2023 Dutch GP Raceday Preview

James Punt has already got two winning wagers in the bag from his qualifying update. Norris to take pole e/w at 7.50 and Albon to outqualify Gasly at 1.67. Now, it is time for his 2023 Dutch GP Raceday preview, check it out below.

2023 Dutch GP Raceday Update

Close but no cigar for our bets in qualifying yesterday. Norris landed the place part of the pole bet but the track was just too dry by the time they restarted Q3 after Sergeant’s crash. He also admitted that the second half of his lap was poor.

Albon beat Gasly very comfortably. The winning margin was way over the 0.10 I had hoped for. Verstappen put in a stormer for his final run while Norris let his lap slip after setting the fastest first sector. As for Leclerc, the less said about that pick the better.

On to today’s race. The weather forecasters have been very accurate so far, unlike the TV pundits who have been predicting rains of biblical proportions.

Today’s forecast is very similar to yesterday. Showers in the morning, petering out around lunchtime and the start of the race should see a dry track with only a 20% chance of rain showers forecast for the duration of the race.

Max Odds On

Verstappen is the 1.18 favourite as he goes for a hattrick of Dutch GP victories and his ninth win of 2023 in a row. Odds for the money buyers, but not for me.

We have already backed Lando Norris to win ‘without Max Verstappen’ at 4.00 and he is now a 2.35 shot to do so. George Russell looks a big threat to that bet. The Mercedes is traditionally a better race car than qualifier, but fingers crossed.

The race is unlikely to be straight forward wet or dry. The lack of any runoff areas means that if a car breaks down or has to retire mid lap for whatever reason, it is likely that a virtual or actual safety car will be deployed. The race strategists will earn their money today and luck may play a big part in some drivers’ races.

If we do see any rain, do not be surprised to see a red flag. The F2 race was utterly chaotic in terms of crashes on an ultra-low grip surface even on a dry track.

2023 Dutch GP Raceday: Team by Team prospects

Red Bull

The best place to be is at the front and Verstappen is expected to have a nice Sunday drive, delighting his army of fans. He will eventually have a problem, but predicting when is pure guess work.

Sergio Perez continues to struggle in qualifying and only starts from seventh place, which is actually better than his seasonal average.

He started from the pit lane in 2021 and finished eighth and he has improved on his qualifying position by just over 5 places across the first twelve races this season. He started ninth in Hungary and was able to finish third and that gives us an idea of what he can do today.

McLaren

Since Lando Norris got his upgraded car at the Austrian GP his finishing positions have been 4/2/2/7 and that was from qualifying positions of 4/2/3/7. He has been able to hold his starting position very well, so fingers crosse he can do so again.

Oscar Piastri has had a bit of a bumpier ride this weekend and only starts from eighth. He hasn’t quite managed to hold position as well as Norris since he got the upgrade at Silverstone, dropping a place at Silverstone & Hungary and retiring at Spa. He has a better car than Sainz ahead of him so I think he can move up the order but perhaps not by much.

Mercedes

A tale of two qualifying sessions for the two Mercedes drivers. Hamilton, who was in better form coming into this weekend, got blocked in Q2 and that meant he didn’t have the chance to do a cool down/battery recharge lap before his final run and he starts a lowly thirteenth.

George Russell, on the other hand, had a clear run and starts third. The last time he started on the second row was way back at the second race of the season in Jeddah where he finished fourth. He has a better car now, not a massively better car, but he should be looking to adding to his solitary podium finish of 2023.

Podium Aim

Mercedes have had at least one car on the podium here in the two races since the track returned to the calendar in 2021. That will be Russell’s target.

As for Hamilton, he was in the top five in the three practice sessions and he has the pace to make up places. Perez has a faster car but Hamilton is quicker than all but the Red Bulls and McLarens ahead of him. A top 6 finish is not out of the question but overtaking is not easy here.

In 2021 the top five finished in their starting order and of the top 6 on the grid, only Sainz dropped a place to finish seventh. Last year Fernando Alonso started from thirteenth and finished sixth, so it can be done.

Williams

Albon qualified fourth and Sargeant tenth. The car is there totally on merit. Albon is a great defensive driver and I don’t expect him to be dropping down the order by much, despite having an average finishing position of 11.7. His highest finish in 2023 is seventh place in Canada, but he only started tenth that day so he should be looking at his best result of the season in a much stronger car than he had back then.

Logan Sargeant’s previous best qualifying position was fourteenth at Silverstone and he finished eleventh. The car is better now. He will struggle to keep Hamilton at bay however, and he is no stick on for a points finish.

Aston Martin

Have brought some upgrades for the car this weekend, including a new floor. That has improved their pace and Alonso got his best qualifying result since his third in Montreal.

Stroll should have done better than his eleventh place, but he generally does better over a race distance by a place or two. He too will struggle to keep Hamilton behind him but a top ten finish looks well within his grasp.

Alonso has finished in sixth place here for the last two years and a hat-trick would be no surprise. Perez should get the better of him and it might just be an Alonso vs. Hamilton battle for that sixth place.

Ferrari

The sixth different manufacturer in the top six on the grid. The car looks a real handful. Charles Leclerc had a bizarre crash in Q3, just not able to make the car turn.

Both drivers continuously went off the track at turn one and he said the car was understeering in one corner and oversteering in the next. I would not be surprised to see one or both red cars getting a DNF today. Dropping down the order at the very least seems to their fate today.

Alpine

Gasly has been their fastest driver this weekend but twelfth place was the best he could do. They have fallen behind Williams in terms of pace and Gasly will need some luck if he is to get a points finish.

Haas

Car upgrades for this weekend have not made much difference to performance and with race pace being their weakness so far this season, it will be interesting to see if they have addressed this weakness today.

Points look like they will be hard to come by with Hulkenberg starting fourteenth after Tsunoda’s grid penalty. Magnussen is way down in eighteenth.

Alfa Romeo

It is easy to forget that they are taking part at times. They have been pointless from the last four races and four twelfth places was the best they could muster. That looks likely to be their ceiling once again.

Zhou starts fifteenth and Bottas nineteenth. Zhou has only out qualified Bottas four times in 2023 and when he has, he has beaten him in the race three times. The only time he didn’t was in Hungary when he bogged down at the start and then crashed into Gasly at the first corner.

Alpha Tauri

After a tenth place for Tsunoda at Spa and good pace on Friday here, it is back to bottom of the pile for Alpha Tauri.

Ricciardo broke his hand in a strange crash in FP2. He choose to drive into the wall rather than Piastri’s McLaren but he completely missed the warning signs that he should slow down and prepare to stop as there was a crash ahead. He also forgot to take his hands off the steering wheel.

Reserve driver Liam Lawson was thrown in at the deep end for qualifying and starts last. He has not yet driven a dry lap in the car. Tsunoda looked in good shape on Friday, ninth and fifth in free practice but yesterday the pace had gone. A three place grid penalty for blocking Hamilton only makes things worse and he starts seventeenth.

2023 Dutch GP Raceday Summary

A processional win for Verstappen looks inevitable but safety cars look very likely and that can make things interesting. They also increase the risk betting wise as you can pick a driver to go well only to see them lose out if a safety car is deployed at the ‘wrong’ time.

Any rain showers could also mix things up but the forecast is tending to suggest it will be drier as the day goes on, as was the case yesterday.

Battle For 2nd

It will be a good battle between Norris and Russell for second place. Norris should have a car advantage but he is not nailed on for second.

Russell should have the race pace to get a podium finish and his teammate, Lewis Hamilton back in thirteenth should be able to make up a lot of ground, especially with any well timed safety cars to bunch the field. However, I was hoping for better odds than the 1.85 on offer. Ditto the 1.55 for Alonso to get a top 6 finish.

The number of classified non finishers here in the last two years has been two in both. In 2023 there have been ten races from twelve where there have been over 17.5 classified finishers and that has been the case for the last nine races in a row.

Albon Running Hot

Alex Albon is running hot right now and the Williams has come on nicely recently. Holding onto fourth might asking too much but he makes enough appeal at 4.00 to win his group bet with Ladbrokes. He is grouped with the two Ferrari’s and Oscar Piastri in the McLaren. Piastri is the 1.91 favourite to win the group but he starts four places behind Albon and making up places is not that easy here. Albon can make his car very wide when he is defending and he will be no push over. The two Ferrari’s are verging on the undriveable and their tyre wear over a race distance makes them hard to fancy on any given Sunday.

2023 Dutch GP Raceday Selections

Lewis Hamilton to beat Carlos Sainz 2 points @ 2.00 with Unibet

Alex Albon to win Group 2 1 point @ 4.00 with Ladbrokes

George Russell to finish on the podium 1 point @ 1.91 with Betfred, BET365, Hills

Lance Stroll to finish in the points 1 point @ 1.85 with SportingIndex

Over 17.5 classified finishers 1 point @ 1.73 with BET365

Zhou to beat Bottas 1 point @ 2.10 with Hills, Livescorebet

-JamesPunt