2023 Japanese GP Outright Betting Preview

The Singapore GP was an extremely exciting affair. The Red Bulls faltered and Carlos Sainz took full advantage. Our raceday bet on George Russell looked good for a long time but he crashed out in the closing stages. We did land two nice winners, Lawson to finish in the points and Hamilton to beat Verstappen. James Punt is back in action this weekend for the 2023 Japanese GP, his outright betting preview is below.

2023 Japanese GP

The Red Bull gravy train was finally derailed in Singapore and quite emphatically so. Neither car made Q3, but they managed something of a recovery to finish fifth and eighth.

The conspiracy theorists will say that it is no coincidence that the technical directive regarding flexible car parts and Red Bulls flop arrived at the same time. The wiser heads, including Toto Wolff, no friend of Red Bull, say no, it was just an outlier which the Singapore track can throw up.

It is not a track that is a big aero track and flexing bodywork wouldn’t play a great part in a car’s performance in any case. It will at Suzuka, so any pointing of fingers should wait until this weekend has finished.

Short Memories

People have short memories. Last year Verstappen went to Singapore on a run of five straight wins and only came seventh. He just struggled all weekend and the same happened again. He then went to Japan and won from pole position. Something similar should be expected come Sunday.

It must be said that it was a fully deserved win for Carlos Sainz and Ferrari. For once, they were foot perfect in the execution of the race.

Sainz showed great racecraft to win the race by going as slowly as possible. He had Leclerc to slow the pack at the start and then he was able to toy with the faster Mercedes in the dying laps. He kept dropping back to allow second place Norris to get DRS, which in turn kept the Mercs at bay.

It also meant he could look after his tyres all the way to the end. Even Leclerc’s choice to start on the soft tyre was a masterstroke. He was then able to jump Rusell at the start and help Sainz to dominate from the front, even in a slower car.

A rare strategic success for the Italian team. Promising signs.

The 2023 Japanese GP Track

Regarded as one of the jewels in the F1 crown, Suzuka is a fast flowing track which is a great test of a car. It is very much a car track. A good driver in a poor car is going to be poor here, the best car should win, even with no more than a competent driver in it.

It was designed by the same man who designed Zandvoort. It was originally commissioned by Honda as a test track and the layout was set to test all aspects of a car’s performance.

There are two fast straights, a hairpin bend, long duration corners, fast sweeping curves, a chicane and a series of five right – left bends, very similar to Silverstone, to test a car’s ability to change direction.

Similar Tracks

Can it be compared to any other current F1 tracks? As a test track, a parallel can be drawn to Barcelona. Silverstone shares some characteristics with Suzuka and Spa to a degree. Zandvoort has a few parallels but this is a much sterner test. Rain often plays a part, but more of that later.

In the Turbo Hybrid era, we have had seven races here. Merecedes won every one from 2014 to 2019 and had three 1-2 finishes. Red Bull broke their monopoly with their own 1-2 finish last year.

That proved the theory that the best car thrives at Suzuka, and Red Bull remains the best car. The hard bit is working out who has the second best car. That has moved around a lot in 2023.

Since 2014, the pole position driver has won four of the seven races and none were won from outside the top three on the grid.

The Attrition rate here is generally low. Five of the seven races saw two or fewer DNF’s and four one or less.

2023 Japanese GP: Driver Records

This was a Merecedes fortress in the turbo Hybrid era. Nobody else got a look in. Since 2014, Hamilton has won four times, had two third places but in the first year of the ground effect cars, the team could only manage fifth and eighth.

Bottas picked up a win and a second place and he had a great record with Mercedes power under his right foot. In last year’s Alfa Romeo he was just fifteenth.

Max Verstappen had three podiums before winning last year with Perez second. The Mexican has a steady record here since 2014, only once out of the points. Esteban Ocon has had four races here and the last three yielded finishes of 6/9/4.

The Teams

Red Bull

I doubt last weekend’s blip will have any effect this weekend. Back to a more traditional racetrack, and one that tests the car’s all round performance, the Red Bull will be the car to beat, and I doubt anyone will.

They had a 1-2 two finish last year and this year’s car has an even bigger level of dominance. Perez needs to get his qualifying sorted out, but even if he doesn’t, he will be able to make up places more easily here than in Singapore. Anything other than second place will be a failure for Perez.

We should remember that this is Honda’s home race and just as Ferrari had new power units for Monza, I suspect Red Bull will have a full complement of horses this weekend, not that they are likely to need them.

Mercedes

Starting to feel some heat from Ferrari for second in the constructor’s title. The gap is now just 24 points and the momentum is with Ferrari.

Mercedes were not great here last year but they went well in Spain, at Silverstone and reasonably well in Belgium this season. They should be looking at a top 6 finish as a minimum, but it will be close between them and McLaren.

Ferrari

Three pole positions from the last four races, two third places and now a race win. Ferrari have turned things around but I expect their race pace problems to be more critical here.

Leclerc was third here last year and they would be happy to get a repeat. Sainz is a man in form but he has never really gone well here.

The lay out of the track does not look Ferrari friendly. Sainz admitted Singapore, with its emphasis on 90 degree corners, suited them. Suzuka is much more about longer duration corners. With higher speeds and forecast high temperatures forecast, tyre degradation is likely to come to the fore for Ferrari this weekend.

Setup Changes

Ferrari have made some setup changes to their car since the August break and it has moved things Sainz’ way. He likes a bit of understeer and that is the direction that the team have taken.

Leclerc says that he is not really comfortable and that he prefers a little oversteer. That explains the shift in performance between the two drivers.

The Ferrari is a strange beast. It has gone very well at the ultra-low downforce Monza, but seems even better on high downforce tracks with lots of short 90 degree corners. Suzuka is neither.

Aston Martin

As Ferrari have turned things round, Aston Martin have started to struggle. Six podiums in the first eight races, just one in the last seven.

Lance Stroll should be fit for this but three points from the last six race weekends suggests he will not be competitive this weekend. They finished sixth and twelfth here last year and something similar looks likely, but the sixth may be asking too much now that McLaren have leap frogged them.

Aston Martin were flattered by Mercedes and McLaren being poor in the early stages of the season, but they have passed Aston Martin by with their upgraded cars and now Aston Martin are looking a bit ordinary. Alonso is showing his grumpy side again, and you know the game is up when that happens.

To illustrate how far Alonso has slipped back, his average finishing position across the first eight races was 3.37, and since just 6.87.

McLaren

Now just 79 points behind Aston Martin with seven races to go. Catching them is a big ask but I suspect they will be very close come the end of the season.

The team brought their second big upgrade of the season to Singapore last weekend. That wasn’t a big aero track but they got plenty of data, a second place and a great recovery drive from Piastri.

The Aussie will have all the new parts on his car this weekend and both drivers are in the hunt for a podium and have very realistic chances. The track lay out looks well suited to their car.

Huge Improvement

Norris first eight races saw an average finishing position of 13.12 but since their first upgrade in Austria it is now 6.12. That is a huge jump in performance. The fact that in his first race with the second upgrade last weekend saw him finish second offers more encouragement.

He, and everyone else, was flattered by Red Bull being off the pace last week, but he really does look like he should be a regular top 6 finisher. On tracks where the high speed cornering strengths of the McLaren are rewarded, he is a solid podium contender.

Piastri has to be considered for a high finish as well. However, Piastri has not raced here before and that will be something of a disadvantage.

Alpine

Who knows? They scored a sixth place in Singapore and they did well here last year, finishing fourth and seventh, but they have struggled on the high speed tracks in 2023. Ocon was running well last week but suffered a gearbox failure. At least one car home in the points should be realistic but with Alpine, you never know.

Williams

Albon was not far off scoring an unlikely point in Singapore, on a track which wasn’t expected to be good for Williams. This is a middling track for them. If Monza was perfect and Monaco the least suited, this is somewhere in between.

The car struggled in Barcelona and Spa, but they did well at Silverstone and the car has been improved since then. Albon can now be considered for a points finish at all but the highest downforce circuits.

Haas

Strangely fast in qualifying last weekend and Magnussen was able to get home in tenth place for a rare point. This will be a much more challenging venue for their car, especially on Sunday.

Alfa Romeo

Never that far from a top 10 finish but they have only managed to do it in one of the last seven races. A high attrition race would seem to be their best chance to score points, and this is rarely one of those.

Alpha Tauri

An upgraded car for last weekend’s race and rookie stand in driver, Liam Lawson finished a creditable ninth. That is two points finishes for the team in the last four races.

This is a home race for Yuki Tsunoda so his head will be turned by all the additional demands on his time. Liam Lawson will continue to deputise for the injured Ricciardo. It will be interesting to see how he goes here as it is a track he knows, having been driving in the Japanese Super Formula series.

Lawson is in second place in that championship and he was fourth in the earlier race at Suzuka this season. As the other Honda powered car in the field, expect their power units to be turned up to 11.

The Weather Forecast

Rain is often a feature of the Japanese GP but this weekend looks like the business end should be dry. Friday will be cloudy and has rain in the forecast, but only a light shower passing through with a 55% chance of very light rain for both practice sessions.

Saturday is set to be dry, sunny and hot, despite high humidity. Race day will see temperatures still in the 30s, a little more in the way of clouds but a less than 5% chance of any rain.

Hot and sunny conditions will up the tyre degradation which is not good news for Ferrari.

Conclusions

A return to a classical racetrack which rewards the car with the best performance means we should expect Red Bull to rebound in style.

Who will be best of the rest this weekend? Ferrari are on a roll but the hotter conditions and track layout are not expected to be as good for them as Monza or Singapore. That said, they have been a hard team to call for much of the season.

Their performance at Barcelona, where Sainz qualified second, suggests they could show some good one lap pace again, but he dropped back to fifth in the race. This weekend may pan out in much the same way.

Mercedes, a pre redesign Mercedes, was also good at Barcelona, finishing second and third, despite starting fourth and twelfth. McLaren have had two major upgrades since they struggled in Spain, but Norris was second at Silverstone and Piastri was mustard in the sprint shootout and sprint race at Spa.

This track looks good for them and the latest upgrades are said to be working well. With both cars running them, they should be right up there, maybe another podium for Norris, or a first for Piastri? Very possibly.

2023 Japanese GP Ante Post Selections

Who to curse this weekend with an ante post selection? I really should just leave the picks until after practice, but this race does look a bit more predictable than most, so I’ll risk a couple.

2023 Japanese GP Tip: 2 points Lando Norris to finish on the podium @ 2.50 with Ladbrokes, Betvictor, Skybet

2023 Japanese GP Tip: 1 point Liam Lawson to finish in the points @ 3.50 with Unibet, Betvictor, Skybet

Due to the time differences the updates this weekend will posted early. Qualifying update will be on Friday afternoon and the race update on Saturday Afternoon.

-JamesPunt