2023 Japanese GP Raceday Update

James Punt landed a big 4 point bet in Qualifying yesterday. His 5 point ante-post bet on Red Bull to win the Constructor’s is on the brink of being landed too.  He is back in action with more bets for this morning’s big race, his 2023 Japanese GP raceday update is below.

2023 Japanese GP Raceday Preview

It’s all over bar the shouting as Verstappen has set up another win for Red Bull and they should wrap up the Constructor’s Championship tomorrow. There are still six races after this but such is their dominance, they have closed things out very early.

We had a 5 point bet at 1.67 for Red Bull to win the constructors championship, so you should see a nice deposit in your betting account if you made the bet.

Max Untouchable

Verstappen has been untouchable this weekend. Fastest in every session and this looks like one of those races where it is a matter of by how much he wins by.

His biggest winning margin was by 33.371 seconds in Hungary, followed by 27.921 in Monaco, both slower, high downforce tracks. He won in Belgium by 22.305 in a 1-2 finish for Red Bull. Something similar looks likely.

Verstappen goes off as the 1.18 favourite and as usual, it is a question of who will fill the other podium positions.

We have backed Lando Norris to get a podium and by qualifying third, he is now a 1.65 shot to do so. The threats to that bet landing are his own teammate Oscar Piastri, who qualified in second place, and the second Red Bull of Perez.

Plodding Perez

Perez must have left the handbrake on again as Verstappen was very nearly 0.6 seconds clear of Piastri while Perez was 0.773 slower than his teammate on pole. Perez is a very poor qualifier but he does go better over a race distance.

The tyre degradation has been higher than usual this weekend and that is something that plays into the hands of Red Bull and tyre management is one of Perez’ strengths.

The McLaren duo just laughed when asked if they could challenge Verstappen in the race. Norris pointed out that the Red Bull is a better race car than qualifier and this is as close as they will get to him all weekend. Perez will be hard to keep behind and they know it.

Make Up Places

Perez qualified fifth at Monza and finished second. On average he has made up 4.87 places over his qualifying position in 2023. Both McLaren drivers, post upgrade, basically finish where they start.

They were concerned about the two Ferraris starting fourth and sixth, but with tyre degradation set to be high, I doubt they will be able to match McLaren over a race distance.

The Mercedes was found out by the challenges of Suzuka. It isn’t a good car unless it finds a track that it likes. Their race pace is usually decent but a lack of rear end grip is holding them back and tyre wear might be more of a problem for them than is usual on a Sunday.

Podium Places

The spare podium places do look to be up for grabs by the two McLarens and Perez. A Red Bull 1-2 looks likely and then it is a toss-up as to which McLaren.

Norris has finished second in three of the last six races, so he knows how to get the job done. Piastri has managed a fourth place finish at Silverstone but it is only a matter of time before he gets his maiden podium.

We have already backed Norris for a podium and I’ll leave it at that.

What about the top 6? Mercedes and Ferrari should be fighting for the remaining two places. Ferrari have the faster car, but over a race distance? I have to fancy the Mercedes.

Tsunoda Surprising

The only surprise in the top 10 is Yuki Tsunoda. He has made Q3 just twice before in 2023, both on street circuits. The upgrades introduced last week must have done the trick.

Our bet on Lawson to reach Q3 lost by 0.044 seconds. He had run out of new soft tyres for his final run and that was the difference.

Alonso is the Aston Martin meat in an Alpha Tuari sandwich. Alonso failed to finish in the top 10 for the first time in 2023 in Singapore and he should be fancied to get back to scoring again, but Alpha Tuari will not be so easy to dismiss.

The Spaniard will have more new tyres available which won’t do his chances any harm. Lawson can be backed at 3.25 to finish in the points and he won’t be far off.

2023 Japanese GP Raceday Bets

There aren’t that many opportunities jumping out at me. Both Red Bulls to finish on the podium @ 1.80 makes some appeal. They have managed that in eight of the fifteen races so far, which is a bit disappointing given the car, but Perez just qualifies too far down the order at times.

However, this is a car track and the Red Bull is the dominant machine in 2023. It should be rewarded with a 1-2, or at worst, a 1-3. The dual forecast (Red Bull 1-2 in either order) is a bit riskier, but the odds are good enough to take it on.

2023 Japanese GP raceday Tip: 2 points Verstappen/Perez dual forecast @ 3.25 with Betfred

There is one group bet with a bit of value. Ladbrokes have Stroll, the two Alfa Romeos and the two Haas in a group and it looks much of a match between Stroll and Bottas. In the last seven races, Stroll has won this four times, Bottas twice and Zhou once.

The two Haas are likely to struggle more than usual with the tyre deg being very high. Bottas starts 16th, Stroll 17th. Stroll has the better car and so long as he doesn’t do something silly, he should be able to convert that into a better race.

2023 Japanese GP raceday Tip: 1 point Lance Stroll to win Group 4 @ 2.65 with Ladbrokes

-JamesPunt