2023 Ripon and Newbury Saturday Tips – DS
2023 Ripon and Newbury Saturday Preview
York is coming up next week and the Ebor Meeting is always packed with quality. We already have a couple of ante-post previews on our blog. Our 25/1 ante-post Ebor Handicap tip is here. Dave Stevos also posted two bets for the Gimcrack and Nunthorpe, that ante-post e/w double is here. This weekend, we are in action at the Curragh as well as the UK. We’ll be doing a separate Irish preview, Dave’s 2023 Ripon and Newbury Saturday selections are below.
1.50 Newbury – Geoffrey Freer Stakes (Group 3)
There’s a bit of rain forecast before racing at Newbury. The ground is currently good to soft and with what is due to fall, it’ll likely be good to soft, soft in places by the time of this race. The second fav Kemari has never won on softer than good. He did place on his first try on soft at Longchamp but the second time he ran on it, he was beat out of sight. Proceed with caution if there is soft in the description.
Arrest certainly won’t mind a drop of rain. The son of Frankel has flopped on good to firm the last twice, at Ascot in a G2 and in the Epsom Derby. Prior to that he had won 3/4 on soft, good to soft and good to firm and he was also second in a G1 in France on heavy. Forecast rain and the Frankie Factor have seen this horse halve in price already into 2/1.
Tight Race
This is a far tighter race than the odds might suggest. The top two are rated 108 and 110 so on paper, most of them don’t have to improve much to figure. At the current prices, Luisa Casati is of interest on the rain softened ground. Trained by in form Tom Ward, this daughter of Vadamos gained a deserved win at Listed level three starts ago at Goodwood (12f gd/sft). She ran through the line strongly and shaped like an extra furlong would suit.
Ward kept her at 12f for her next start which came on fast ground in a Haydock G2. She could only manage a 4L 5th but she ran on pretty nicely late on and again, looked as though further would suit. Last time out she tried 14f at Goodwood but the ground was bottomless and she struggled.
Saturday’s conditions should suit her much better and her 3lb weight for sex allowance puts her right in the mix on the figures (rated 104). If she can repeat the form of her G2 run at Haydock, Luisa Casati is more than capable of nicking some more black type at odds of 25/1.
2023 Ripon and Newbury Saturday Tip: Luisa Casati e/w @ 25/1
2.05 Newmarket – Grey Horse Handicap (Class 3)
With thunderstorms forecast overnight, there is unlikely to be any firm in the going description at Newmarket. Currently, it is good to firm, good in places but one would expect it to be closer to good, good to soft in places by the time of this race tomorrow if the weather forecast is correct. The horse I like at a huge price here is Lethal Angel off a mark of 61 (1lb out of the weights).
This grey mare has got unfinished business in this unique race. In 2019 she finished 4th of 16 off a mark of 70, beat 2.25L. In 2020 she could only manage 7th, beaten 5L off 68. Apart from those runs, she has a good record on the July course at HQ. She was beat a nose off 68 on her first visit (June 2019) on good to soft and she was then beat 1.25L off 70 a month later.
Her new trainer Brett Johnson has given her three runs this season, all quiet. The handicapper has given her a real chance now, dropping her 5lbs to a mark of 60. She won off 57 and was placed off 65 at the backend of last season so she Is competitively weighted and she is 9lbs lower than she was when 4th in this a few years ago. It isn’t beyond the realms of possibility that Brett Johnson has targeted this race with her due to the size of the pot so at odds of 40/1, Lethal Angel is the e/w selection.
2023 Newmarket Saturday Tip: Lethal Angel e/w @ 40/1 (5 places)
2.25 Newbury – Highclere Castle Gin Handicap (Class 3)
An open looking race but not one I have a strong opinion on. The two Millman horses should go well and at bigger odds, Katey Kontent could run a big race if handling the likely ease in the ground. However, I’m more than happy to sit this one out. No bet.
2023 Ripon and Newbury Saturday Tip: No Bet
2.40 Ripon – Silver Trophy Handicap (Class 4)
In races over this trip at Ripon it usually pays to be drawn high. It is also a track that often suits prominent racers. With rain forecast this evening and overnight, an ability to handle an ease will be important too. One horse that ticks all the aforementioned boxes at big odds is Jordan Electrics for Jim Goldie and Billy Garrity.
Since winning successive races at Ayr (5f gd/fm) and Hamilton (5f gd/sft) in May this 7yo has gone off the boil. Those wins came off 70 and 74 and he is back down to 73 now after four below par runs. However, given how he was ridden, I’m not too sure he was trying overly hard in those races. He was held up in all of them, strange tactics for a horse that was close to the pace for all eight of his career wins.
It was a nice pot he landed at Hamilton in May and Jim Goldie might have earmarked this £25k race as his next target. Good to soft ground will be fine and though his last two wins came over 5f, the son of Dandy Man has won five times at today’s trip of 6f. Off a pound lower than he was when winning at Hamilton, Jordan Electrics can hopefully break well and make a bold bid from stall 15 at odds of 33/1.
2023 Ripon and Newbury Saturday Tip: Jordan Electrics e/w @ 33/1 (5 places)
3.00 Newbury – Summer Sizzler Handicap (Class 2)
Now that he is back on an easier surface, Alpha Capture could go well for Haggas and Marquand. By Cotai Glory, this horse has tumbled down the weights this season. Beat a combined distance of nearly 30L in his last three turf runs on good/good to firm, his rating has dropped to 85 from 100.
On his 2yo form on good to soft, he should be more than capable of winning off that rating. He was only a short head behind Cold Case (now rated 111) in the big sales race at Doncaster and he had Holguin (rated 110) and Galeron (109) over 1.5L behind him. His last start on good to soft saw him land a Listed contest at York.
On his last few runs this 3yo has been a shade slow from the stalls. The first time visor might sharpen him up in that department and even if he doesn’t break on terms, he’ll have more time to recover over this 7f trip. Maybe this gelding just hasn’t trained on, but there’s also a chance he might just want an ease in the ground. At odds of 14/1, it is worth taking a chance that it is the latter scenario that holds true.
2023 Ripon and Newbury Saturday Tip: Alpha Capture e/w @ 14/1 (4 places)
3.15 Ripon – Great St Wilfrid Handicap (Class 2)
A maximum field of 20 runners have been declared for Ripon’s Blue Riband race. The same principles apply to this race as they did for the earlier race on the card. A high draw is preferable, as is evidenced by six of the last seven winners being drawn 13, 10, 19, 15, 17 and 19. Last year Intrinsic Bond managed to win from stall 6 but usually, those drawn high dominate.
From stall 19, Hyperfocus could outrun his odds of 33/1. Trained by Tim Easterby, this 9yo has a fine record at Ripon. His last win, in April of this year, came over 5f here on soft ground and he beat last year’s winner of this race, Intrinsic Bond, by a head off 93. He has also won over 6f here, off 90 on good to soft in 2019.
Overall, Hyperfocus has career form figures of 120541 at Ripon. The 0 came in this race in 2020 but it was a better run than it looked as he was only 2.5L behind the winner and he was drawn low. His last two runs at Goodwood (6f hvy) and York (6f gd) have been poor but he shaped ok off 95 on his two previous runs. He races off his last winning mark, he has an ideal draw and he is a prominent racer. So, at odds of 33/1, Hyperfocus is worth backing e/w.
2023 Ripon and Newbury Saturday Tip: Hyperfocus e/w @ 33/1 (6 places) nb
3.35 Newbury – Hungerford Stakes (Group 2)
On his last UK start in stakes company on rain softened ground, Misty Grey got to within 1.5L of Holguin at Chester (7f sft). He was 0.5L behind Witch Hunter in that Listed race and they meet off identical terms again here. The Hannon horse is 16s and the Dascombe horse is 33s. I’m not sure there should be that big a difference in price between them.
Last time out Misty Grey had an outing in a Racing League handicap at Chepstow. He only finished 8th off 107 but he was just 2.75L behind the winner Ramazan to whom he was conceding 9lbs. Now, he returns to G2 company and he has run plenty of solid races at this level before.
A year ago he was beat a head in a Goodwood G3 by Double or Bubble and 2L in a G2 at Newmarket by Pogo. The latter horse re-opposes here and he is an 11/2 shot. On this ground, I’d be very hopeful that Dascombe’s charge can turn that form around. 33/1 looks far too big about Misty Grey so he is the e/w selection.
