2023 Monday World Grand-Prix Darts Preview – JP
2023 Monday World Grand-Prix Match Previews
The World Grand-Prix kicks off in Leicester tonight. James Punt has already penned a comprehensive, player by player betting preview. You can read that here. Check out his 2023 Monday World Grand-Prix match previews below.
Dirk van Duijvenbode vs. Brendan Dolan
A real clash of styles for the tournament opener. We have the fast throwing, power scorer in the shape of Dirk van Duijvenbode, against the steady grinder, Brendan Dolan.
Dirk is the 1.41 favourite with Dolan 3.25. Their H2H record says the value is with Dolan. They have met eight times and both have won four.
Dirk has won six of his last ten matches and while not a model of consistency, his good stuff has been very good, including a 115 average in a PC23 match on Thursday. Something similar and he can march on to round two.
Dolan Needs Fast Start
Dolan won seven of his last ten matches last week and there were some good performances. If Dolan can get in quickly and Dirk misses the odd in shot, that would help him negate some of the scoring power advantage the Dutchman holds. If it goes the other way, Dolan is in trouble.
Dolan has only won one of his last seven first round matches in this event, Dirk his last two. Both are former finalists, But Dolan’s was way back in 2011.
Much of their H2H form is old and their most recent match was in the 2022 World Cup, which Dirk won 4-3. That was their only TV match. The majority of their matches have been close but they have never played in a short set based match before.
Dirk has conceded a set in two of his three Grand Prix first round matches, Dolan has won at least one set in eight of his last twelve Grand Prix first rounds.
2023 Monday World Grand-Prix Tip: 0.5 point Dirk van Duijvenbode to win 2-1 @ 4.00 with SpreadEx
Jose de Sousa vs. Gary Anderson
Anderson’s sensational performances in last week’s Players Championships resulted in a quarter final, a semi-final and a win.
That was sixteen wins from eighteen matches and no less than thirteen ton plus averages. His seasonal average was propelled to a whopping 98.80 and his seasonal win rate is 70.4%, his highest since 2018. Not bad form coming into this tournament.
Jose de Sousa’s seasonal average has now slipped to 93.27 and his win rate 59%. He played eight matches last week and won five. It was no more than an OK performance.
Level H2H
These two have only met four times and it is 2-2. Three of those matches were in 2021 when De Sousa was at his peak.
De Sousa has only won one match in his three Grand Prix appearances but he actually played well in all but the one match he won. That was a 2-0 win over Glen Durrant in 2021 when Glen was in terminal decline.
Anderson has lost his last two first round matches here, but he has won eight by a 2-0 margin. Given his form, another would be no surprise. He is only 2.60 to do so and we have invested in him to win the whole shebang. No bet.
2023 Monday World Grand-Prix Tip: No Bet
Krzysztof Ratajski vs. James Wade
Their H2H record is interesting. 5-2 to Wade, but it is the Pole who has won their last two. However, this will be their first match on TV and Ratajski is a better floor player than stage player.
James Wade is regarded as a master finisher, comfortable on the outer ring and this should be a good format for him, and it has been, but not for some time. Since finishing as runner up in 2014, Wade has not progressed beyond the second round and only won two first round matches.
Both are in reasonable form and look well matched. It is hard to call a winner. Wade is the 1.83 favourite, Ratajski on the drift at 2.00.
Ratajski has played four first round matches and won two and he has always got a set on the scoreboard. Five of Wade’s last eight have required a deciding set.
2023 Monday World Grand-Prix Tip: 1 point over 2.5 sets @ 1.91 generally available
Martin Schindler vs. Raymond van Barneveld
There is a chasm in terms of tournament experience here. This will be Barney’s fourteenth appearance and only Schindler’s second.
Schindler lost on debut last year, losing 0-2 to Gerwyn Price. His task is a little easier this year but Barney will be no push over. RVB has only ever lost two first round matches and comes here in as good form as Schindler.
The German has lost five of his last ten, Barney won six of his last ten. Neither have been burning things up, but they are playing OK. Their stats are very similar scoring wise but Barney is a little better on the doubles.
Their H2H record is 4-3 to Barney and they have met twice this year with one win each. It is very hard to get excited about this match, it could go either way, it could be close, maybe it should be close, but neither are that consistent and in a very short format, anything could happen.
Schindler is the 1.91 favourite, Van Barneveld the 2.00 outsider. A match bereft of value and I’ll happily skip this one. No bet.
2023 Monday World Grand-Prix Tip: No Bet
Nathan Aspinall vs. Stephen Bunting
This one is more interesting. Stepehen Bunting has been playing eye-catching darts of late. His switch to a significantly heavier dart seems to have transformed his form.
His seasonal average has crept up to over 95 and his seasonal win rate to 65.6%, his highest since 2014 and that was the year he won the BDO World Championship, when that meant something.
It was also the year he reached the Grand Prix semi-final for the first time. He struggled in the tournament after that with just two matches won until he reached the semi-final again in 2021.
In Form Bunting
Bunting has won seven of his last ten matches. Two of his losses came against the bang in-form Gary Anderson and the other was a 106 average in defeat to Christian Kist. In his last thirteen matches he has hit nine ton plus averages and only one sub 97.
That is top class scoring and on a hugely consistent basis. His lowest was a 94.4 against Anderson in the semi-final of PC24 on Friday.
Nathan Aspinall, the Matchplay champion, has lost five of his last ten matches and he has been playing well, if a little inconsistently. Three sub 90 averages and couple of low 90s to go with two ton plus and two high 90s.
His tournament record is good, with a quarter final in 2019 and he was runner up last year. There were two first round defeats in between.
Their H2H record is 4-4 and it was Bunting who edged their only meeting in 2023, a 6-5 win at the Masters.
Aspinall is the 1.65 favourite with Bunting the 2.38 outsider. We have backed Bunting to win the quarter but he looks good enough value to back him here.
2023 Monday World Grand-Prix Tip: 1 point Stephen Bunting to win @ 2.38 with Boylesports, Betfred, Hills, Betvictor
Gerwyn Price vs. Danny Noppert
Gerwyn Price skipped last week’s Players Championships, preferring to prepare at home. His form isn’t quite as warm as most but when we last saw him, he was losing the semi-final of the Hungarian Darts Trophy to Luke Humphries or losing to Keegan Brown in the first round of the World Series Finals.
Price did win PC21 a month ago and PC18 in August. The fact is that he hasn’t won a stage event since a Euro Tour back in April and it’s over a year since his last TV title. That may not bode well for his chances of winning come Sunday, but he has won eight of his last ten matches.
Danny Noppert did play last week and played well, winning PC22 on Wednesday and he too has won eight of his last ten matches.
Price Enjoys This Event
Price has enjoyed a lot of success in this format in the last three years, winning it in 2020, runner up in 2021 and he was a semi-finalist last year. He hasn’t lost a first round match since 2019 and only three since his debut in 2015.
Noppert was a semi-finalist in 2021 and he has won four of his five first round matches in the Grand Prix. Both have good first round records, but one of them has to lose.
Their H2H record is a very emphatic 10-3 to Price and he has won their last seven in a row. He also beat Noppert 2-0 in a first round match in this back in 2018, Noppert’s only first round loss. Price is 5-1 in their TV matches.
Iceman Fav
Price is the 1.37 favourite with Noppert 3.10. Noppert is playing well enough to cause Price problems, but Price has Noppert’s number. He is 3-0 in 2023 and won their last two 6-1.
Price has played eight first round matches and won four 2-0 and those four came in his last five. Noppert has won his last four first round matches, three of them 2-0 and one was over MVG, so he is no stranger to a shock result in this format.
It is a tough match to get a grip on. Price looks the more likely winner but Noppert has a puncher’s chance in this format and he is in good form. Both have tended to win their first round matches and win to nil. I’ll take a chance on another 2-0, but leave it open as to whom
2023 Monday World Grand-Prix Tip: 1 point under 2.5 sets @ 1.81 with Unibet
Michael Smith vs. Callan Rydz
Smith has a pretty dreadful record in this event. He has played in nine Grand Prix and won just two first round matches and he has never gone beyond round two.
This will be his first time playing as a major winner and World Champion. Will that be enough to improve on that record? His recent form sees seven wins from his last ten matches, but it must be said that his performances have been inconsistent. Six of his last ten have since averages of 93 or less.
Can Rydz Capitalise?
The question has to be, is Callan Rydz good enough to inflict more woes on Smith at the Grand Prix? Yes, but only if he can bring something like his A game. Rydz’ recent form is not good, losing six of his last ten matches and hitting six averages of 93 or less, just as Smith has done.
Their H2H record got a refresh last week when they met in PC22. Smith was the 6-4 winner and he averaged 101.3. Smith has played Rydz four times and won all four, once every year for the last four.
Bully Boy is the 1.38 favourite and Rydz 3.25. Rydz’ form doesn’t inspire much confidence, but this short format gives him a reasonable chance.
Smith’s confidence is fragile. He hasn’t quite got used to his new darts yet, or at least played at his best with them on a regular basis. At the odds, there is only one bet to make, but to minimum stakes.
The best bet may be on over 2.5 sets. Of Smith’s ten first round matches, seven have gone to a deciding leg.
2023 Monday World Grand-Prix Tip: 1 point over 2.5 sets @ 2.20 with SpreadEx
2023 Monday World Grand-Prix Tip: 0.5 point Callan Rydz to win @ 3.25 generally available
Rob Cross vs. Andrew Gilding
Another interesting match. Rob Cross has played in six Grand Prix and won just two first round matches and never made the third round. Gilding has played in three and won one first round match, but that was back in 2014.
Goldfinger is a better player in 2023, he is a major winner and more confident. He is also decent on double 20 with a 41% strike rate in TV/streamed matches over the last 12 months.
Cross’ favoured double is 18, but it is Gilding who has been better on that with 50% to Cross’ 44%, although Cross is on a much bigger sample size. Not exactly a scientific case, but a warning that Cross has no real advantage in this format, especially in such a short match.
Out Of Form
Cross has lost four of his last five matches but Gilding is not much better, winning just two of his last five and both have lost five of their last ten. Their H2H record is 1-1, both relatively close floor matches in 2022.
Cross is the 1.44 favourite with Gilding a 2.88 shot. Like pretty much all the outsiders, Gilding is being backed. I couldn’t back him with too much enthusiasm, but any value lies with Goldfinger to minimum stakes only.
I’ll try and get a maximum return on a minimum stake and go for a correct score and Cross’ fourth 0-2 first round defeat.
