2023 Hungarian GP Qualifying Update & Tips – JP
2023 Hungarian GP Qualifying Update
James Punt has already posted an outright betting preview. You can read that here, his 2023 Hungarian GP Qualifying Update is below.
2023 Hungarian GP Preview
The two free practice sessions were an exercise in confusion and left us no further down the road in terms of understanding the pecking order for this weekend.
FP1 started dry but Sergio Perez (who else?) crashed before he had even set a time. That delayed running while the car was recovered and by the time we got going again, it started to drizzle.
Some drivers got a few laps in while the track was relatively dry, but the rain soon started to get very heavy and in the end, seven drivers had failed to set a time and those that had been set were meaningless.
Dry FP2
FP2 was dry but teams were doing different things at different times with different drivers. Trying to generate as much data as possible having effectively missed FP1.
Things are further complicated this weekend by the FIA trying out a sustainability experiment. Teams have fewer sets of tyres and the Alternative Tyre Allocation model for this weekend, so they were trying to use them effectively.
Part of this change is that the teams will be allocated mandated tyres for qualifying. The drivers will have to use the hard compound in Q1, the medium in Q2 and the soft in Q3.
Baffling Times
The FP2 times were baffling. Russell, who was 1st in FP1 was 20th in FP2. Piastri, 2nd in FP1 was 19th in FP2 after he damaged his floor, but his teammate Norris, was 2nd. Hamilton was just 16th, Verstappen 11th, Perez 18th, Tsunoda 4th and so on.
Red Bull are introducing upgrades this weekend and Perez smashing his car up at the start of FP1 wasn’t a great start. They were then not quick in FP2 but Verstappen said he was just saving tyres and not pushing.
They remain confident of returning to the top today. It was all as clear as soup. To compound the lack of value of the times set on Friday, the conditions were wet in FP1 and relatively cool in FP2. Air temperature was 25 degrees, and the track just 32.
For today’s qualifying, track evolution may be key. Showers have kept the track ‘green’ so far and it will grip up as the rubber goes down, but any showers will just set it back again.
Crucial FP3
FP3 was crucial as a guide to who has what kind of pace but ended up being almost as confusing as FP1 & 2. Clearly the track is evolving. When drivers did their flying laps made a big difference. One team who may be better than where they ended up is Alfa Romeo.
They set their flying laps on the new softs around the half way point in the session. They ended up 10th and 12th, but had they gone out late? Top 7? Aston Martin went early as well, so Alonso looks better than 9th place.
The spread of times on a short lap like this should be small, but from first to last was separated by 1.345 seconds and first to tenth 0.678. Very small margins will yield plenty of places. The drivers will make a difference, both good and bad. A mistake will be punished, a perfectly executed lap will gain a lot of places.
2023 Hungarian GP Qualifying: Experimental Format
This experimental qualifying format might further mix things up. McLaren were very good on the mediums but they have to run the softs in Q3. Might they be a bit too hard on that compound? The Red Bull didn’t look at its best on the soft either, whereas the Mercedes did, Hamilton setting the fastest time.
And I haven’t mentioned track limits. They are not policed in free practice but they are from now on to the end of the race. I was watching closely in FP3 and there were plenty of quick laps that would have been disallowed, so expect some controversy.
With the Alternative Tyre Allocation format, we are stepping into a bit of an unknown, on a track that is still improving and about to be actively policed for exceeding track limits. Short of a rain shower, you couldn’t have many more variables.
Shortlist
Who is on the shortlist?
Hamilton was 0.250 faster than the Red Bulls. I assume that there is a bit more to come from them. Perez will be very tense and I don’t fancy his chances. Just getting into Q3 is a realistic target, never mind a front row.
Verstappen has to be favourite and he is at a drifting 1.62. Hamilton is 7.00, Norris 9.00, Leclerc 13.00, Russell 26.00 and Alonso 29.00.
On a driver’s track, Hamilton is in the frame. Qualifying has not been their strength but the hot track helps them get the tyres switched on.
Norris is in the new, improved McLaren which wasn’t expected to be as competitive here as at Silverstone. That it is means they are back and can be competitive anywhere now. Will they be too harsh on the tyres in Q3?
Can Alonso drag out a mega lap? Or are they now slipping out of the frame? He was over 0.500 seconds off the pace, but he went early in FP3. And then we have the super dark horses of Bottas and Hulkenberg.
Narrow Track
This track is narrow and it is hard to get a clean lap when we have 20 cars on it. Q1 will have everyone on the hards and it could be that they try a low fuel flier in the opening minutes and then fuel up and go for flying, cool down, flying laps, hoping to benefit from the evolving conditions?
It could be messy with drivers getting in each other’s way. We could lose a big name or two (Perez?) in Q1, especially if the track limits come into play.
Hamilton has yet to qualify higher than 3rd this season, but that was pre-design change, so his pace could be real. Alonso was 2nd in Monaco, Miami and 3rd in Saudi and Montreal. If he isn’t in the top 4, Aston are going backwards. The updated McLaren does look to be a different car and if they can get a top 4, they’re back.
In Norris’ favour is that he has qualified 3rd, 7th, 4th and 2nd in the last four qualifying sessions and that makes him second only to Verstappen over the last four. To pour some cold water on that, all those sessions were damp/wet and cool. Ideal conditions for the McLaren with its ability to heat up the front tyres. The same conditions would have worked against Hamilton and Mercedes.
Track Limits
I do expect Verstappen to still nick pole, but there may be a scenario where he gets caught out by track limits and that could open the door to a driver putting together a perfect lap. Who can do that? Quality drivers such as Hamilton, Alonso and Norris.
Aston Martin’s form may be on the wane. I expected them to be very close to the pace this weekend, and they still might, but their best qualifying sessions have been earlier in the season. Norris is on a rapid ascendancy and he is a special talent. Hamilton hasn’t had the best car for qualifying but conditions may suit on what is a strong track for him.
The temptation is to go for Norris in the very much improved McLaren. It could be better than we think, but will the hot conditions help Mercedes and hinder McLaren? That Norris was faster on the medium than the softs suggest that is the case. He MUST use the softs in Q3 and my vote goes to Lewis Hamilton.
