2023 Italian GP Raceday Update

After the nightmare that was last week, James Punt got back on track in style on Saturday. Sainz, advised at 5.00, took pole for us and Hulkenberg also outqualified Magnussen, landing our 2 pointer at 1.73. James is hoping to send the bookies running for cover again today, check out his 2023 Italian GP Raceday preview below.

2023 Italian GP Raceday Preview

It was good to get back to winning ways with our two qualifying bets coming in yesterday. Our two ante post bets on Albon to finish top 6 and Sargeant top 10 are still live but Sargeant didn’t do the car justice and only starts fifteenth.

Carlos Sainz snatched pole position at the death by just 0.013 seconds. Never in doubt really. Max Verstappen starts second and the other Ferrari of Charles Leclerc lines up third. Sergio Perez once again couldn’t perform in qualifying and starts in fifth.

Can Sainz hold on for the win is the question on the Ferrari fans lips. The answer is probably not. The Ferrari has great one lap pace and they were able to exploit that with Sainz yesterday, but their race pace is not so good.

Tyre degradation is the reason for both. Getting the tyres warmed up quickly is good for qualifying, but they then degrade more quickly over a race distance.

Minimal Tyre Wear

The good news for Ferrari is that tyre wear at Monza is low. It is a traditional one stop race, so Ferrari have a better chance of hanging on to the tyres here than just about anywhere else.

The bad news is that Pirelli have brought the three softest tyres in their range, and the softer tyres don’t last as long. That, and also the weather is going to be hotter today and the track likewise.

While tyre wear is not a big deal here, it still exists and it is a negative factor for Ferrari, and Sainz especially. The two Ferraris appear to have slightly different set ups.

Sainz has gone for a very low downforce set up, maximising his qualifying pace. Leclerc was noticeably slower on the straights and quicker in the corners. He has a bit more rear wing for a little more downforce. That compromises lap time, but it improves tyre wear as the downforce prevents excessive sliding of the tyres which can start to overheat and degrade them.

Is Leclerc playing the long game? It looks like it. Will it be enough to beat Verstappen? Of course not. It might be enough to beat Sainz, however.

Max Relaxed

Max Verstappen was very relaxed about only qualifying second, and for obvious reasons. Red Bull have a very fast car and especially over a race distance. They always set the car up with the race distance in mind.

That is usually still enough to get pole position in any case, but if he doesn’t start from pole, it hardly matters. He has started from off pole position five times in 2023 and only failed to win two. Those were in Jeddah, where he started from fifteenth and finished second. The other was in Baku where he started second and finished second, both races won by the other Red Bull.

Since then he started ninth in Miami and won, started second in Hungary and won and he started sixth in Belgium and won.

Verstappen Odds On

Verstappen is the 1.25 favourite to win the race, Sainz 8.00 and Leclerc 17.00. Max is going for a record breaking tenth win in a row and it would seem that only a mechanical failure or accident can stop him.

Carlos Sainz said after Friday’s Free practice that the Red Bull was 0.3 to 0.5 a lap faster on the long runs and that was a lot of time over a 53 lap race.

Sainz won pole by virtue of being very fast on the straights. Verstappen got so close by being very quick through the long Parabolica corner and George Russell was making up time with very late braking.

High Downforce

The two Mercedes have opted for a high (relatively) downforce and while they will find it hard to attack on the straights, Russell might be able to hang on to the cars in front and try some late lunges at the first two chicanes. It was a good effort from Russell to qualify fourth as Mercedes’ top speed was slower than all but the McLaren’s.

Hamilton just hasn’t been on it all weekend and was never happy with the car’s balance. He starts eighth and that is more like where the car’s pace should leave it. Traditionally, the Mercedes is a better race car than qualifier, but I’m not so sure that will be the case today.

Albon In Position

Our man for a top 6 finish, Alex Albon, qualified sixth, his highest position of the timed sessions. His straight line speed was slower than just the Ferrari and Alfa Romeo. He is not expecting to be able to keep up with the Red Bulls and Ferraris and his real target is to hang on to sixth place.

Albon is faster than the McLarens and Aston Martins and it looks like our bet depends on him keeping Lewis Hamilton behind him. Both Williams have struggled on the soft compound tyre, which everyone had to use in Q3, but they were very good on the hard and mediums. That is positive news as the hard and mediums will be the preferred race tyres.

Albon was the fastest driver in sector 1 which gives him a chance to make up a place or two on the opening lap. That would buy him some time and he is a master at making his car very hard to pass. History is on our side as the driver starting from sixth place has finished top six in seven of the last nine races here.

Draggy McLaren

McLaren did as well as they could have achieved here, according to Norris, and the car is too draggy to be competitive. The two Alpha Tauris line up eleventh and twelfth which was a great result for them. Tsunoda scored a point at Spa and he is in the mix for something similar today.

Liam Lawson will be looking to put himself in the shop window and don’t rule him out of a top 10. The McLarens in front are slow on the straights and their DRS ‘boost’ was the weakest of all the cars.

Nobody is really out of position with the exception of Lance Stroll who starts last. He didn’t get a single lap in on Friday, but he was eleventh in FP3 and he should be able to make up some places. The Aston Marin has middling straight line speed and is faster than most of those immediately ahead of him. Making the points is a big ask, however.

2023 Italian GP Race Day Selections

As mentioned earlier, if Leclerc has set up with a touch more downforce, he might well have the better race pace compared to Sainz.

2023 Italian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Charles Leclerc to beat Carlos Sainz @ 2.40 with Unibet

Looking at the drivers just outside the top 10,vLiam Lawson is confusing the market makers. He is an odds on chance with many firms but as big as 3.50 with Hills. Odds on makes no appeal, but 3.50 does.

Lawson has only had one race in F1 but to finish thirteenth after just one practice session and then facing one of the hardest GPs for a long time in terms of the weather was a very creditable performance.

He has now had a full weekend of practice and qualifying to get more comfortable with the car and how it works. All those buttons and switches must be quite daunting when thrown in at the deep end.

2023 Italian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Liam Lawson to finish in the points @ 3.50 with Hills

Norris and Alonso line up ninth and tenth respectively and I fancy Alonso to have the better race car. His top speed will be 3-4 kph faster and the Aston’s DRS boost is better than that of the McLaren.

Alonso has a poor record here but he is in good from and tenth was his worst result of any of the timed sessions. That suggests his race pace should be better than one lap pace. He was another driver who just didn’t make the soft tyres work in Q3 and that won’t be an issue today.

Norris is in good from aswell but the McLaren needs more in the way of fast corners and fewer straights to show its strengths. As such, Monza was never going to be a great track even for the revised car.

2023 Italian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Alonso to beat Norris @ 2.00 with Ladbrokes

Ladbrokes have their usual groups bets up and Group 4 looks interesting. It is a three driver group with the two Alpine drivers and Alfa Romeo’s Zhou Guanyu.

The Alpine is hamstrung by a lack of horsepower and that counts for a lot at Monza. The Alfa, on the other hand, was the joint fastest car in terms of top speed along with the Ferrari. Zhou blamed his failure to get out of Q1 on being held up by Sainz when on his flying lap.

The car had been improved overnight and like Bottas, he had the pace to make Q2. It is not a fast car, but it does look faster than the Alpine on this track, and he does still start ahead of both.

Alpine may not really mind getting stuffed here as they are trying to get the other teams to allow them to make changes to their power unit to improve power. The power units are supposed to be set in stone until 2026 but if all the teams say it’s OK, it can be done.

Amazingly, the other teams are not having it. Maybe Alpine will use this race weekend as the prime example of just how down on power they are.

2023 Italian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Zhou Guanyu to win Group 4 @ 4.50 with Ladbrokes

-JamesPunt