2023 Ayr & Newbury Saturday Tips – DS
2023 Ayr & Newbury Saturday Tips
Dave Stevos has already posted an ante-post tip for the Champions Sprint this week. You can see who he fancies here. We have an exceedingly busy weekend of action ahead with high calibre fare from Scotland, England and across the pond in Ireland. This preview will focus on the UK action, 2023 Ayr & Newbury Saturday tips are below. Irish tips for the Curragh are here.
1.15 Ayr – Virgin Bet Handicap (Class 2)
Usually, Linda Perratt is used to competing at a lower level than this in recent years. She is a trainer who knows the time of day and in Judgement Call, she has a Saturday horse. This son of Pivotal has already won four races, two of them this season.
His last win came the last time David Allan was on board. He absolutely hosed up off 74 at Musselburgh (7f gd), the second most valuable pot he has competed for. At York back in June he also ran a blinder in the best race he has run in to date, beat 2.5l into fifth off 76.
Competitive Off Current Mark
On his penultimate start at this track (7f gd) he proved he could be competitive off his current mark. In that heat he got upset in the stalls but he ran a lovely race to finish 2nd behind Abduction off 79.
Last time out at Musselburgh (7f gd/fm) the usual front runner was ridden more quietly. Keen early, he travelled into the race strongly but he couldn’t maintain his effort and Callum Rodriguez was easy on him in the closing stages.
On the evidence of his dominant win at Musselburgh in August a mile should pose no problems. He hasn’t won at the trip before but he certainly wasn’t slowing down at the finish in that contest. Perratt was likely using that last outing as a prep for this judging by the tactics that were used and I’d expect a much more aggressive ride today given the prize money on offer. If David Allan gets the fractions right, Judgement Call can make a bold bid at odds of 10/1.
2023 Ayr & Newbury Saturday Tips: Judgement Call e/w @ 10/1
1.50 Ayr – Doonside Cup Stakes (Listed)
Just five run in the World Trophy at Newbury so we’ll swerve that race. Unfortunately, only seven run in this Listed heat after the defection of My Prospero. The Irish raider Helvic Dream is very interesting. Noel Meade’s charge ran a grand race last time behind Lafayette in a Curragh G3 (10f gd). It was a welcome positive run because it looked like this former G1 winner was on the downgrade.
A bit of cut in the ground will suit and 10f is his best trip. He is unfortunately too short for the blog at 11/2 but if I was backing one in this, I’d be on him. However, with just two places on offer and none of the outsiders making any real appeal, we’ll sit this one out. No bet.
2023 Ayr & Newbury Saturday Tips: No bet
2.05 Newbury – Autumn Cup Handicap (Class 2)
The last two times Get Shirty raced on soft ground, he won. Last summer he racked up three wins in a row, two of them coming on soft. The first one came at Hamilton (12f sft) off a mark of 95. A 14f Ascot win on good to firm off 99 followed and then he landed another valuable pot at Haydock off 105 (12f sft).
On his next start he ran a cracker to finish 5th off 110 in the Ebor when he would have finished closer to Trawlerman with a kinder passage. Since then, his best two efforts came in the Middle East when twice placed at Meydan and in Saudi at Riyadh.
Decent Ebor Run
This season, the 7yo has yet to rediscover his best form. To be fair, it wasn’t a terrible effort in the Ebor off 101 last month (14f gd/fm). He may have only finished 11th but he was only 7L behind the winner Absurde and around 4L off a place.
The handicapper has now given him a real chance by dropping him to 97. His only previous run on heavy saw him well beat in a G1 but for O’Meara, he has form figures of 111 in handicaps on soft ground.
He is now 8lbs lower than he was for the most recent win and he definitely showed positive signs at York on his penultimate start. In the hope that the testing ground sparks a return to form, Get Shirty is the e/w selection at odds of 11/1.
2023 Ayr & Newbury Saturday Tips: Get Shirty e/w @ 11/1 (3 places)
2.25 Ayr – Ayr Silver Cup (Class 2)
Since 2011 five winners of the Silver Cup were drawn low, five were drawn high and one was drawn in the middle. Ayr usually does a good job of ensuring there is no bias so it usually pays to focus on where the early pace comes from. Last year’s Bronze Cup winner Danzan is drawn in stall 5 and he likes to get on with things. Fast And Loose, runner up to Danzan last year, is another one that likes to go forward so maybe, a low draw could be ideal.
Illusionist is a horse we have previous with. We backed him for 6 places on his first ever run for Grant Tuer and he finished 6th at Royal Ascot at monstrous odds. His last two wins have come at York, in May 2022 and October 2021. Since that last win he has run some big races in defeat, including when a close 4th under Ollie Stammers over this C&D (gd/sft) off 86 three runs ago.
The ground should be identical today and I’d imagine Grant Tuer earmarked this race straight after that run. He is now 3lbs lower than he was for that 1.5l defeat and he comes into this with his trainer in super form. Danzan and Fast And Loose should give Stammers a good target to aim at, hopefully the gaps come at the right times. If they do, Illusionist can hopefully go close at odds of 25/1.
2023 Ayr & Newbury Saturday Tips: Illusionist e/w @ 25/1 (6 places) NAP
2.40 Newbury – Dubai Duty Free Handicap (Class 2)
If Millebosc hadn’t run so poorly on soft ground at Donny last time he’d be of interest here. The son of Le Havre won his sole heavy ground start back in 2020 and he has placed form at the top table in France on soft. His best effort this year came on his seasonal return at York but it was still a way off his peak form.
Maybe this step back up to 10f and a reduced handicap mark might spark a return to form but the 5yo is just hard to fancy on what he has done since moving to William Haggas. His remaining seven rivals are all single figure odds bar Toshizou so we’ll have to sit this race out. No bet.
2023 Ayr & Newbury Saturday Tips: No bet
3.00 Ayr – Firth Of Clyde (Group 3)
An interesting G3 sprint for juvenile fillies. We found Barefoot Angel in this last season and she was Richard Fahey’s second winner of this race in three years. However, Archie Watson won it in 2021 with 16/1 poke Nazanin and this year, he relies on Imperiality.
By Exceed And Excel, this filly showed clear promise over 5f on her first two starts. Both on good to firm, she finished a good third at Lingfield on debut before getting a shade outpaced when finishing fourth at Chepstow. On her third start Watson stepped her up to 6f on good to soft at Hamilton and she bounced out and made all for a near 3l win. The 2nd and 3rd from that race have both won since.
The handicapper gave Imperiality a mark of 82 for that Hamilton win. That leaves her with a chunk to find with the top rated horses here but she is bred to be better than that. Her dam was third in the Coronation Stakes at Ascot and she is closely related to multiple G2/G3 winner Echo Of Light.
Another cause for optimism is Archie Watson’s record at Ayr. The Lambourn handler has had 44 previous runners here, landing 12 winners and 15 top 4 finishes. The owner Zhang Yusheng had a big priced winner here earlier this week, hopefully Imperiality can go close for him too at odds of 22/1.
2023 Ayr & Newbury Saturday Tips: Imperiality e/w @ 22/1
3.15 Newbury – Mill Reef Stakes (Group 2)
Back down in trip and returned to easier ground, Spanish Phoenix could outrun his odds here. He is by Phoenix Of Spain and if you told me I’d be tipping up one of his sons on heavy after I watched him absolutely hose up in the Irish Guineas on rattling quick ground, I’d have laughed at you.
However, this colt seemed to relish a bit of cut when winning at Leicester (5f sft) and he followed that up with a respectable effort when beat 5L in the Coventry. On his last two outings on good to soft it has looked like he hasn’t got home over 7f. He has been far too keen and I’m hoping that the likely strong gallop here should help him to settle better.
At least four of his rivals have made all to win in recent races. It could be a proper battle to get an early lead and that should enable James Doyle to get his mount to race more evenly and not pull so hard. His best run came when held up at Royal Ascot and a repeat of that could be enough to nick some place money here. At odds of 25/1, a small e/w interest on Spanish Phoenix is advised.
2023 Ayr & Newbury Saturday Tips: Spanish Phoenix e/w @ 25/1
3.35 Ayr – Ayr Gold Cup (Class 2)
The highlight of Ayr’s Western Meeting is the Gold Cup. 6f is the trip and a maximum field of 25 will fight it out for a total purse of £180k (£92k to the winner). Last year Summerghand won after getting a lovely tow into the race from the early pace setter on the near side Mr Wagyu. He beat Commanche Falls into second but the 9yo is 5lbs higher for his repeat bid. That might just be enough to stop him.
At 18s, I’ll instead take a chance on one drawn low. Probe will start from stall 4 and he looks an ideal type for this race. On his last start at 6f on good to soft ground he produced a career best at Newmarket, beating Chairmanoftheboard by over a length off 90. With Frederick Larson’s claim, he is effectively just 2lbs higher here.
He is drawn close to Aleezdancer (5), Lethal Levi (6) and Paws For Thought (7). All three of those horses have front run in the past and they should set the race up for a closer. I’m willing to put a line through Probe’s last three runs on account of fast ground at Epsom and Ascot and 7f at Newmarket. He won like a proper horse at HQ back in May and if he can rediscover that form, Probe can run huge at odds of 25/1.
