sense that Bottas might be close to the points this weekend. He just missed out at Monaco with an 11th place finish and he was 10th in Canada which has its share of slow corners. Bottas qualified 8th here last year but had to retire with a fuel system problem.

They have sacked their technical director and the upgrade introduced at Silverstone was not effective. High speed stuff sees them at their worst so maybe a return to a slower track will give them an outside chance of a point.

Alpha Tauri

Have a new driver line up from this weekend onwards. Daniel Ricciardo, a former winner here, rejoins the team, replacing the disappointing Nyck De Vries.

Ricciardo says he has rediscovered his love for F1 but I imagine he might lose it pretty quickly in the Alpha Tauri, the worst car on the grid. It doesn’t like slow corners and the major upgrade introduced at Silverstone didn’t seem to make any noticeable difference.

2023 Hungarian GP: Ante Post Selections

Like most races this season, there is not a lot of ante post value. The race win market is all but useless for betting such is Verstappen’s dominance. The battle to be best of the rest is very competitive.

We have had four different drivers for four different teams finishing second in the last four races. It depends on whose car is best suited to each track. This weekend it should be Aston Martin who can be best of the rest.

Track To Suit Alonso

I like Alonso’s form here and as the car is best in slower corners, the track should suit. They have dropped down the order a little bit but Alonso’s 2nd places in Monaco and Montreal are good pointers.

He is only a 2.25 shot to do so and Stroll a 1.73 shot for a points finish. Stroll has a mixed record at best, or fairly poor to be honest. He has not impressed this season.

McLaren’s resurgence should be less spectacular around this track and in this heat. Mercedes got a 2-3 last year and they could be a threat, but their qualifying pace means they can be better value post qualifying. It is just about worth a bet on Alonso, but the odds are hardly stunning.

2023 Hungarian GP Tip: 2 points Fernando Alonso to finish on the podium @ 2.25 with Ladbrokes, Unibet

The majority of winning tips this season have come on race day and I will be holding fire till then, with maybe something for qualifying on Saturday. Updates will be posted as normal on Saturday and Sunday.

-JamesPunt