Things are much clearer after yesterdays qualifying session and a pecking order, a weather dependant pecking, order has been established.

Yesterday qualifying session saw our two bets lose. Lando Norris’ chances went down the drain in Q1 when he went off the track which badly damaged his floor. Given that most of the cars downforce is generated by the floor, he was losing a big chunk of time from then on in. About 0.5 worth of time according to the team. That still wouldn’t have been enough to move him into the top 2, but it cost him a couple of places. It was the drying track which really did for his chances.

McLaren have bet that this weekend will be a wet one and have set the car up accordingly. They were almost a match for Red Bull in sector two, the slower, twisty downforce rewarding sector, but giving up time in S1 and S3 were straight line speed dominates. That means they have put plenty of downforce on the car, a very good wet weather set up. However, in the dry, not so good.

Carlos Sainz had been setting good times in Q1 and Q2 and we were in the game for a top 3 finish. However, Ocon’s crash late in Q2 meant a barrier needed to be repaired. That delayed the start of Q3 by 10 minutes and all the while the track was drying out. That was taking the track conditions away from Sainz skill set and he could only muster the fifth best time in the end. A small mistake in his last flying lap ended his hopes of matching his teammate.

Ferrari look to have set the car up with less downforce than McLaren and the drier the track the better for them, so the delay to Q3 allowed Leclerc to do this one lap thing more than when it was wet.

Mercedes seem to have effectively split their strategies. They have a new low drag rear wing on Hamilton’s car while Russell is running with more wing/downforce/drag. Russell will be hoping for rain, Hamilton wanting things to be dry.

It doesn’t matter what set up Red Bull have, it is still going to be the fastest, such is their advantage. They can generate plenty of downforce without generating huge amounts of drag. The car is perfect for a track like this, running close to the ground, even in the wet, generating loads of grip. Even Perez managed to qualify third. Clearly Red Bull just need to avoid crashing and if they can do that, they win today and tomorrow.

McLaren want/need more rain, Ferrari would prefer the dry but their problems lie elsewhere. Mercedes are hedging their bets. Aston Martin confirmed where they are in the current pecking order, which is fifth. Alpine, currently having a managerial clear out in mid-season opted for a low drag/dry set up and the lower downforce caught Ocon out and he crashed at the end of Q2. They would prefer the wet stuff to stay way.

Williams say they didn’t have the downforce for the conditions which tells us that they need dry weather if they are to get Albon into the top 10 on Sunday. Albon says it was the changing conditions which caught them out and we would have done better if it was fully wet (he was sixth in the fully wet FP1).

The Weather Forecast

The forecasters were broadly correct yesterday. They underestimated how heavy the rain was going to be in the morning, but this is Spa and getting it right is hard.

For the Sprint Race the chances of rain were up to 67% when I checked this morning. A few hours later and those chances are up to 81% and things have definitely shifted towards a wet Petit Prix.

Wet conditions are likely to suit McLaren, Russell, and they will have watched what went on before the start of the Sprint Shootout and despaired. The rain stopped and the track was perfectly raceable on full wets, but no. They delayed the start until we where at the inters stage. We have to remember this for future reference. Formula 1 is heading towards being a dry formula. I can only assume that if it is raining for the start of the Sprint Race, they will delay the start of that as well. That moves things away from those drivers running more downforce for the forecast conditions. Obviously McLaren thought that Formula 1 cars were allowed to race on wet tracks. Maybe they didn’t get the memo.

The shootout qualifying started wet but OK for inters. Only Lance Stroll tried the slicks in Q2 and he ended up in the barriers to end the session. It was dry in Q3 and everyone ran on the soft slick tyres. The track temperature also rose from 18 degrees at the start of the season to 27 degrees by the end. It was still tricky, not fully dry and we saw mistakes from Leclerc and lots of mistakes for Russell who did not make the most of his higher downforce set up. Oscar Piastri was just 0.011 seconds off Verstappen’s time. The McLaren was really slow in sector 1 but flew in sector two thanks to the high downforce set up and they were decent in sector 3.

However, Piastri will need at least damp conditions for this afternoon’s sprint race. He will be a sitting duck in sector 1, down the long straight the two Ferrari’s will be looking to get his tow and get past. Having great pace in sector 2 isn’t going to help him pass anybody. He has a good set up for qualifying but a poor race set up, unless it rains of course. If it is wet, the FIA will look to delay the start as per the shootout, so he looks Donald Ducked.

Verstappen starts as the pole sitter and the 1.20 favourite. He may be a little vulnerable at the end of the Kemmel straight if the Ferrari’s get a tow and pasted Piastri. The Ferrari is going well here, wet or dry. They aren’t running a lot of wing but the car has coped well in the wet and damp conditions. Sainz is the better driver in the trickier conditions and Leclerc’s mistake on his final lap cost him pole position.

This race is only 15 laps long, so their tyre deg issues should not be as big an issue as it will be on Sunday, but it may still be a negative. They are aiming for podium finishes and the car looks capable. They are most worried about Perez coming through to beat them, Sainz says 15 laps is enough for the Red Bull to catch and pass them.

Lewis Hamilton only starts seventh after his final lap was ruined by his teammate Russell getting in his way twice in quick succession. Hamilton had the pace to be right up there and he could have a good race. Russell has been very poor all weekend, making a lot of mistakes and is hard to fancy.

Sprint Race Selections

With just over an hour to go before the start of the sprint race, the chance of rain is 84%, but the radar suggest it will start without rain, but the track may still be damp from showers earlier.

Verstappen should have this wrapped up, despite being just a fraction faster than Piastri and Sainz. I don’t think the McLaren’s set up will pay off unless we get a deluge. Perez is out of position on the grid, as is Hamilton and Leclerc’s pace is very good. Sainz may prefer changeable conditions but will he get them? With no compulsory pitstops, there is one less thing for Ferrari to screw up and I’ll take a rare chance on a red car finishing top 3. It is a hard choice. If I was sure it would wet/changeable, Sainz gets the vote, but in drier conditions, Leclerc is faster.

2 points Charles Leclerc to finish on the sprint race podium @ 2.75 with Unibet

-JamesPunt