2023 Qatar GP Qualifying Update

James Punt has already penned a comprehensive outright betting preview. See that here. His 2023 Qatar GP qualifying update is below.

2023 Qatar GP Qualifying

The one and only free practice session for this weekend’s action was of limited use, to put it mildly. This was the first time the F1 cars had run on the brand new tarmac.

Not only was it brand new tarmac, it was very dusty, especially offline. To add another fly in the ointment, the wind was gusty, making the cars unpredictable into various corners.

Evolution will be word of the day as the track cleans up and rubbers up. The lap times will fall lap by lap, so the drivers will need to time their runs to perfection. However, it looks very easy to run offline, onto the dust and off the track limits. Expect many deleted lap times.

Ideally, the drivers will want to try and get a banker lap in before trying another late in the session. Inevitably there will be hard luck stories. Do not be surprised to see one or two fancied drivers getting caught out.

Max Fastest In FP

What we did learn is that Verstappen was still fastest, so at least that looks nearly set in stone. Perez was 5th but with potential pitfalls galore, do not be surprised if he finds one.

The soft tyre was way faster than the medium, a function of the low grip surface and lack of rubber on it. McLaren, Aston Martin and Alpine did not use any soft tyres, saving them for when it is important.

Alonso was still fourth fastest and attracted some positive comment for that. I would point out that he was 6th fastest in Japan on Friday but only qualified 10th. This track requires similar qualities to Suzuka, which was confirmed by one of Aston Martin’s development drivers in commentary. I would expect Alonso to drop back to nearer 8th later.

McLaren In The Mix

We have invested in McLaren this weekend and they didn’t run the softs but they got a 2nd a 3rd on the mediums. Piastri had the edge on Norris, who didn’t manage to string his three sectors together. If he does, he still looks to be in the mix for the front two rows, as does Piastri.

Ferrari ended the session 2nd and 3rd but they had to use softs to get there. Like Alonso, they were quick on Friday in Suzuka before dropping back in qualifying.

This session is not a great one to be getting involved in. It will be a bit like a wet-drying qualifying session with luck a fairly big variable. Mistakes could be punished with lap time deletions so expect a bit of a mixed up grid for Sunday’s race.

Tomorrow is another day, set aside for the Sprint Shootout and Sprint race, but this qualifying session is to set the grid for the race proper.

Verstappen Fav

Max Verstappen is the 1.40 favourite to be the fastest qualifier and given that the track layout is suiting the Red Bull, he will be hard to stop, with the proviso that there are banana skins around the track with the dirty track, evolving surface and gusty winds. But he is very good at finding his way round those.

He lost out in Singapore and Monza, but they are outliers. The only time I was surprised that he didn’t get pole in the last ten or so races was Hungary were he missed out by a tiny margin.

We are really looking at any driver who might come second at odds which make an e/w bet attractive or find a place only market.

Both McLarens look the most likely to be vying for a front row slot. The two Ferraris have good one lap pace so they can’t be ruled out, but that looks about it.

Perez in the other Red Bull hasn’t qualified better than 3rd in the last eleven qualifying sessions and with tricky conditions, I will rule him out. Norris is 11.00 to be fastest qualifier (1/3rd the odds 1-2), Piastri 13.00. Sainz 13.00 and Leclerc 13.00. None get the vote at the odds.

Any Surprises?

Any surprises to make Q3? The two Alpha Tauris maybe. Tsunoda ended up 6th earlier on the softs so the car has some pace. They were 9th and 11th in Suzuka and something similar is not an unreasonable expectation.

It is hard to get too excited about this season punting wise. It is higher risk than usual, but the likely contenders are the same. You can go for a good thing, and they make a mistake in Q1 and are out.

Lando Norris is 2.00 to qualify in the top 3 which on a ‘normal’ track would be fine, but with the added random factors, no thanks.

Sainz to out qualify Leclerc at 1.86 isn’t a bad shout. He is the better driver in low grip conditions and has out qualified his teammate in three of the last four. Again, the value is limited given the risks on an evolving track.

Roll The Dice

I will roll the dice on a very speculative bet. Alpha Tauri are benefiting from their recent upgrade. The car isn’t more than a top ten fringe player but they were 9th and 11th at Suzuka.

Lawson didn’t make it as he had used up all his new soft tyres before his final Q2 run. He only just missed out while Tsunoda qualified 9th. Lawson was only 19th in FP1 but he may have made a mistake, we didn’t see his run, but Tsunoda was quick on the softs.

They qualified 4th and 8th here back and 2021, which may be clutching at straws, but clutch I shall!

2023 Qatar GP qualifying Tip: 1 point both Alpha Tauris to reach Q3 @ 6.00 with Ladbrokes

-JamesPunt